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To raise interest rates after the dollar temporarily adjust inventory down to oil long climb

By Wesley Lane,2015-11-06 05:52
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To raise interest rates after the dollar temporarily adjust inventory down to oil long climb

    To raise interest rates after the dollar temporarily

    adjust inventory down to oil long climb

    On Tuesday (December 22) as the Christmas holiday is coming, investors away from the city, watching, adjust the position.In the last weekThe federal reserveRaising interest rates, the market is still on after large holdingsThe dollarLong position adjustment, and markets that the fed next yearIncreases in interest ratesSpeed slower than previously expected, so the dollar continues to fall in Tuesday's trading.The price of crude oil, vacation makes the market to ease the imbalance between supply and demand concerns, coupled with API released late in New York crude oil inventoriesdataDown, which makesThe United StatesOut of 11 years after the continuous drop in oil prices low, eventually closed up slightly.

    Specific markets, the dollar index dropped down to 98 mark, mainly because of the market that the fed to raise interest rates next year frequency and amplitude may be less than the fed had expected, investors adjusted positions;The euroHigh against the dollar rebounded climbed 4, mainly because ofThe European central bank (ECB)Asset purchases during the Christmas holidays pause, think that the European central bank and the market short-term will not further easing;Gold prices rose for the two soft in the future, traders adjust positions before Christmas;Oil from the 11-year lows, supported by API crude oil inventories fell, but the outlook remains gloomy.

    The dollar index dropped down to 98 mark, mainly because of the market that the fed to raise interest rates next year frequency and amplitude may be not as good as the fed had expected, investors rebalancing.In addition, after the federal reserve to raise interest rates last week decision-making, market of profit-taking after long dollar positions, the decline in the dollar.Mixed economic data released on the day in the United States, the impact on the market is limited.

    The Pacific Ocean investment management co., PIMCO is pointed out that the fed will be before the end of 2017 will remain very loose policy, the FOMC increases in 2016 and 2017 May be less than 4 times, raising interest rates does not mean that U.S. economic expansion end, investors may need to reevaluate the FOMC rate expectations of the path.

    The U.S. economic data overall performance were mixed, with the American in the third quarter GDP, the attention of the final value and Richmond fed manufacturing index are good, but existing home sales was significantly less than expected, another FHFA index performance in line with expectations.The whole mixed data exacerbated the fluctuations in the dollar, but did not pose much impact to the dollar trend.

    The United States, according to the specific data in real GDP in the third quarter quarter final value 2.0%, 1.9%, initial value 2.1%;The United States in the third quarter GDP deflator final value 1.3%, 1.3%, 1.3% initial value.Critics said the United States in the third quarter GDP final value better than expected, showed quite healthy economic growth in the third quarter, mainly because of 3% strong

    consumer demand growth, and business spending increases offset the excess inventory pressure;Although American companies are trying to cut inventories, but high inventory will be a liability in the fourth quarter is expected to economic growth.

    The dollar index shows an hour

    The December Richmond fed manufacturing index 6, expected - 1, before the value.December analysts say that although the Richmond fed manufacturing index significantly better than expected, but from a macro perspective, the U.S. manufacturing sector outlook remains bleak, announced last week the United States on November industrial output fell 0.6%, refresh the biggest monthly decline since March 2012, November ISM manufacturing PMI also recorded a contraction.

    Performance was less than expected, according to data from the annual total sales of previously owned homes in November 4.76 million, the biggest monthly decline since July of 2010, to the lowest levels since the nineteen months recently, expected 5.34 million, value before 5.32 million.On November U.S. existing home sales total annualised rate of 10.5%, is expected to 0.4%, the former value to 4.1%.

    Analysis pointed out that the United States on November existing-home sales growth fall to the lowest level in 19 months, the main reason is that housing prices rising far faster than residents' wage growth, and inventory tightened;On the other hand, the real estate industry needs to adapt to the new federal regulations about end housing sales, to some extent this inhibition potential buyers to buy houses.

    Another in line with expectations of the United States, according to the United States in October FHFA index rate of 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.8% before.

    On the 4th of the euro against the dollar rebounded climbed high, mainly because of the European central bank asset purchases in suspended during the Christmas holidays, and think that the European central bank's short-term market

    will not further easing.In addition, the market forSpainPolitical concerns prompted some safe-haven buying of financing currency to buy back.

