U.S. stocks dollar is neck and neck to oil recovery or fraud

By Sally Porter,2015-11-18 05:04
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U.S. stocks dollar is neck and neck to oil recovery or fraud

    U.S. stocks dollar is neck and neck to oil recovery or


    On Tuesday (December 15th)The federal reserveThe resolution, the day before the market is generally believed that although the federal reserve will beIncreases in interest rates, but this is going to be a dove raising interest rates, the fedyellenLikely that further raise interest rates to remain cautious, and patience which makes the market risk preference mood better, and the stock marketThe dollarQi qi to rise.On the other hand, crude oil prices continue to rally on Tuesday, but the rebound from Monday clearly slowing, short-covering andThe United StatesCrude oil exports could release message to support oil prices, but the API oil inventoriesdataAnd dampen the market again think oil prices could recover the confidence of investors, under the circumstances of supply exceeds demand, oil recovery but also is a scam.

    Specific markets, the dollar index climbed to above the 98 mark for the volatility, U.S. stocks and oil prices rebounded to boost risk appetite, good core CPI will support us;On the 4th of the euro against the dollar fell to a low, risk preference, warm, investors buy stocks and the dollar, the euro as a funding currency by selling;Gold prices steadied, basic market waiting for the fed's interest rate decision;Oil prices rose for the second day, short covering and U.S. crude oil export bans lifted a boost, but API inventories data in the oil prices rebound limited space.

    The dollar index climbed to above the 98 mark for the volatility, U.S. stocks and oil prices rebounded to boost risk appetite, good core CPI will support us.The focus of the market at present is that the fed will be held on Wednesday night's interest rate decision.

    On the eve of the fed's resolution, widely expected the federal reserve this week will be implemented to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, but the fed has hinted that intends to raise interest rates gradually, this position is considered by many to be relatively mild, the positive U.S. stocks.In addition, after a sharp fall in a row, short-covering crude oil prices rebounded, further support the market risk preference.

    The stock market rebounded good appetite for risk.Robert W.B aird strategist said, "the stock market volatility is expected to be bigger, there may be a so-called Christmas roseThe market.As Christmas approaches, investor panic boom-bust, andtaxAbout selling to reduce, seasonal power on the horizon, rally will appear at the end of the year."

    When it comes to U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, FBN Securities chief market strategist at Jeremy Klein said, "I think many people now hope to take positions before the fed's decision. Crude oilfuturesPrices rebounded and early CPI report also gave us stocks.Oil prices may have bottomed out in 2015."

    Investors increasingly later this week by the federal reserve's interest rate information.In the past week, interest rate hike in oil prices and the prospect under the joint action of the junk bond market under pressure, because of the difference between the yields significantly expand, some well-known fund redemption was

    forced to stop.This pressure has brings to the global stock market volatility.In view of this, if there is any unexpected results fed meeting, the dollar may be vulnerable to shocks.

    The dollar index shows an hour

    Nomura analyst Yujiro Goto said, "considering the concern, there is the federal reserve to choose moderate risk of interest rate hike path, so as to cut rate hike expectations for the future. So far, the fed is expected to raise interest rates at least four times next year, any cut expectations will make the dollar under pressure."

    Tokyo IG Securities market strategist at Junichi Ishikawa said. "over $warehouse settle faster than expected on the market. If the fed rate hike cycle footsteps slowly, make the market relieved and covering U.S. debt, the dollar could face further pressure."

    HSBC Hong Kong economists Wang Ran, said this week, the federal reserve is expected to release partial dovish signals, the stronger dollar power is not big, on the same dayThe yuanSituation will be more stable.In addition, the market has been fully predicted the fed raising interest rates, to support the dollar less strong fundamentals, about a strong dollar cycle peaked.

    The rail in the U.S. economic data show approval, support the fed to raise interest rates on Wednesday.The attention of U.S. inflation data, core inflation, though in line with expectations, but its good performance, the beauty that constitute a support.The United States, according to the specific data core CPI monthly rate of 0.2% in November, expected 0.2%, before the value is 0.2%;Before

    value at an annual rate of 2%, 2%, 2%;November CPI monthly rate of 0.0% in the United States, 0.0%, 0.2% before;Value before I at an annual rate of 0.5%, 0.4%, 0.2%.

