The U.S. economy still does not exclude the
Since entering the second half of 2009, again in inventories, financial market, and improve the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, driven by three factors as the U.S. economy to achieve the strong recovery.The differences of the European debt crisis increased the recovery in the us and Europe, in the first quarter of this year, compared with 0.2% of weak growth in the eurozone, the United States in the first quarter GDP growth of 3.0%, the deterioration of the European debt crisis upgrade didn't seem to have a material impact on the us economy.The American economy the rest easy?Risk without borders, the subprime crisis has not yet gone, and the European debt crisis will hit again, the us is still "secondary downside risks," not rule out future economic or now "damped oscillation.
It is policy stimulus effect attenuation, future economic recovery will be slow
According to the congressional budget office (CBO)'s latest assessment, the purchase tax cut policy, corporate tax cuts and state financial aid policies of maturing and quit, since the
third quarter of 2010, the United States the effect of fiscal policy stimulus will gradually fade, may even be negative.On the one hand, from the GDP growth in the first quarter of this year, reflecting the stimulus of the U.S. government spending is a drag on GDP fell 0.37%, negative effect than the previous quarter expanded 0.11%.On the other hand, from the first index, bureau of the conference in April - leading economic index fell 0.1%, for the first time since March 2009 slipped.In ten leading indicator, the average working hours except spreads, shares, manufacturing, and manufacturing
nondefense capital equipment four new orders index rose month-on-month, building permits, supplier delivery index, the real money supply, jobless claims moving average, the index of consumer expectations, manufacturing, consumer products and raw materials six new orders index fell month-on-month, reflecting the slower economic growth in the next six months.In view of the actual final demand recovery is still weak, as in the second half of the inventory cycle change and policy stimulus wanes, the economic growth rate will fall.
Second, the three major factors restraining, consumption sustainable growth face challenges
Looked from the current situation, although the United States consumer spending rose 1.3%, but the influence of uncertain risks remain us personal consumption, the severe challenge to constitute a sustainable recovery on consumption.In general, the real income (current and expected), credit growth and consumption tendency of consumption is the three most important variables.Look from the three factors, the future consumption are difficult to act as the important task of leading the economic recovery: one is the three-month moving average personal real income growth rate is still historically low, there is no clear upward trend, real personal income of a slow recovery will restrain the rapid rise in private consumption spending.The second is consumption lending remains subdued hinder the recovery.Real estate credit from commercial bank credit and the personal consumption credit card credit account rate and default rates, the above two big market recovery energy shortage, which continued growth have a negative impact on the future of the U.S.
recovery.Three is the propensity to consume has significantly changed.In higher unemployment continues, household wealth has not increased significantly under the background, rapid change has happened to America's propensity to
consume, in March 2010, the us household savings rate has plunged to 2.7% from 6.4% during the crisis the highest, in some sense, the rapid decline in savings tend to show that actual consumption growth may be part of the United States now overdraw the kinetic energy of the future.
3 it is stimulus fade out, the U.S. real estate may be secondary downside risk
As the U.S. housing market stimulus policy, the real estate market is still at the heart of the fragile recovery.First of all, the real estate market oversupply is still in accumulation.At present, the residents' housing foreclosures continue to increase.In the first quarter of 2010, 900000 homeowners receiving bank confiscate house notice.1 to 3 months of this year, the total number of buildings were bank foreclosures nationwide, than the same period last year increased by 35%.In addition, the housing crisis as foreclosures homeowners, than the same period last year increased by 16%, 7% increase from the previous quarter.According to the current trends, by the end of this year, was confiscated by the bank on sale figures for the whole year will be more than 1 million households.Foreclosures increase not only cause bank bad debts scale continues to expand, and because the bank
will be a large number of foreclosures on the market to get their money back, the real estate market oversupply situation will get worse.After house prices in the second half of 2009 to modestly, in January 2010 in second fall, 1, 2,
month-on-month fell 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.In addition, commercial property prices also in January 2010, after a brief rise again in February fell by 2.6%, compared with the same period in 2009 fell 25.8%, the hint of the real estate market is still not optimistic.The real estate market is still a big obstacle to a steady economic recovery in the United States.Second, the real estate prices to fall 5% to 10%.Standard &poor's (S&P)/case-shiller housing price index showed that American house prices rising at an annual rate of 2% in the first quarter, as the first annual rise in recent years, but due to the end of tax incentives and foreclosures continue to increase, prices in the first quarter is still down 3.2% compared with 2009 in the fourth quarter.At the same time, American house prices in March from sixth consecutive monthly decline.Eight big cities regional house prices hit new lows, respectively is: Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, charlotte, Las Vegas, New York, Portland and Tampa.U.S. sales of existing homes rose 7.6% in April. Finally, the real estate foreclosure rate will continue to
deteriorate.In the U.S. home foreclosures in the first quarter than the 16% growth, quarter grew by 7%, home foreclosure volume reached 932000 cases.March April foreclosures than continue to rise, a record of 92432 cases.In addition, according to Zillow.com, according to data from the first quarter, more than 1/5 of America's housing market has been lower than mortgages, proportion has risen from 21% to 23% in the fourth quarter of last year.
Four is the risk has not been eliminated, how to remove toxic assets would be a big problem
As a result of the subprime mortgage asset bubble burst after bring the U.S. financial system internal large amounts of toxic assets.And these toxic assets are basically not dealt with, but with the modified way of accounting rules and frozen debt repayment, temporarily cover up the bad loans of financial institutions, or moved to the fed's balance sheet.Due to last year to this year, America's housing and credit card loan defaults, and foreclosure rates high.Therefore, how to repair the financial institutions and the fed's balance sheet, removing toxic assets will be a big problem of America's future.