    Overall size is 1.5 trillion euro, European central bank bond buying program will be suspended until January 4, which makes investors lost a large support, while at the end of the market liquidity dried up, and Spanish elections did not produce independent to form a political party, have led to price fluctuations.

    As the market into the Christmas holidays, the European central bank's purchases have been reduced.On Monday, according to data from the bank bought 11.18 billion euros of public assets last week, two weeks before the 13.6 billion and 16.46 billion euros respectively.Although the purchase action had slowed during the summer vacation, but this Christmas is the first time since march to start the program completely ceased.

    Political unrest or in 2016The euro zoneThe nascent economic recovery pose a risk.Spain will be in the political turmoil in recent weeks.The country's prime minister Rajoy (Mariano Rajoy?) belongs to the centre-right people's party (PP) failed to obtain an absolute majority in the election, but the left party is unlikely to raise enough seats to form a coalition government.The election results will herald a for a few weeks to form the government of tough negotiations.

    The euro against the dollar figure shows an hour

    Also believe that the European central bank's short-term market further expand the scale of loose, it also support the euro.Since early this month after the resolution of the European central bank easing measures less than market expectations, the European central bank officials have stressed that the easing in the euro area don't have too much expectation.Now the euro zone's economic recovery is good.

    The European central bank management committee Knot public comments on the same day is pointed out that the market of the European central bank's

    monetary policy not to have too high expectations.The QE dimension of the Knot, according to the European central bank (ECB) in large, time balance sheet expansion is relatively long.

    Released on the same dayGermanyGood economic data also support the euro.Specific data show, Germany December Gfk consumer confidence index is 9.4, expected 9.2, the value of 9.3.German consumer research firm GfK pointed out, the data suggest that Europe's biggest economy, Germany in 2016, consumption growth is expected to remain strong.German consumer confidence clearly didn't affected by the refugee crisis and terrorism threats.

    Another German data also showed that the German import price index rate - 0.2% in November, expected to 0.2%, before the value - 0.3%;At an annual rate of 3.5%, expected - 3.5%, the first value to 4.1%.

    Gold prices rose for the two soft in the future, traders adjust positions before Christmas.Gold rallied Tuesday the two soft in the future, not the weak dollar and boost oil prices rebound, as traders adjust positions at the end of the year, before the Christmas holiday trading was thin obviously.Gold prices since announced last week the federal reserve to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade after the hit in early 2010 to lows have risen by 2.5%.

    The spotGold fell 0.5%, to $1072.20 an ounce.Silver fell 0.1%, to $14.26 an ounce.

    U.S. stocksRising and the dollar fell as traders to the fed to raise interest rates after the long dollar bet in profits, and the United States on November existing-home sales plummeted.The world's largest Gold exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust with his Gold late last week, support Gold prices, but recover losses this week suggesting that investors remain cautious.

    Saxo Bank (Christian blaabjerg) in the report pointed out that "before last week, the federal reserve to raise interest rates, hedge funds held a record of short positions, have been reduced in recent days. Next year, the market may have some downside risks, as investors have not focused on the possibility of interest rates likely to remain stable."

    Analyst at abn amro Georgette Boele thinks, nearly two days of gold from the lows of nearly 3% last week, mainly because at the end of the year will be to a tighter liquidity in the market, investors are starting to close the bearish gold trading this year, maybe gold price in the capital is not fell to shorting investor's goal, so they intend to enter the market again next year;In addition to the recent economic data weighed on the dollar, also to a certain extent for gold.

    Spot gold figure shows an hour

    Consultancy, Insignia, chief market analyst at Consultant Chintan Karnani said, "traders now have to think about a problem is, now the fed raising interest rates has been temporarily no related news, then the end will be what kind of new factors will be instructed on the future of the gold market."

    Chief market strategist at CMC Markets Colin Cieszynski said, "on the whole, with the coming of the holiday shopping season, gold prices are bottoming out. Now just gold prices hit the ceiling price range, while the rise in stock market brought a certain safe haven demand."

    Analysts said that for the price of gold to the next few days time is crucial.Recently the price of gold rose, but the rally has been by a variety of adverse effect brought by the wind, such as the fed has announced last week raised its benchmark interest rate, it has been nearly 10 years since the bank to raise interest rates for the first time, and the fed to raise interest rates is the main reason why the prompted investors to sell gold.

