The oil market fluctuations will have more investors to
A fund manager, said in the next 12 months to 24 months before balance market, investors should expect oil market next year and energy-related shares will be more volatility.
"We expect that as the market process of rebalancing away, the market will continue to be volatile," blackrock's $1.8 billion in London, is responsible for the global energy fund director Alastair Bishop said in a telephone interview.The price of crude oil is unsustainable, and the price is too low, and cannot promote investment in the industry.
In view of the organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) at the meeting on December 4, reiterated to defend its market share, and in fact gave up the yield limit, crude oil prices fall to 11-year lows.Bishop said, though the world's largest asset manager blackrock correctly predicted the price of crude oil will be u-shaped recovery, rather than a v-shaped recovery, but the recovery process is longer than expected.
"We didn't expect that OPEC will increase so much production this year," said the Bishop."In Iraq, in particular, has not expected Iraq has the ability to break through the bottleneck, which can improve production as it is now successfully."
Iraq's oil production in June to 4.4 million barrels per day, hit a record high, currently on 4.3 million barrels a day.Crude oil output soared 40% since June 2014, when the islamic militants began to gradually occupy territory in Iraq.
Bishop saidIranLikely to return to the market next year, is another cause of market volatility.Is expected in the first quarter of 2016 lift sanctions against Iran's nuclear programme, will increase additional production to have excess supply market.
Slump in the price of crude oil has force oil companies to postpone or cancel the high cost of investment projects, layoffs, sell assets, sometimes even is considered must not touch the dividend cuts to save cash.Energy consultancy Rystad Energy table, said spending has fallen by $250 billion this year, next year is likely to cut $70 billion in further.
The MSCI world, including 107 energy companiesThe energy industryIndex since the start of the year, has lost more than a quarter of its market value.The MSCI world index has fallen 4.3% in the same period.
"Macroeconomic fluctuations will be converted into stock market," said the Bishop."With investors, we will need to prepare for a while under constant volatility."
Although most big oil companies have promised despite the decline in stock price, but will do our utmost to maintain the dividend, butItalyEni SpA cut its dividend this year.
"The stock market shows clearly that the dividend is risky, and that is why companies like BP and shell of the dividend rate is so high," said the Bishop.
Bishop is expected next year there will be more consolidation in the sector.During the "expected after the downward cycle, there will be more mergers and acquisitions," he said.