The true decoupling dollars?China issued new RMB
China yesterdayForeign exchange tradingWhether CFETS center including 13 kinds of currenciesThe yuan's exchange rateThe index.Domestic commentators, this reflects the policy to guide the market transformation of the yuan, no longer see it as withThe dollarPegged to the currency.Western analysts believe the move against the U.S. dollar to the yuan opened the door, on the eve of the federal reserve to raise interest rates emphasized the yuan currency basket, suggests that even if the fed raising interest rates in the future drive also does not represent the yuan appreciation.
Yesterday, the China foreign exchange trade center published for the first time whether CFETS the RMB exchange rate index.The index including 13 kinds of currencies, including dollars in a basket of currencies of weight is 26.4%,The euro21.4%,The Japanese yenIs 14.7%.Released the same day, offshore yuan against the dollarThe exchange rateBelow 6.56, a four-year low.Yesterday onshore renminbi exchange rate at 6.4553, a new low since August 2011.As of yesterday, the onshore six losses, weekly decline for August new largest since the revaluation.
On the day of the people's bank of China website reprint Chinese currency network commentator, said the yuan's exchange rate should not be in us dollars for reference only, should also be a reference to a basket of currencies.The new yuan exchange rate index will help to guide the market to change the past habit of focusing on the bilateral exchange rate against the dollar, the reference to a basket of currencies to calculate effective exchange rate gradually as the main frame of reference of the RMB exchange rate level.
Strengthen the awareness of RMB $decoupling For depreciation?
British asset manager Standard Life Investments that introduction of the RMB exchange rateThe new indexSuggested that China to prevent the yuan's trade-weighted exchange rate strengthened, may stand for the yuan against the dollar.The agency's economists Alexander Wolf thinks,
The Chinese government is trying to set the yuan's exchange rate expectations again, "when they said they hope the renminbi stable, meaning the trade-weighted exchange rate stability, not referring to the yuan exchange rate against the dollar. The dollar further strong for the future when the yuan against the dollar devaluation to open the door."
thefinancialTimes mentioned that Chinese officials stressed the value of the yuan currency basket to analysts felt that the people's bank of China brewing gradually allowing the yuan to depreciate.Hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners, a co-founder of Stephen Jen, say: "announced the peg to a basket of currencies or reference to a basket of currencies may also dismissed the guilt of competitive devaluations for them."Nomura's head of emerging markets Stuart Oakley said, after the us government can hardly blame China to allow the yuan against the dollar.
Bocom international also thinks that, if the emphasis on a basket of currencies rather than the dollar, is likely to be "excuse to depreciate against the dollar.Its thought, the new RMB exchange rate index practical significance is not big, the weakness of the economy, capital outflows and monetary easing both support depreciate the renminbi.The people's bank of China should reduce intervention, let the market pricing is an important step in the market.
Picture below shows the renminbi since 2010 (white), yen (orange), and the Mexican peso (green) and the euro (blue) of the real effective exchange rate movements.
Save for a rainy day The fed to raise interest rates to prevent effect?
capitalThe macro, chief China economist Mark Williams, points out that in the past few years because the yuan peg to the dollar, actually read any of the yuan against the dollar will be weaker market for depreciation, sparked concerns.The whether CFETS the timing of the index is very important, just may be driving the fed a stronger dollar or will raise interest rates.If under the background of a stronger dollar currency weakening, should not be automatic interpretation for depreciation.
The Wall Street journal's report also mentioned the fed will raise rates this important background, thought, when the federal reserve to raise interest rates any emphasis on the yuan to a basket of currencies, not just against the us dollar's move would give China greater operating space.Swiss privatebankThe Union Bancaire Prive of senior strategist at Koon Chow pointed out:
"They are in preparation for the fed to raise interest rates, interest rates are expected to make the dollar, they don't want to defend their currencies in trouble."
Bilbao, Spain, open a bank BBVA believes that the RMB exchange rate is essentially a new index to convey to the market information, the RMB exchange rate in the future to make the basket as important references, gradually achieve float.The central bank will do to prevent excessive depreciation in the short term.The bank still expect the yuan against the dollar to stabilise after the devaluation to around 6.8 next year, against the U.S. dollar is about 3%.
Morgan Stanley investment management, research director at the company's emerging market sovereign debt Jens Nystedt is expected, according to the China foreign exchange trade center the basket, the RMB exchange rate may decline from 3% to 5% next year, the yuan against the us dollar might be a digit declines.Its thought, the new RMB exchange rate index reduced China to let the yuan against the us dollar devaluation in one chance, emphasize the basket before the federal reserve to raise interest rates mean that the future more dollar also does not necessarily mean that the yuan appreciation.