Mr Bernanke's lies and Obama over
Today is March 1 of the day, with a view of the post as the new opening
for a month.
Now also can often see in many media discussion about whether the FED the FED to launch a third, and there were many large institutions (including international investment big line) is the FED will launch a third sometime in the future, I have to admit: the world say only in a few people or group hands forever.In my mind in the first half of last year before the end of the FED's QE2 didn't have a lot of the media in talking about the FED will soon to launch a third in 2011, however, it's time for the quarter of 2012 in the end, we haven't seen the shadow of the third. Early in July last year post "bernanke's testimony, third, and the price of crude oil 20110715, I have made clear that America will not launch a third, and points out that" historically, the job market recovery after the economic crisis, the United States generally slower than the growth of GDP and other economic data, during the Reagan administration in the 80 s when the us economy to recover from the crisis is that obvious features ".While the fed anyway and Obama re-elected President of the United States in 2012, 20110827, my views have changed, but after September the fed's operation twist, I always insist that we will not be able to see the fed's third again.
As early as around mid - 2011 the bernanke big talking about the FED will keep the ultra-low interest rates close to zero until the end of 2014.Mr Bernanke's acting is really good, Mr Bernanke didn't go as an actor is such a great loss!Because it seems to me that he had been talking about
a beautiful lie, I judge: in 2013, the fed will start raising interest rates, rather than keep the ultra-low interest rates close to zero by the end of 2014.
As early as the third quarter of last year I clear judgment: by 2012, the U.S. economy will usher in a bright spring, the U.S. economy in 2012 will be a strong recovery, last November, said in the blog "when many people are obsessed with GDP growth of false prosperity, China's economy in the winter quietly come, when the world say the United States to a double-dip recession, the U.S. economy in 2012 ushered in the bright spring"!With the strong recovery of the U.S. economy, and driven by oil inflation remained high, in 2013, the federal reserve to start raising interest rates will be very big probability event!
Facts speak louder than words, let's look at the following set of data and charts, let data tell us the real American economic status and the trend of the next few years.
1, 10, has just released a few minutes ago the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week, the United States is 351000. In the week ended February 25, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the 351000 people in the United States, after the market consensus forecast that number is 355000,
A week before the number is 351000 people, is revised to 353000 people. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week and the four-week average trend as follows:
2 January non-farm employment growth in 243000, the United States, 8.3%, the unemployment rate hit a three year low, the consumer confidence index also return to historic highs.
Below is since 1980 the U.S. unemployment rate and the consumer confidence index trend:
3, the United States in the fourth quarter of 2011 GDP growth of 3.0% higher than expected.
The following figure shows GDP growth has been restored to the level of 2006 years ago before the financial crisis:
4, the United States, Chicago PMI index 64 more than expected in February.
The following figure shows the PMI index has been restored to the level of 2006 years ago before the financial crisis and slightly increase:
5, U.S. housing starts in January 699000, higher than expected 675000. Us house prices have now dropped to 2002 levels, chart clearly tells us: the U.S. real estate prices rose, while no obvious but the U.S. real estate market has been in recovery, begin from 2012, if you want to invest in real estate, I can tell you, you go to invest in U.S. real estate and hold a few years will be a one-way ticket, at the same time also remember must be far away from the real estate bubble in China!
6, Chicago PMI VS benchmark federal funds rate
The chart told you Mr Bernanke must be in panic, because the good U.S. economy doesn't support him, especially the Chicago PMI index of better than expected.Below is the history of the Chicago PMI compared with the benchmark federal funds rate.
7, the unemployment rate could fall to about 7% this year, 7% is really serious?See below the U.S. unemployment rate long-term trend chart and you will understand whether very serious: in the 1990 s, the U.S. economy era of Clinton's golden decade America's unemployment rate averaged 5% - 6%.
Finally released just take a look at the unemployment rate in the European Union, contrast, America's unemployment rate is really nothing.
European statistics (Eurostat) released on March 1, the euro zone's 10.7% unemployment rate in January at the highest since the euro was born in 1999 in records, had expected 10.4%, the unemployment rate rose to 10.4% from 10.6% after adjustment in December.
The eu's 10.1% unemployment rate in January, the unemployment rate of 10% in December.
The highest unemployment rate the top three countries are Spanish (23.3%), Greece (19.9%, data) in November 2011, Ireland and Portugal (14.8%).
The top three of the lowest unemployment rate respectively (4%), Austria, the Netherlands (5%) andLuxembourg (5.1%).
And then back to me in the fed anyway and Obama re-elected President of the United States in 2012, 20110827, "said a paragraph as a conclusion:" such as Mr Song economic figures such as "it looks like the huge fiscal deficits will lead to the collapse of the American economy and the dollar. But I think that, as former us vice President dick cheney has said:" Ronald Reagan has been proved that the deficit is not a problem. Now the U.S. economy and the dollar is not the traditional economics