the fed anyway and Mr Obama re-elected President of
the United States in 2012
1, the federal reserve launched on September 21, so is a big probability event
The FED is in small probability events or said there should be no release.Then said: "from the point of Mr Bernanke's speech, the launch of the new quantitative easing is conditional, that is only in the U.S. economy weakening trend fully established, a new round of quantitative easing will launch, one of the most important thing is the future of the U.S. unemployment rate data to".From the recent economic situation to see this view it is necessary to make a correction, is I think the FED
policy-setting meeting on September 21, after the third is a big probability event or should launch anyway..
The following analysis the federal reserve chairman Ben bernanke's speech yesterday.
Federal reserve chairman Ben bernanke on Friday in Jackson hole, Wyoming fed the world's central bankers during the annual economic conference speech, said the federal reserve is not now launch new economic stimulus plan.Although the federal reserve chairman Ben bernanke at nearly twice the public speech he gave no specific signal is going to launch a third, but he has a more open attitude to launch a third. Bernanke's remarks:
"Economy since the crisis in the strength of the recovery is still far less than we expected. From the latest national finances comprehensive assessment, and preliminary estimates of the economic growth during the first half of the year, you can see, before the recession is far more serious than we thought, and the recovery is more than we had expected."
"Monetary policy must cope with changes in the economy, particularly the prospects for economic growth and inflation expectations to respond. Like I earlier views, recent data have shown that in the first half of this year's economic growth rate is far lower than expected the federal open market committee, the temporary factors only responsible for part of the
bad performance. As a result, although we still think the modest recovery will continue to continue, but as time goes on, but the commission or cut its efforts in the next few quarters economic growth expectations. As commodity prices and import prices tend to moderate, and long-term stability of inflation expectations, we think the rate of inflation will be held steady in the coming quarters, at less than 2%, even such a level also by most members of the committee as a dual legal tasks in accordance with our standards."
"In addition to perfect our front guidance, the fed has a large number of tools can be used to provide additional monetary stimulus for economic growth. We will be in the interest rate policy meeting in September to continue to consider these options, as well as other related issues, the nature including the development of economic and financial situation. This time the meeting will be extended to two days (September 20 and 21), rather than one day before the session, so that a more comprehensive discussion. The committee will synthesize recent information about the economic outlook continued to make evaluation, and ready to take the commission said the right tools, under the condition of price stability as the prerequisite to achieve more robust economic recovery."
"Our economy is currently suffer from unusually high unemployment, nearly half of the unemployed have been more than six months without
The FED when considering economic growth and inflation are more inclined to promote economic growth.Recent U.S. non-farm far less than expected, and the unemployment rate data from bernanke's speech we also to see his fear of weaker-than-expected economic data "our economy is currently suffer from unusually high unemployment".As result of the fall in commodity prices declining inflation: "we believe that the rate of inflation will be held steady in the next few quarters, is even less than 2%."
Comprehensive analysis of bernanke's speech and U.S. economic situation recently, personally think that the FED launched on September 21, so will be a big probability event.
2, the U.S. economy downturn tests can Obama re-elected President of the United States in 2012
In 2012 the President of the United States will again, austenite can be re-elected?Because now the U.S. economic downturn and falling of austenite ratings, now most of Obama's re-election is more pessimistic.But I think that Obama will win the 2012 election and won a second term!
The economic downturn and austenite falling test of Mr Obama's approval ratings can be re-elected President in 2012.
Obama launched health reforms sparked controversy in the United
States.In 2008 and 2009, the American voters believe Obama's economy has the ability to save the American plummeting, but until now, the United States is still in the economic difficulties, the unemployment rate has been more than 9%, causing a sharp cooling public support for Obama's enthusiasm.Obama launched stimulus plan did not make the American economy recovered quickly took to the road.
Gallup poll agency released 14 poll, Obama's approval rating dropped to 39%, fell below 40% for the first time to new lows.However, congress obtained approval rating is lower.Barack Obama's approval rating reached 69%, at the beginning of the bin laden was once reached 53%.Analysts believe that both parties in congress against each other causing public discontent, lower public opinion support for Obama, pose a negative impact to his re-election prospects.Low approval rating for Obama's reelection is very bad.Data show that since the second world war, before the election poll ratings less than 48% of the 10 incumbent President, not a successful win re-election.On August 23, Gallup, according to a new poll published Obama voters in the President's approval ratings, and four of the republican party two main presidential contenders.