    In November for inflation data, analysis, the potential inflationary pressures, the core CPI data recorded also increase, reflecting the rental cost, air fares and the steady growth of consumer spending on new cars and health care;Despite the weak current U.S. gasoline prices pose some downside risks to the overall inflation, but the rise in core inflation offset the effect of gasoline prices on inflation.

    In addition, other data showed that the New York fed's manufacturing index - December 4.59, expected - 7, before the value is 10.74.In December, according to the analysis of the index recorded negative again, and has set up a negative interval for five consecutive months, showed that American manufacturing is still the weak global demand and a stronger dollar, but not to raise interest rates expected impact.

    The NAHB housing market index in December 61, 63 expected, before

    62.Although its not as good as expected, according to the analysis of the data, but in more than 50 indicate that most of the builders of U.S. single-family homes market more optimistic;The data has been better since 2014 years, this shows that the housing market as an important part of the U.S. economy has begun to accelerate the prosperity, will contribute to job growth and wage increase.

    On the 4th of the euro against the dollar fell to a low, risk preference, warm, investors buy stocks and the dollar, the euro as a funding currency was selling.Before the fed's decision, currency and bond markets are very cautious about trading, market volatility.

    Earlier, the euro wasThe European central bank (ECB)Policy was less than expected, risk aversion carry deleveraging.But under the background of the risk of emotional recovery, the euro on Tuesday withdrew after some gains.

    European stocks rebounded strongly, making the market funds into the stock market, the euro sell-off.European stocks for energy stocks follow the oil price is strong, and inThe European UnionCommission and for ChinaRussiaAfter action of imported steel, steel producer stocks rose.

    The euro against the dollar figure shows an hour

    CMC Markets analyst Jasper Lawler said. "since Monday, short-term reversed course, oil prices continued on Tuesday, this relieves the pressure of the stock market. On Wednesday, the fed's monetary policy decisions, market have big risk, increase the prospect of growing unease."

    On the dayThe euro zoneGood performance is good, the economic data shows that the euro zone's recovery.Specific data showed that the euro zone in December ZEW economic sentiment index of 33.9, before the value of 28.3.

    In addition,GermanyDecember ZEW economic status index is 55.0, and four months, expectations of 54.2, before the value is 54.4;December German ZEW economic sentiment index, which is expected to 16.1 15, before the value of 10.4.

    European center for economic research ZEW pointed out that the refugees pose challenges to German society,Emerging marketsEconomic growth is slowing a certain pressure to export.Next year the German economy growth is strong, can with the confidence of the challenge.

    Gold prices steadied, basic market waiting for the fed's interest rate decision.Gold prices steadied after day fell 1% on Tuesday, two days of the federal reserve meeting begin, the market is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly ten years.

    The spotGold fell 0.1%, to $1061.25 an ounce.Silver rose 0.5%, to $13.77, after losing streak 6, 2009 to its lowest level in August.

    The federal open market committee (FOMC) is expected to end its policy meeting on Wednesday announced that raising interest rates, but the fed has

    indicated, after raising interest rates for the first time, increase the pace will be gradual.Analysts said gold prices after the fed announced increases in interest rates will rise, the focus of the market has been from raising interest rates for the first time time to the pace of tightening policy in the future.

    Some market watchers think the price of gold has been largely reflects the outlook of the federal reserve may raise interest rates.According to the CME Group of CME Group, "the fed observation Tool" FedWatch Tool, according to traders now expects the possibility that the fed to raise interest rates as high as 83%.

    The dollar index from lows reached earlier in the six weeks, due to data showed core inflation pressure rise in November.Global equity markets, from years of low oil prices on the rebound.

    Spot gold figure shows an hour

    U.S. Bank Wealth management senior investment strategist at Rob Haworth said, "the market for the fed's policy statement, as well as the language of the statement, the market has been completely absorbed all of the published data. The real problem is that the data for the first time after the rate hike policy path mean?" founder Julian Phillips said. "in such a market environment, at least in terms of the recent, the gold market looks more like a casino."

