A drop in oil prices or collapse of the federal reserve to
Russia is refers to the behind
Since this year, the rouble against the dollar depreciated by about 20% in total.Big depreciation makes in the rouble become a global currency, is selling one of the most severe currency.
The rouble crisis
Cause the rouble devaluation for two reasons: first, the sanctions imposed result in western countriesRussiaCompany financing difficulty, to strengthen the market to RussiaRossPessimistic expectations of economic growth.Second, as an important energy exporting countries, Russia by oil prices tumbled (74.46, 0.25, 0.34%).
Affected by the crisis of Ukraine, march gradually joint sanctions against Russia, Europe and the us currently sanctions range has expanded to the energy industry of national economy, finance and other relations.The depth of oil prices plummeted rely on energy exports of Russia's economy.Corporate profits will be squeezed, reducing of investment in fixed assets, fiscal revenues, government spending, the economy will get worse again.The three major international rating agencies have downgraded Russia's sovereign debt rating.Moody's and fitch to Russia's sovereign credit rating to the second-lowest investment-grade rating, while the standard & poor's early will Russia's rating to only on a level higher than junk.
Poor economic performance, leading to produce pessimistic expectations on the stability of the ruble, the rouble devaluation expectations as a result of capital flight.In the first nine months, companies and investors to withdraw 95.9 billion dollars from Russia.To avoid the rouble devaluation, the Russian official use nearly $40 billion to maintain exchange rate stability.If can't continue to prevent capital outflows, Russia's foreign exchange reserves will reduce further, the rouble will fall further.
Funding to the federal government budget and relief from sanctions affected by Russia's important enterprises, the Russian government in the next three years may use the Russian federal reserve fund of 1.5 trillion roubles.To increase the ability to resist risk, Russia will also originally used for welfare fund federal bailout fund budget allocated to the crisis.Key support their own industries at the same time, strengthen the support of its agriculture and restrictions on foreign food imports, to protect their own products in the food industry's share of more than half.Ministry of trade and industry is formulating relevant laws and regulations, restrictions on imported cars to buy in state-owned enterprises, through the tax preferential policy support, such as domestic auto industry development.Outside of Europe and the United States and strengthen cooperation, strengthen the regional cooperation between countries, in order to reduce the impact of western sanctions.
If oil prices continue to fall
As an important energy exporter, 75% of Russian exports to oil and gas, energy resources also contributed 50% of the Russian government budget revenues.Russia's budget dependent on international crude oil prices and the recent federal government submitted to parliament's 2015 budget draft is according to the oil price of $96 a barrel.The Russian federation savings bankdataIf, according to maintain a general balance of Russia's fiscal crude oil prices to $104 a barrel, to remain above $110 a barrel, to make positive contribution to Russia's growth.
If oil prices continue to fall, the federal government will have to readjust the budget cuts in recent years economic development project approval, cut Russia's investment in the short term, long term will make the economy lacks momentum.In addition, Russia has a third of the goods need to be imported from abroad, the rouble devaluation would increase the cost of imported goods, lead to the prices continue to rise, imported inflation occurs, causing public dissatisfaction with the government.
The market environment has become more adverse to Russia.The United StatesShale gas revolution change greatly makes the global energy market pattern, the current U.S. oil and related liquid for nearly 30 years in the oil and gas production peak, produces about 11.5 million barrels a day, the production is close to the world's largest oil exporterSaudi ArabiaThe production.Despite the slump in oil prices, but did not plan to adjust its production decisions of the petroleum exporting countries.Saudi Arabia said Opec's core members, the more focused on the international market share, rather than their valuation.Influenced by western sluggish recovery and slowing growth in emerging economies, a continued weakening demand for oil will become the norm.In the short term, difficult to change the trend of oil supply exceeds demand, oil prices will remain in the doldrums.
