DOC

Stainless Forging Industry, Incdoc

By Lori Russell,2014-11-18 13:53
11 views 0
Stainless Forging Industry, IncdocStainl

Del Laboratories Inc.

Research Report

Prepared by:

Adriana Kalova

    Charles Yan

    Priya Hariani

    Ronny Veith

Del Laboratories: Research Report

Del Laboratories Inc.

    Personal Care Products: Cosmetics and Pharmaceuticals

    DLI - $24.35 HOLD

     Stock Data Forecasts 2003E 2004E

    52-week range $14.62-$25.99 Revenue ($ m) 402.5 446.7

     Shares o/s (m) 8.66 Revenue growth (%) 11% 11%

     Float (%) 54.3% EBIT ($m) 24.15 26.8

     Market Cap. ($m) $210.9 FCF($ m) 7.6 8.5

     End-2002 price target $23.26 FCF/share $0.89 $0.99

     S&P 400 MidCap 447.3

    ; We are placing a hold rating with a year-end price target of $23.26

    on the stock of Del Laboratories Inc. While, we feel that DLI still has

    the potential to exhibit strong future growth, we believe that this

    growth is already accounted for in the share price.

    ; Del Lab’s strongest brand is Sally Hansen. In 2002 Del Lab’s

    introduced successfully introduced two new products in this line

    increasing their market share to 26% in the nail care category.

    ; Discounted cash analysis is used to value Del Lab’s. We estimate a

    future growth rate in sales of 11% for the next five years, followed

    by a long-term growth rate of 5%. We used the weighted average

    cost of capital of 8.61% to discount future cash flows to present

    value and arrive at our expected year-end share price.

    ; Year-to date net income is $13.1 million, an increase of $5.4

    million or 7% over the previous year. Sales also increased to

    $268.4million, compared to $226 million in 2001, an increase of

    18.7%.

     - 1 -

Del Laboratories: Research Report

Investment Summary

    We are placing a hold rating with a year-end price target of $23.26 on the stock of Del Laboratories Inc. Year-to date net income is $13.1 million, an increase of $5.4 million or 7% over the previous year. Sales also increased to $268.4million, compared to $226 million in 2001, an increase of 18.7%. While, we feel that DLI still has the potential to exhibit strong future growth, we believe that this growth is already accounted for in the share price.

    In 1999, the cosmetics division had net sales of $203.5 million, a decrease of $10.2 million or 4.8% over previous years. Operating profits for the division were negative with a loss of $11.938 million, compared to a profit of $ 10.38million. The loss was primarily due to increased product returns, lower sales and increase in inventory valuation reserve. Since then the company has revamped its Naturistics line of cosmetics, introduced N.Y.C. New York Color and enhanced Sally Hansen line of nail color. We believe that the 1999 issue is behind the company and expect sales to grow at 11% for the next five years and then at a long-term growth rate of 5%.

     Using a discounted cash flow analysis and a weighted average cost of capital we find the 2002-year end value of $23.26. Our analysis is based on portfolio of brands, leading market share of Sally Hansen line, history of product innovation and competitive analysis.

Valuation

Relative Stock Performance

    Del Laboratories Inc. has a one-year return of 57%, and has outperformed the S&P 400 MidCap Index by 65.5%. It also outperformed the S&P Personal Products Index by 60%.

    The performance of the company was due to continued positive growth in the cosmetics business led by the Sally Hansen brand of products. We believe that the cosmetics division will continue to exhibit strong growth in the future. The company introduced two successful Sally Hansen products in 2002. These products are sold through mass merchandisers like Wal-Mart & Target. Since Wal-Mart and Target are continuing to expand, we expect the company to continue to exhibit strong growth in sales. DLI vs. S&P 400 MidCap Index DLI vs. S&P Personal Products Index

     Source: Yahoo Finance Source: Hoovers Online

    Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

    We used discounted cash flow analysis to value the firm. We did a competitive and historical analysis for growth in sales and project sales to continue to grow at 11% for the next five years. Cost of goods sold and selling and general administrative expenses are estimated to remain at

     - 2 -

Del Laboratories: Research Report

    42% and 52% of sales respectively, based on the last 5-year average. The company disposed of property in 1999 and 2000. EBIT for 1999 and 2000 is adjusted to eliminate gains from sale of these properties, as we do not consider these gains as part of operating income.