    Credit suisse,Group said in a research report, "we believe that the fed will be challenged, continue to have been included in the rate of the futures market prices to raised benchmark interest rates."

    Oil prices rose for the second day, short covering and U.S. crude oil export bans lifted a boost, but API inventories data in the oil prices rebound limited space.Oil prices rose for the second day on Tuesday, short covering technical support to curb the slide for 11 years, low oil prices and U.S. crude oil export ban ban also boosted the oil, however, the API of crude oil inventory data recorded again soar, traders and analysts said the oversupplied market fundamentals remain weak.

    Brent crude oil futures closed up more than 1%, while U.S. crude oil futures rose almost 3%.Brent crude oil futures closed up $0.53, $38.45 a barrel, high of $39.41 a day.U.S. crude oil futures closed up $1.04, $37.35 a barrel, hit $34.53 on Monday, was the lowest since the during the financial crisis hit $32.40.

    U.S. crude oil export ban will boost U.S. crude oil.According to both parties in congress assistant officials, as a part of a wide range of spending and tax legislation content, congress is likely to cancel has existed for 40 years of oil export ban.

    Some analysts said the days of rising oil prices or 40 years after crude oil exports from the United States will remove the ban is expected to boost.Despite earlier White House and Democrats generally oppose, but is expected to both parties in congress is likely to lift the ban concessions;House democratic leader steny hoyer says, the house will consider may last until Friday or Saturday extended short-term spending bill, and one of the only remain to be solved is the crude oil export bans.

    U.S. crude oil prices hours figure shows

    Short-covering continue to boost oil prices higher.Caprock Risk Management analyst Chris Jarvis said. "all eyes are on 11-year lows, but I think, in the oil prices

    hitting a time those people have initiation" buy ", if oil prices do not make any rebound, all the way down, and fell below that level, will let me feel surprise."

    Price Futures Group, a senior market analyst Phil Flynn said, "crude oil prices rebound is a record of hedge funds short-covering function, this is because the market expected U.S. crude oil supply should decline again. Short hedge funds are beginning to realize the crude oil market, the market transaction has now become very crowded, so they're profit."

    BRG Brokerage of the crude oil traders Jeffrey Grossman said. "investors buy on dips and is expected to last week fell below $40, brent crude will rebound to that level."

    API oil inventories increased limit oil prices.American petroleum institute (API) said on Tuesday that the us crude oil inventories last week, due to refinery output to rise, and gasoline inventories, distillate inventories.

    The week published API, as of December 11, 2.3 million barrels of crude oil inventories in the United States, to 490 million barrels, survey of analysts expect to reduce 1.4 million barrels of oil.Cushing 874000 barrels of crude oil inventories.In addition, the United States department of energy's energy information administration (EIA) inventory report will be released on Wednesday.

    A stronger dollar limit oil prices.Market expectations the fed will be announced on Wednesday to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years, which boost the dollar.Analysts believe that the fed's interest rate decision will dominate the oil market on Wednesday, expect the fed will raise interest rates tomorrow.

    Prospects for oil in foshan, moody's, a rating agency will brent crude price forecasts for next year from $53 to $43, because of excess supply.Sundance grams, the bank said oil prices could hit $25, after the production pushed prices rebound.

    Chief market analyst at AvaTrade Naeem Aslam said, "U.S. crude oil price has been close to the bottom, but has not yet bottomed out at present. If crude oil storage space runs out, you will have to use more floating storage platform to adapt to this kind of situation, then crude oil prices could fall to below $20 a barrel.

    Energy consultancy Energy Aspects of analysts believe that because the current Opec crude oil production cuts the possibility is very small, is expected to decline in non-opec countries supply 2016 is probably the only support to boost oil prices.Non-opec countries currently supply of crude oil fell 400000 barrels a day, in addition, the shale oil production is estimated to be 2016 years ago two quarters of decline in at least 500000 barrels a day, at the same timeBrazil, the Caspian sea and other places of production is also likely to face down.

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