The federal reserve to press the key of raising interest rates
global monetary policy toward more complicated
In 2015, the difficulties and the global economic recovery, further widening gap between developed and emerging economies, the world's major central bank policy game between also increasingly fierce.Will be back in a new round of global easing tide, when the federal reserve in this year's last policy meeting press the key of raising interest rates.If from the federal reserve at the end of 2013 officially launched quantitative easing (QE) exit mechanism, "differentiation" will become the pronoun of global monetary policy pattern, so, the fed's move to raise interest rates commitments are marked the stage of global monetary policy thoroughly into the essence of sync.Just in the bank of England rate will drop by low inflation problems at present, the global pattern of monetary policy from "American and British tight, loose the day, emerging dilemma" turned into "the tight, loose the day, the British embarrassment, emerging dilemma" of chaos.Looking ahead to 2016, when the global economic recovery has no obvious improvement, the looser environment, this kind of sync will still continue. The fed to the central bank "hesitate"
In response to the financial crisis, the fed has carried out since 2008 rounds of QE.As the economy improves, the federal reserve opened a timely policy "turn", successively launched QE exit process at the end of
2013, and at the end of the meeting as scheduled last October the asset purchases, six years ended the era of unconventional monetary policy.Since then, the federal reserve has been focus on labor and inflation these two indicators, a premade point to raise interest rates.In many times after hesitation, Beijing time on December 17, in the morning, the federal reserve finally live up to its promise, realized for the first time in nearly 10 years, also sounded the death knell for the zero time.
At the moment, the focus has shifted from the federal reserve's "when to raise interest rates" to "how to raise interest rates".From the past 30 years of experience analysis, five rounds of relatively complete cycle of each cycle amplitude are more than 300 basis points.According to the latest fed policy-setting lattice figure, the fed expected interest rates to 1.375% by the end of 2016, which means that in each of 25 basis points rate increases, the fed will raise interest rates next year 3 to 4 times, higher than the market consensus forecasts of a twice.But the analysis thinks, based on the current U.S. economy performance, especially the inflation target has yet to reach, to raise interest rates next year 4 times should belong to small probability event.In addition, as the fed chairman yellen say, if the economy, the policy will continue to be relatively loose.Such statements in previous rounds at the beginning of the cycle is unprecedented, as a result, the interest rates will no doubt highlight the
characteristics of the "progressive" and "mild".According to Goldman sachs, Morgan Stanley is expected, the second to raise interest rates until next march, the earliest previous is unlikely to raise interest rates. Compared with the fed's decisive, the bank of England is hesitant.After refused to raise interest rates early on Thursday, the bank of England recently released doves signal for many times, looking like a with the posture of the fed's "vanish".Objectively speaking, the central bank to raise interest rates is not yet mature.November inflation is achieved nearly four months of positive growth for the first time, but from the central bank's 2% target is still a far cry from.According to the forecast of the bank of England, the country's "headline inflation will remain below 1% in the first half of 2016", this or a hint or raise interest rates next year.Despite its repeated, domestic policy has nothing to do with others, but in the face of overweight loose the European central bank and has entered the fed tightening cycle, the bank of England's situation is very awkward.Even some speculate that sustained low inflation will force it to "yield" liberal camp.
Loose wave swept through the global strength of the European central bank to strengthen
In 2015, the us and UK austerity alliance disintegration is another distinctive feature of led in the boj, loose wave to the rest of the world.In the year to date, in addition to the Brazilian central bank to raise interest
rates on four occasions due to stagnation, Ukraine's central bank under the escalation to Ukraine in the first quarter of continuous increase in the discount rate and againfinancingRate, the vast majority of global central Banks use the cutting tool, and a lot more than once to cut interest rates.Can say, "acting" by many central Banks, global easing expectations have been lit.For these economies, the commodity bear market is increasing the risk of deflation, the lack of demand recovery, under pressure on liquidity may be the only choice.In such a large loose camp, just as a "leader" of the European central bank has been referred to as "insufficient".
On October 22nd, the European central bank's policy-setting meeting released doves signals exceed market expectations.On December 3rd, because of this, for its decision to cut interest rates on deposits to 0.3%, and extend the deadline for implementation of quantitative easing in March to 2017 or more decision, big market "not enough".This leads to the euro after the meeting had surged, German yields significantly upward, the dollar index fell nearly 2%, gold and other commodity prices also fluctuate.Looking forward to next year, the market's hope that the European central bank to more bold and decisive.
Compared with the European central bank, the bank of Japan's liberal stance is no suspense, or criticism.On December 18, the bank of Japan in this year's last policy meeting on fine-tuning of monetary policy, let the
market was surprised, highlights the sense of urgency.In the bank of Japan's point of view, fine-tuning policy aims to stimulate the economy, achieve 2% inflation target as soon as possible, just have been confronted of quantitative easing (QQE) controversial, can truly achieve the desired effect remains to be the test of time.
Emerging markets in a bind Need to be mindful of liquidity risk For emerging market countries, "the fed raising interest rates," the sword down at last.Markets, of course, have been numerous preview this moment comes, after all, before when expectations of higher interest rates, emerging markets will experience capital outflows, currency devaluation, market volatility, harder to monetary policy.But when that time arrives, emerging market liquidity alarm rang again.
Since the second half of this year, and emerging market countries overall is in a state of capital outflow.In December, EPFR global track of emerging marketsstockFunds outflow fell to lows, 5 weeks after the federal reserve to raise interest rates, is expected to outflow will also increase.
Capital outflows, coupled with emerging market countries generally are faced with the decline in economic growth, the domestic economic structure transformation to specific problems, such as, increased the difficulty of the monetary policy.If want to prevent capital outflows, raising interest rates is undoubtedly the most effective method, but the
monetary tightening and does not apply to the weak economic fundamentals.Therefore, for a long time, as the European and American monetary policy differences, emerging market countries tend to take in a passive state, and the internal difference is huge.Has good economic fundamentals in China, foreign exchange reserves sufficient economies, strong ability to resist external shocks, policy adjustment space is relatively abundant.For Brazil, India, a "double deficits" countries such as Indonesia, due to long-term can only rely on short-term capital inflows to compensate for the trade deficit and external risk defensive weaker, different policy cycle.