The crisis of the European debt crisis =
Review of the last century since the 1980 s the world economic trend, can be roughly with the "globalization" and "regionalization" two characteristics to generalize.Once upon a time, European integration is "regional integration" and "regional cooperation".
After the second world war, Germany, France, led the Europe not only shows the courage and wisdom in political aspect, has realized the real reconciliation, beyond the past one thousand years of enmity;In terms of economic and monetary cooperation, Europe is also guided by a "great Europe" dream, steady progress, has made a series of tangible achievement, from the earliest of the coal and steel associated to the European Union and the European monetary system, to the single European market and launched a single currency, the European people relying on their own conviction to set up a idealism of the world's benchmark, the European economic integration and the whole process of the birth of the euro has also been writing textbooks, west Africa, Latin America, North America, the gulf, east Asia and other regions according to the model.Not only that, as a unified regional currency of the euro, and the world in mind only qualified to challenge the dollar hegemony of international currency.
However, the outbreak of the Greek crisis, makes the myth of European economic integration is commonly questioned.Europe now facing trouble not only brought europeans puzzled and confused, those who had been model for the rest of Europe also lost the direction.As a result, critics will Europe's debt crisis as a crisis of "regional integration";Similarly, a 2008-2009 subprime mortgage crisis has also been up to the crisis of "economic globalization" the level.
Of all the doubters, most aggressive way, chairman of the us national bureau of economic research Martin?Feldstein.Over the years, he has been trying to from the perspective of mechanism design and conflicts within the euro area to predict the eurozone as a whole will collapse.Its inference logic is: within Europe there are serious "the gap between rich and poor", including members of such as Germany has a huge trade surplus, there are like Spain plagued by high unemployment, a member of the suffering.
In theory, the euro exchange rate should be 16 members of real exchange rate of a compromise, it must comprehensively reflect the competitiveness of all member states, labor productivity, trade surplus condition and other factors.If Spain and Germany are respectively in pesetas and the German mark as currency, then a difference in trade balance will lead to mark appreciation, peseta devaluation, which subsequently adjust the balance of payments.However, due to replace all the members of the currency, the euro, Germany can avoid the situation of their currencies to rise sharply, to continue to expand its exports;Relatively weak
and the currency of the Spanish in the real exchange rate under the condition of strong, had to suffer a bigger trade deficit, lead to more unemployment.In the case of this unfair, Martin?Feldstein is convinced that Greece, Spain, the vulnerable countries will sooner or later initiation "simply walking away from the single currency system".
There is no denying the fact that until today in development of European integration, problems still exist.But with only a local crisis, whether is enough to deny the significance of regional integration and prospects?
First of all, it must be noted that, this is not in European integration road suffered a setback for the first time, also won't be the last time.European integration has over half a century of history, which has stalled in the '60 s, 70 s after the collapse of the bretton woods system of confusion;Both in 1992 as a direct result of the exit from the European monetary integration "crisis" in September so heavy blow, there are a few years ago the eu constitution treaty was negatived by the embarrassment of a referendum in multiple countries.But these are not deterred European countries towards integration direction.So far as to say that every time the outbreak of the crisis, has brought strong suffering consciousness to European countries, inspired united power, European economic integration is in such a self-correcting and sublation of a breakthrough.For example, when the United States declared under the bretton woods system of fixed exchange rate regime demise, the europeans to create "crawling in the hole" of their own joint
float, for subsequent laid a foundation for the birth of the European monetary system and the euro.For example, the eu constitution treaty after the setback, pessimism rage of European integration;But just two years later, Europe is launched the Lisbon treaty, and ultimately approved.
Next, want to see, Greece, Italy and other countries to join the European Union (euro), the fiscal deficit and debt burden has been a prominent problem, unemployment is high, also visible currency depreciation is not a panacea.In fact, the debt crisis, lack of fiscal discipline in all countries and regions are alike.Mexico in the 80 s, for example, a few times in a very serious debt crisis;The north American free trade zone was established in 1992, Mexico significantly lower the frequency of serious debt crisis, even if the debt crisis of 1994, but in the United States for $50 billion to rescue, crisis be resolved soon.As a result, the acknowledged flawed mechanism of regional integration may bring endogenous conflict at the same time, more want to see it for security and in the crisis.
Again, the most essential problem is that the eu debt crisis (euro) members to access standards to relax and for the lax discipline of finance and economics, and this is not a can't repair the hole.
In the end, perhaps in the integration of Europe does have some go so urgently;But for other areas, especially in east Asia, the biggest problem is not in a high level of integration, but is lagging.For example, we can't because of the subprime crisis in the United States criticized the financial liberalization is wrong,
and the liberalization of China's financial sector doesn't need to come to the conclusion.On the contrary, low degree of marketization of China's financial sector, financial repression is serious, vastly restricted the vitality of the private economy.Thus, financial innovation and financial liberalization is not the source of the subprime crisis, absence of regulators is.
In addition to Europe, the most common being mentioned in North America and east Asia regional cooperation mechanism.Compared with the European Union, which is not an order of magnitude.Peter?Regional economic integration robson was divided into a customs union, free trade area, a common market, monetary union and the economic and monetary union five forms (stage).If the euro zone has reached the top of the pyramid - the stage of economic and monetary union, so, still in the north American free trade area between the second and the third phase, as for east Asia, only in the early stages of a free trade area.
At present, has made certain progress in trade cooperation in east Asia, China, Japan and South Korea and the 10 asean countries 3 free trade agreement (FTA) has been started.But overall, substantial progress is not big, the association of south-east Asian nations (asean) only satisfied in the axis of the spokes "system ACTS as the center of the symbolic, the pursuit of lower levels of integration;And east Asia's most important three economies, Japan and South Korea are at loggerheads in control problems, at the same time, Japan and South Korea are also worried about signing FTA with China will impact the domestic agricultural market,
or don't think there is no need of signing FTA - signing FTA can also obtain the benefits of "super national treatment" from China, in the short term can't see between these three countries have a strong will and the possible trade liberalization.
But accelerate the construction of FTA in the region is a very important topic.Passive involvement in the subprime crisis, east Asian countries is a major reason is that through the export-oriented economic ties with the us and Europe market tied too tight.If the east Asian countries can expand mutual trade and investment, in the area of its external dependence is bound to greatly reduce, even if the real economy to a recession in the us and Europe, east Asia can still maintain the local prosperity.
The monetary and financial cooperation, 13 years after the end of the Asian financial crisis, the parties also obviously lost momentum.On the basis of the Chiang mai initiative, though, China, Japan and South Korea and the asean capital contribution of the east Asian foreign exchange reserve of $80 billion last year reached a preliminary consensus scale;But on the other hand, in the past decade, the scale of the Asian bond fund has been unable to expand, the two bonds totaled $3 billion, however, is hardly enough to meet the need.To speed up the construction of the region's bond markets, but not response to the crisis of the firewall, it also helps to east Asian countries to reduce the U.S. debt holdings, realize the diversification of foreign exchange reserves investment.China and Japan,
with more than $700 billion of U.S. debt, South Korea and some asean countries held the scale.
Therefore, rather than dealing with the regional economic integration in east Asia dispirited and discouraged, but to take opportunity to accelerate and to catch up.Of course, in the process, also should fully learn from Europe and North America in the regional integration process of the mistakes, to reflect the advantage of backwardness.