American interest rates don't have to worry about
One of the world's most important economic decision, the fed decided to raise rates this year, will be answered in the next week. For the emerging markets, represented by China will appear higher capital outflows, is the focus for investors around the world.
"The federal reserve to raise interest rates next week is a big probability event, but don't have to worry about China's capital will be a large number of outflow."And the Chinese peoplebankfinancialYao, director of the institute more than on the "sanya, BBS of finance and economics" make such judgment.
Since the fed's monetary policy meeting in October, year interest rates expected increased significantly.In early December, the fed chairman yellen speaking, said "expect" moment to raise interest rates, because it will prove that the U.S. economic recovery.
But, it seems to yao more than the fed raising interest rates will be very mild and relatively slow.And "China's abundant domestic monetary base, a means of monetary policy is very creative. And the transmission mechanism is smooth."He said.
In addition, he also argues that don't have to worry about the cause of the capital outflow is that long yuan exist such a large surplus, and there is no systemic risk."Afraid of what? Nothing."He said.
Yao more than that, the central proposed reform of supply-side and demand-side moderately expand, it will be very important turning point, it will also be economic transition to create a good environment.
Even if the fed choose years raising interest rates, yao more than don't think the current global liquidity into the winter, is still in the "last autumn," therefore, emerging markets and will be affected by the federal reserve to raise interest rates too much."But the risk is very important, opportunity to reduce the debt, for moreThe macroPrudent policy."He suggested.
Yao more than analysis, the global liquidity have a cycle, the cycle in international currency issuing country balance sheet aggregation convert the SDR to sign, there are about 60 to 70 years.
Since 1900 to 1900, the entire balance sheet, is mainly for international currencies to peak in the balance sheet.So he is expected to around 2017, will be the height of this round of liquidity cycle."This summit will be the European central bank, marked by end of day the central bank and the bank of England to buy debt."His judgment, liquidity after the peak is falling, and down will continue for at least 20 to 30 years.
So it was the last fall of global liquidity, especially for is for emerging markets, will enter the winter long after 2018.
But he also said that due to the internationalisation of the renminbi will make this winter is not so cold."It may be a mild winter.", he said, because China's economy can provide global liquidity, the global economy also needs the yuan liquidity.This liquidity provide can help"One Belt And One Road"And China's capital account.
His judgment in ChinaThe banking sectorAnd finance will provide renminbi loans on
a global scale, so the future for the vast number of developing countries and
emerging market countries, the future will be one more "gold master".