    We expect futures capital expenditures to equal depreciation expense. We also estimated changes in working capital as 2% of sales. We subtract increases in working capital from EBIT (after taxes) to arrive at free cash flow. We discounted the free cash flows by weighted average cost of capital.

    DLI has senior notes outstanding that are not rated by the major rating agencies. We find DLI to be comparable to Bausch & Lomb, a BBB- rated company. DLI’s current borrowings mature in

    less than five years, with majority of it due between 3-5 years. Bausch & Lomb’s 5-year BBB-

    rated bonds are currently trading at 6.95%, and this is used as DLI’s cost of debt.

Cost of Debt

Company Interest Coverage Debt/Equity Current Ratio

    Ratio’2001 (mrq) (mrq)

Del Laboratories 3.60 0.88 2.33

    Bausch & Lomb 2.40 0.76 1.31

Source: Multex Investor

    Using CAPM inputs we find cost of equity to be only 5.815%. Since, equity of a company represents claims on residual assets only, a lower cost of equity compared to debt is not reasonable. Hence we used an alternative method to compute cost of equity, as a 3% premium over the cost of debt.

    Based on our analysis, and using a terminal growth rate of 5% we find the intrinsic value of the share price at the end of 2002 to be $ 23.26/share.

    As of Nov26, 2002, the stock was trading at $24.35. Since, the stock is trading close to its intrinsic value, we do not expect the stock to continue to outperform. We believe that future earnings justify the current stock price and therefore we rate the stock a HOLD.

     - 3 -

    Del Laboratories: Research Report

    Valuation - Free Cash Flow to the Firm

     E2007 E2006 E 2005 E 2004 E 2003 E 2002 2001 2000

    Net Sales 611,036,046 550,482,924 495,930,562 446,784,291 402,508,370 362,620,153 332,679,039 294,883,279 11%

     % of Sales CGS 256,635,139 231,202,828 208,290,836 187,649,402 169,053,515 152,300,464 145,957,178 129,721,382 42% S&A 317,738,744 286,251,121 257,883,892 232,327,831 209,304,352 188,562,480 163,781,121 149,055,510 52% EBIT 36,662,163 33,028,975 29,755,834 26,807,057 24,150,502 21,757,209 22,940,740 16,106,387 EBIT (1-tax) 23,830,406 21,468,834 19,341,292 17,424,587 15,697,826 14,142,186 14,911,481 10,630,215 Cap Ex 5,430,000 5,552,000 7,850,000 Dep. & Amort. 5,545,000 8,504,377 7,768,103 2.5% Chg. In WC 12,220,721 11,009,658 9,918,611 8,935,686 8,050,167 5,450,022 -10,488,858 11,193,836 2%

    Cash Flow to Firm (EBIT (1-tax rate) + Depreciation & Amortization - Cap Ex - Change in Working Capital) FCFF 11,609,685 10,459,176 9,422,681 8,488,902 7,647,659 8,807,164 28,352,716 -645,518

    Lt. Growth Rate 5% WACC 8.61% Terminal Value 337,497,951 PV. of FCFF 261,651,985 Weight of Equity 0.765 FCFE 200,074,407 Shares Outstanding 8,600,000

     $/Share $ 23.26

    Cost of Capital Calculations

    Cost Of Debt 6.95% YTM of Bausch & Lomb's currently outstanding 5 yr bonds. (issued 11/21/02 due 11/21/07) Source: Stock Val Bond Pricing Information

    Cost of Equity

     Risk Free Rate + (beta* Market Risk Premium) Alternative Cost of Equity

    Risk Free Rate 4% Cost of Debt 6.95% Beta 0.33 Equity Risk Premium 3.00% Market Premium 5.50% Cost of Equity 5.815% Cost of Equity 9.95%

    Shares Outstanding 8,600,000 Market Price (Weekly) $ 23.60 (Nov 18, 2002) Mkt. Value of Equity 202,960,000 0.75 Book Value of Debt 66,328,239 0.25 Tax Rate 35% Weighted Average Cost of Capital - After Tax 8.61%

     - 4 -

Del Laboratories: Research Report

    Business Description

    Del Laboratories Inc. manufacturers, markets and distributes cosmetics and over-the-counter pharmaceuticals. Principal cosmetics products are sold under well known brand names as: Sally Hansen Hard as Nails and Sally Hansen Professional Nail (nail care and nail color

    products); CornSilk (face make-up); N.Y.C. New York Color (color cosmetics); LaCross (beauty

    implements) and Naturistics (color cosmetics and bath and body care). Over-the-counter

    pharmaceuticals products include oral analgesics, acne treatment products, first aid products and eye/ear medications.

