The federal reserve to raise interest rates on the stock market long-term bearish But the United States will not
immediately fall sharply
Opened the historical trend to see,Increases in interest ratesCycle start early, tend to push the stock market decline, good short stocks.However, on Tuesday (December 15), in the forecastThe federal reserveOn the eve of the start raising interest rates, stock market rose sharply, it's nine years first.
Analysts believe that under the current conditions, the federal reserve to raise interest rates are not necessarily bad, at least not the first negative.
Strategist at ubs, a Swiss bank stocks and derivatives Julian Emanuel said: "the federal reserve to raise interest rates for the first time the signal is clear, therefore the bull market to a close. But the end really come took an average of 2 years time, we fully believe that stock index will also be new high over the next six months."
Emanuel back the cycle of raising interest rates since the 1970 s, not only the 1994 cycle market into a bear market.
Some strategists expect the fed odds expected to raise interest rates, the market will rally in the New Year.Markets expect the fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.
Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald said: "technically, we feel that the stock market usually we give a positive response in oversold in the strength of the year."
Institutions Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut said on Tuesday, the stock market has been oversold.Saut the bottom of the successful prediction of the stock market in August.
Emanuel said: "we think the market will be a long time consolidation. The fed is about to release the signal will be tomorrow with raw positive resonance in the market."
He said: "the fed's message would be" the economy is no problem, but still not enough to make us hike rates ", the wording of the we think they will be very cautious."
However, the market for the economydataWeakness is still weak or focus more on, manufacturing, and retail sales also not as good as expected.Economic growth is slow, in the fourth quarter economic operation also have no how much faster than predicted 2%.
Earnings forecasts also no window, and the actual growth or decline since 2009, the longest period.According to Thomson Reuters data, in the third quarterThe s&p 500Fourth quarter profit fell 0.7%, is expected to decline 0.3%.
Strategists believe, therefore, is likely to fall, even if the next year the stock market hit a new high, the bull market may not be as long as the duration of the past.
Wald said: "the rates for the first time usually exacerbate market volatility, cycle of mid to adjustments, but the market peak is not necessary. We agreed that in the first quarter may be weaker. Overall, moderate upward trend in 2016."
Wald back moves to the 50 s, found that after the first market ZouXiong only three times.He said: "the fed raising interest rates tend to be in the stock market up time period, but the situation is different."
Wald said: "this summer, the stock market is broken under four years of rising trend, the general trend has gone bad."
will, capital management, chief investment strategist at Jim Paulsen, said the fed does not usually such a point in economic cycle of raising interest rates, the recovery has been more than six years since the beginning of time.
Market is not the fed's like.Paulson said: "the federal reserve may raise interest rates by a massive credit expansion, this is very terrible. I think after the stock market will experience suffering. No guarantee that the economy will grow rapidly."
If the market rebound at the end of the year, said Emanuel, expand market dominant power will be.He said that he pay close attention to Jan. 4, IMS manufacturing data and December jobs report, believe that these can set the tone for January market.And if the ISM data better, the market will be stronger.The opposite will continue to weaken."Now, the ISM data has been below the 50, bull market in gestures, is seen by some as a warning signal of recession.
Emanuel said: "in the first half of next year, if the data fall in place, we think the market will bottom out in the first half of the year. The s&p 500 index rose 2500 points during the first half of next year."He also expects merger activity will look up,The United StatesEnterprises will be accelerated to reach an agreement before the presidential election.