the fed anyway and Mr Obama re-elected President of
the United States in 2012
1, the federal reserve launched on September 21, so is a big probability event
The FED is in small probability events or said there should be no release.Then said: "from the point of Mr Bernanke's speech, the launch of the new quantitative easing is conditional, that is only in the U.S. economy weakening trend fully established, a new round of quantitative easing will launch, one of the most important thing is the future of the U.S. unemployment rate data to".From the recent economic situation to see this view it is necessary to make a correction, is I think the FED
policy-setting meeting on September 21, after the third is a big probability event or should launch anyway..
The following analysis the federal reserve chairman Ben bernanke's speech yesterday.
Federal reserve chairman Ben bernanke on Friday in Jackson hole, Wyoming fed the world's central bankers during the annual economic conference speech, said the federal reserve is not now launch new economic stimulus plan.Although the federal reserve chairman Ben bernanke at nearly twice the public speech he gave no specific signal is going to launch a third, but he has a more open attitude to launch a third. Bernanke's remarks:
"Economy since the crisis in the strength of the recovery is still far less than we expected. From the latest national finances comprehensive assessment, and preliminary estimates of the economic growth during the first half of the year, you can see, before the recession is far more serious than we thought, and the recovery is more than we had expected."
"Monetary policy must cope with changes in the economy, particularly the prospects for economic growth and inflation expectations to respond. Like I earlier views, recent data have shown that in the first half of this year's economic growth rate is far lower than expected the federal open market committee, the temporary factors only responsible for part of the
bad performance. As a result, although we still think the modest recovery will continue to continue, but as time goes on, but the commission or cut its efforts in the next few quarters economic growth expectations. As commodity prices and import prices tend to moderate, and long-term stability of inflation expectations, we think the rate of inflation will be held steady in the coming quarters, at less than 2%, even such a level also by most members of the committee as a dual legal tasks in accordance with our standards."
"In addition to perfect our front guidance, the fed has a large number of tools can be used to provide additional monetary stimulus for economic growth. We will be in the interest rate policy meeting in September to continue to consider these options, as well as other related issues, the nature including the development of economic and financial situation. This time the meeting will be extended to two days (September 20 and 21), rather than one day before the session, so that a more comprehensive discussion. The committee will synthesize recent information about the economic outlook continued to make evaluation, and ready to take the commission said the right tools, under the condition of price stability as the prerequisite to achieve more robust economic recovery."
"Our economy is currently suffer from unusually high unemployment, nearly half of the unemployed have been more than six months without
The FED when considering economic growth and inflation are more inclined to promote economic growth.Recent U.S. non-farm far less than expected, and the unemployment rate data from bernanke's speech we also to see his fear of weaker-than-expected economic data "our economy is currently suffer from unusually high unemployment".As result of the fall in commodity prices declining inflation: "we believe that the rate of inflation will be held steady in the next few quarters, is even less than 2%."
Comprehensive analysis of bernanke's speech and U.S. economic situation recently, personally think that the FED launched on September 21, so will be a big probability event.
2, the U.S. economy downturn tests can Obama re-elected President of the United States in 2012
In 2012 the President of the United States will again, austenite can be re-elected?Because now the U.S. economic downturn and falling of austenite ratings, now most of Obama's re-election is more pessimistic.But I think that Obama will win the 2012 election and won a second term!
The economic downturn and austenite falling test of Mr Obama's approval ratings can be re-elected President in 2012.
Obama launched health reforms sparked controversy in the United
States.In 2008 and 2009, the American voters believe Obama's economy has the ability to save the American plummeting, but until now, the United States is still in the economic difficulties, the unemployment rate has been more than 9%, causing a sharp cooling public support for Obama's enthusiasm.Obama launched stimulus plan did not make the American economy recovered quickly took to the road.
Gallup poll agency released 14 poll, Obama's approval rating dropped to 39%, fell below 40% for the first time to new lows.However, congress obtained approval rating is lower.Barack Obama's approval rating reached 69%, at the beginning of the bin laden was once reached 53%.Analysts believe that both parties in congress against each other causing public discontent, lower public opinion support for Obama, pose a negative impact to his re-election prospects.Low approval rating for Obama's reelection is very bad.Data show that since the second world war, before the election poll ratings less than 48% of the 10 incumbent President, not a successful win re-election.On August 23, Gallup, according to a new poll published Obama voters in the President's approval ratings, and four of the republican party two main presidential contenders.
The cause of Mr Obama's approval ratings low mainly include:Of Mr Obama's ability to lead a lack of trust,The Obama administration's rescue and stimulus spending on the difficult enterprise fails to well stimulate
economic growth and job creation,Obama supports controversial greatly, the foundation of the people of weak health care reform bill,The United States are being swallowed up by a vast amount of debt.
To sum up the main reason is that people worry about the present situation of the American economy, the American people of high unemployment, generally unstable worry about the housing market, the current budget deficits.