    Segment Operating Income 2001Segment Net Sales 2001Total: $22,940,740Total: $332,679,039

    21%

    49%51%79%

    CosmeticsCosmeticsPharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals

    Cosmetics Division

    Sally Hansen is the biggest brand of the company and a market leader. In the nail treatment segment (products used to strengthen, treat and harden natural nails) Sally Hansen dominates with over 50% of the market share. A constant stream of new products like Sally Hansen Diamond Strength Instant Nail Hardener lets the company maintain its leadership. It also leads the color polish category with a 26% market share. The launch of Sally Hansen Chromes Nail Make-up in 2002 was a success; sales are up by 44%.

    LaCross is also a leading brand in the beauty implements segment of the market. Sales of nail clippers; abrasives and tweezers have been steadily rising for the last three years. LaCross is second dominant brand in this segment, just 4 share points behind Revlon.

    (Source: Nielsen Scantrack US-FDM period ending 6/15/02 www.ecrm online.com/Expose/V5_3/nail.htm)

    The other brands of the company are targeted at the lower end of the market. N.Y.C. New York Color offers a complete range of color cosmetics for mass merchandise at retail prices from $0.99 to $1.99. This line of cosmetics was introduced in 1999. Naturistics is another cosmetic brand of the company.

    In 1999, the cosmetics division had net sales of $203.5 million, a decrease of $10.2 million or 4.8% over previous years. Operating profits for the division were negative with a loss of $11.938 million, compared to a profit of $ 10.38million. The decrease in sales and profits market was due to increase in returns and lower shipments of the Naturistics brand, a result of market repositioning of the line, and an increase in the inventory valuation reserve to reflect the estimated market value of the Naturistics inventory to reduce excess and slow moving inventory of this brand. N.Y.C New York Color introduced in 1999 helped to partially offset the effect of Naturistics brand.

    Sales and operating profits recovered in 2000 and 2001. Net sales increased to $229 and $262 million respectively. Operating profit was $4.99 million and $11.65 million in 2000 and 2001. The increase was primarily due to volume growth in the Sally Hansen family of brands and in N.Y.C.

     - 5 -

Del Laboratories: Research Report

    New York Color, as well as reduced product returns of the Naturistics cosmetics and bath & body care line.

    Future Outlook: In cosmetics customers are continuously seeking products that deliver better performance and the newest fashion looks. Manufacturers need to continuously adapt to changing trends and introduce new products. The company launched two new products in 2002; Sally Hansen Diamond Strength Instant Nail Hardener and Sally Hansen Chromes Nail Make, introduced the N.Y.C. New York Color Cosmetics in 1999 and revamped its Naturistics line of cosmetics and bath and body care. We believe that the company is poised for continued sales growth.

Over the counter pharmaceuticals division

The main brands in the pharmaceutical division are:

    Orajel offers a wide range of products to meet the oral care needs of adult and babies. Adult products include tooth pain relievers, mouth aids, dentures, cleaners for sore mouths and gums. Baby products include teething pain medicines and tooth and gum cleansers.

    Pronto is the line of lice and egg treatment products. Products include shampoos, sprays and complete kits, for lice and egg removal. It also sells a range of lice and egg removal combs for different hair types.

    Propo PH and Dermarest are skin care products. Propo PH is acne treatment products targeted at teens. The line includes face wash, astringent cleansers, peel-off-masks and overnight treatment. Dermarest is designed to treat psoriasis (a chronic skin condition in which patches of new cells mature quickly, creating a rosy patch causing irritation and itching). Products include shampoo and conditioners, scalp treatment, moisturizers for skin treatment.

    Arthicare line is targeted at women with arthritis. Products include pain-relieving creams for use at different times during the day.