Oil prices fall further, will enable the Russian economy into stagflation.Morgan Stanley, according to the price of crude oil per drop $10, Russian exports will be a loss of $32.4 billion, the proportion of the amount of Russian GDP of 1.6%.According to the algorithm of Morgan Stanley, oil prices plunged make Russia's GDP fell by 4.8% in five months.If oil prices remain at the current price of $80 a barrel, the Russian economic growth rate will be 2% next year, inflation rose to 9%.If oil prices continue to slump to $50 a barrel, Russia will be 6% of the recession, inflation rate is as high as 13% ~ 15%, serious stagflation, Russia at risk of collapse.
Bad economic situation, to strengthen the investors and the rouble holders of pessimistic expectations, capital outflow, which in turn makes the rouble devaluation, further into a vicious circle.
Turn the lever is behind
The fed's turn lever was behind the rouble devaluation.After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the United States to perfect the market system, especially the bankruptcy protection system off its rapid implementation capacity and leverage to change.Characterized by the sharp decline of industrial production, capacity
utilization, fell sharply in the decline of the bankruptcy, a large number of employment.
Capacity of collapse with bank non-performing loans soared in the United States, in order to prevent credit endogenous a vicious cycle of debt deflation and contracting effect, the government actively aggressively to water injection and the federal reserve bank purchase non-performing loans.This process is accompanied by a substantial decline of the dollar, risk-free interest rate dropped significantly, and rising unemployment.
Bank bad debts was new money exchange, interest rates, exchange rates and mass unemploymentThe new economyGrowth and frees up the vast space.If the government science and technology innovation and the other is advantageous to the total factor productivity of industry supplemented by dividend policy, the new economy can grow quickly, corporate earnings trend upward inflection point form.In the continuous, rapid growth of residents' wealth and earnings to improve in the process of waiting for a new round of expansion of the production cycle.
Emerging marketsForeign debt rising is behind the shift lever of the federal reserve.Residents department the destruction of the lever and the government huge amounts of money lead to zero interest rates in the developed countries, "steady financial" profit-driven capital means that the currency would by no financing demand is financing demand into the country.Unbridled ground carry trades rise in emerging market exchange rate, domestic asset price, excessive credit expansion, and the developed countries to leverage clouded the export enterprises, trade imbalances, foreign exchange reserves.More seriously, exports makes further rely on external debt to sustain economic growth in emerging economies, eventually forming path dependence, whereas developed countries rely on lever transfer to achieve trade balance again.
When the United States opened a technology revolution, total factor productivity on the long period, the strong dollar began to attract foreign capital return, the economic growth in developed countries and emerging markets will diverge.Emerging markets on which to add leverage once external liquidity crunch, the basis of this type of capital inflows is easy to reverse for large-scale capital flight.Mass outflow of capital in domestic asset prices down even collapse, corporate balance sheets worsening, accumulation of banking credit risk concentration, rising non-performing loans, currency crisis in the end.
Given the technical progress of trade recovery process is not the end of the correct type, as the federal reserve in the futureIncreases in interest ratesA strong dollar cycle has only just begun.A stronger dollar to innovation-driven economic transformation, the developed countries and emerging market demand will be down for a long timecommoditiesThe price,South Africa、BrazilExport-led economies,
Russia and other resources pressure will continue to increase, which means the devaluation of the rouble cycle has only just begun.
The rouble devaluation geometry effects on China
The rouble devaluation influence on China's economy, mainly manifested in several ways.
On the one hand, the rouble devaluation and Russia's economy slowing an adverse impact on Chinese exports.On the one hand, Russia's economy will directly affect China's exports to Russia;Yuan, on the other hand, has turned to based on market supply and demand, the reference to a basket currency to adjust, but from past experience, the dollar still occupy the important position in the renminbi exchange rate pricing.The yuan against the ruble rapid appreciation will also affect China's exports to Russia.
On the other hand, much of Russia and the rouble crisis triggered by a drop in oil prices, and a drop in oil prices also have some positive effect to China.China's oil consumption power, external dependency is over 58%, the international crude oil prices for oil imports and strategic oil reserves.International oil prices could also reduce the overall energy costs, slow the imported inflation pressure, open space for China's monetary easing steady growth.And a drop in oil prices makes the Chinese government also can have more space to support resource price reforms.