The cause of Mr Obama's approval ratings low mainly include:Of Mr Obama's ability to lead a lack of trust,The Obama administration's rescue and stimulus spending on the difficult enterprise fails to well stimulate
economic growth and job creation,Obama supports controversial greatly, the foundation of the people of weak health care reform bill,The United States are being swallowed up by a vast amount of debt.
To sum up the main reason is that people worry about the present situation of the American economy, the American people of high unemployment, generally unstable worry about the housing market, the current budget deficits.
3, Ronald Reagan and Mr Obama
Two presidents Reagan re-election in the 1980 s, is one of the most popular President of the United States today.In 1980, he became the republican candidate for President, vanquished the democratic President Jimmy Carter, to enter the White House.On June 5, 2004, Reagan died, aged 93, is the oldest President of the United States.In the field of international diplomacy, led the United States won the cold war.Militarily, through grenada war, to re-establish American soldiers lost confidence because of the Vietnam war.Economically, out of the second oil crisis of the economic stagnation.In science and technology, the establishment of a new frontier.
Came to power in 1981 at the start of the Reagan is "economic recovery plan" is put forward, including four platforms: tax cuts, spending cuts, revoked or relax the relevant laws regulations of government management enterprise, control the money supply.The implication of the basic economic philosophy is to reduce government control over economic and intervention.He revolutionized the American post-war pursuing a policy of economic policy, broke the story of the Keynesian, committed to loosen and remove the government regulation, thus free competition to create a good environment for the enterprise.Although he is not proficient in economics, but his approach, known as "Reagan economics".So, as the right of the U.S. President Ronald Reagan in the
1980 s, the ruling right ideas of free competition to win the global mainstream discourse.Reagan and thatcher right concept in 1989 through the form of the Washington consensus, Washington consensus, basically represent the core of the new liberalism.
In spite of the newly appointed President of the United States, Obama for Reagan dismissive, but two years later, Mr Obama's problems increasingly feel he is more like Ronald Reagan took office at the beginning of the economic decline, "problems.Late in 2010, Obama during the holiday season finished biography of Ronald Reagan. "the role of a lifetime to."Obama said, "I find it is worth noting that the Reagan didn't invent the political formula, it stated his point of view, and in the later still so popular for a long time."
To found after comparing the two presidents, both the similarities in: they are full of charm of politicians, distinguished speaker;When two people in office are all faced with the plight of the domestic economy, have put forward the slogan of change;Two people are fully calls in the election of the power of oratory.In 1981, Reagan took over the United States also shrouded in the shadow of the cold war, the Vietnam war.At that time, the American economy serious stagflation, high unemployment.Barack Obama today, in the face of the United States, also massive economic recession, high unemployment, etc.Like Reagan, Obama's failure in the first term mid-term elections.Reagan's trademark
smile is a comprehensive relaxation of big smile, which is similar with Obama popular trademark smile.In the 2008 general election, Mr Obama's aides in the face of challenge, and President Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter competition when facing similar challenges.Reagan to prove his authority and the public's faith in him.Ronald Reagan in the annual meeting of the televised debate with carter to consolidate his support base, barack Obama is handling of the financial crisis in a more robust way than Mr McCain also proved.
When Obama's second state of the union speech, Reagan's example and policy has been embodied in them.In his speech he proposed a freeze on discretionary spending and the federal government employee wages, to promote a simpler tax code and cut billions of dollars in defense budget, at the same time, he also called for a bipartisan effort to reform the social security system.The above every piece of advice is by the third year term, in the period of high unemployment failed President proposed in the midterm elections.Reagan state of the union speech in 1983, said over the next two years, the two parties parties and various political powers of the government in the future for a long time, and the two parties Shared responsibility.Obama the executives often invited to the White House, visit the American chamber of commerce, comment in the Reagan administration's former White House chief of staff, Ken Duberstein concerned Reagan processing after the experience of a
serious economic problem, Obama signed a $858 billion tax cut.
4, in 2012 Mr Obama will be re-elected President of the United States Of America in the late 1970 s, as today's America, on the one hand, in a panic, "Japan's first" on the one hand, and struggling with the Soviet union launched the cold war, the United States "decline" wave after wave strikes, the American economy is trapped by "stagflation", high