    In 1999, pharmaceutical division had net sales of $63.3 million and a profit of $9.3 million. In 2001 sales increased to $70.4million and profits to $11.3 million. The increase was primarily due to volume growth of the Orajel brand of oral analgesics and the Dermarest brand of psoriasis treatment. The operating margins for this division have continuously been at 16%. However, this division competes with the over the counter segments of major pharmaceutical companies like Wyeth, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and the health care segment of Proctor & Gamble and Colgate Palmolive.

    Both cosmetics and pharmaceutical products are sold principally in the United States and Canada to wholesalers and to drug stores, food stores and other mass merchandisers. Major customers in the mass-market channel include Wal-Mart, K-Mart, Target, CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid and Eckerd. Wal-Mart accounted for 23% of net sales for 2001 and Walgreens 11.6% of net sales for 2001, and no other single customer accounted for more than 10% of net sales.

    In January 2002 K-Mart filed a bankruptcy petition for reorganization under Chapter XI of the U.S. Bankruptcy court. Del Laboratories resumed shipping to K-Mart subsequent to their receipt of new debtor-in-possession financing. However, Del Labs increased provision for doubtful accounts by $3,100,000 to account for the K-Mart Chapter XI bankruptcy filing.

    Year-to date net income is $13.1 million, an increase of $5.4 million or 7% over the previous year. Sales also increased to $268.4million, compared to $226 million in 2001, an increase of 18.7%.

     - 6 -

Del Laboratories: Research Report

    Industry Analysis

    Del Laboratories operates within two consumer industries: household nondurable for its cosmetic and personal care segment and over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals for its non-prescription drugs.

Personal Care Products

    ; The market for cosmetics and personal care products is mature and sensitive to changes 1.Competitors in the consumer purchasing power Sales revenues are driven by new products and enhancing existing ones. Although profits swings are typical prior new product P & G introduction, the industry is very stable. (L’Oreal) ; Since January 1, 2002, sales were restated to reflect accounting changes. That affected 2J & J profit margins of companies and they were forces to cut down costs cost through Colgate-employee reduction. Also, manufacturing cost depends on prices of raw material and Palmolive chemicals, while packaging depends on prices of petrochemical and paper Revlon

OTC Pharmaceuticals

     Competitors When a product’s patent expires any company could apply to FDA to obtain OTC status for that drug. OTC companies don’t bare the initial R &D cost but have large advertising Pfizer expenditures. Due to the strong market competition, OTC drugs operate on lower profit J & J margins and large sales volumes. Market share, company size, and brand recognition Wyeth determine the success of a company within the OTC market. P & G Colgate Exhibit 2 shows the comparison of Del Lab’s with its major competitors in both the segments. Del Laboratories operates on lower operating margins than its competitors within both of the

    market segments. That could make it hard for the company to offer price discounts. However,

    the cosmetic division of the company is growing faster than its competitors. Its assets

    turnover is inline for the segment. The company capital expenditure for both the segments is

    lower than the industry. The company’s total debt to equity ratio is lower than the average for

    both the industry and the market (DLI: 0.88; Ind: 3.19; Mkt: 1.41).

    Investment Risks

    ; Del Lab’s biggest customers, Wal-Mart and Walgreens accounted for 23% and 11.6% of

    net sales for 2001 respectively. The operating margin for Del Labs are already thin at 4%.

    The company is susceptible to having its margins squeezed further by these large

    discount customers.

    ; Del Lab’s major competitors such as Proctor and Gamble, L’Oreal, Johnson and Johnson;

    which are larger and have a diversified portfolio of products. As shown in

    Exhibit 2 these competitors also have higher operating margins incur more capital

    expenditure. A price war in the industry could hurt Del more than its competitors.

    ; Cosmetics industry is influenced by changes in fashion and trends. The ability of a

    company to stay ahead of these trends and continuously introduce new products is vital

    for success.

     1 S & P 2003 forecasts: 5.5 % increase in Disposable personal income and 3.2 % increase in Consumption Expenditures. 2 The Financial Accounting Standard Board requires company to revise their income statement to reflect the cost of certain trade advertising and consumer promotions

     - 7 -

Report this document

For any questions or suggestions please email
cust-service@docsford.com