    ETF Securities Securities analyst Martin Arnold in the report pointed out that the spot price is range fluctuations, under the support of a weaker dollar;Looking forward to next year, prices could face downside risk, as investors think the fed raising interest rates exist uncertainty.

    Physical gold, according to a Reuters quoted gold trade institutions, according to data from theIndiaIn 2015, more than 1000 tons of gold demand, is expected to 2016 gold demand won't have too big discrepancy on the previous year.Hope that India could cut gold import tariffs to 2%.

    Oil from the 11-year lows, supported by API crude oil inventories fell, but the outlook remains gloomy.U.S. crude oil rose, while brent crude fell.The dish in short of crude oil rose above brent, closed at $36.14 a barrel, up $0.33, or 0.92%.Brent crude oilfuturesTouch the 11-year lows on Tuesday, in anticipation of oversupply

    situation will continue until 2016 and refined oil falling profits, inhibit the performance of the oil.

    American petroleum institute (API) said on Tuesday, the latest week 3.6 million barrels of crude oil inventories in the United States, to 486.7 million barrels, survey of analysts expect an increase of 1.1 million barrels.Cushing 1.5 million barrels of crude oil inventories.U.S. crude oil prices soared after data.

    Next year, global oil supplies will remain higher than demand concerns limit the rise in oil prices.Warm weather further add to the gloom, at the beginning of winter in the northern hemisphere temperatures unusually warm, weakened demand for heating oil.

    In addition, the shale oil production decline rate is lower than expected in the United States, OPEC members did not yield, and constraint itselfIranWill re-enter the market situation, the supply of crude oil is expected to investor concerns about excess supply of crude oil will make any movements of oil prices rebound may have are limited.

    Mobius Risk Group vice President John Saucer said, "traders in the traditional low liquidity of Christmas and New Year's day before close positions, they to cover short positions, to support the U.S. crude oil prices. In before the start of a New Year, this is the reasonable defensive approach."

    U.S. crude oil prices hours figure shows

    Kronenberg Capital Advisors, a partner, Matthew Perry said "the United States export ban cancelled, we can see the difference between the two disappeared, the situation is expected to continue, because the global demand for crude oil becomes higher, we expect the price difference of the two will stay in a small range, sometimes U.S. crude oil prices are higher than brent."

    Although price is temporarily slow decline, but the excess supply concerns is expected to continue to depress prices over the next few months;Oil database show

    last weekend,Saudi ArabiaOctober exports nearly 7.4 million barrels a day of crude oil, a 3.6% increase in September, up 6.8% compared with the same period last year.In addition, the United States last week to lift the crude oil export bans or compete from Saudi Arabia and the United States soon, this will trigger a new round of crude excess fuel concerns.

    Price Futures Group in Chicago, a senior market analyst Phil Flynn said, "the U.S. decision to lift its ban on crude oil exports is one of the reasons why push U.S. crude oil Futures prices rose, another reason is that investors are driven by the end of the year before coming to do more than brent crude oil/short unwind the spread of U.S. crude oil contract, in addition, he also pointed out that brent north sea crude oil output rose."

    Phil Flynn also pointed out that "in the long run, basically U.S. crude will reaffirm his claim, the reason is that America has already cancelled crude oil export ban. In the short term, the price of crude oil is likely to be more to do with the direction of the north sea production small growth, at the same time also will be slightly increased U.S. demand."

    MO Capital Markets, an analyst at Phillip Jungwirth wrote in a research note, "we expect that the global oil market supply is higher than that of the demand of nearly 1 million barrels a day. If you want to the global oil market equilibrium condition, the excess supply will need to eliminate this phenomenon. The only reliable mechanism and want to do this is the price of crude oil."

    Refineries in China, on the other hand, has always been one of the main driving force behind the global oil demand, 2015 years the demand for crude reached more than 1.8 million barrels a day, it can be from China to other Asian countries reflected in the growth of the distillate products exports.According to China's general administration of customs, according to data released in November, China's net exports distillate is 540000 barrels a day, with about 93000 barrels a day is a fuel oil, this is the third time since records began China export fuel oil.

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