Resolution the three big central Banks blockbuster hit the dollar index highs

By Lewis Arnold,2015-09-10 11:26
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Resolution the three big central Banks blockbuster hit the dollar index highs

    Resolution the three big central Banks blockbuster hit

    the dollar index highs

    The European central bank (ECB)Since the policy decision,The dollarIndex slipped to recover after high on Wednesday (Dec. 9) the dollar index fell below 98 mark, again refresh 4 to 97.62 low.Since the dollar index intraday highs, non-us currency overall rebound, the performance of the commodity currencies weaker, while European currencies rise across the board.While the dollar is weak, but including Goldman sachs, the investment Banks and hedge funds still bullish dollar in next year's performance.On Thursday the market will be welcomedThe bank of EnglandAnd the fed, and New ZealandThe Swiss national bankInterest rate decision, in the currency market is expected to sweep of a whirlwind of violence.Days to Europe and the United StatesdataSparse, China the news sparked widespread attention.The state council executive meeting on Thursday through documents, clearly put forward within 2 years as of the date of enforcement of decision, the authorization to be listed on the Shanghai stock exchange, shenzhen stock exchange trading stock public offering shall practise a system of registration.Analysts pointed out that the registration system of short-term negative impact on the market trend, mildly positive for a long time, in the short term the market will adjust, especiallyThe gem

    Draghi was less than expected doves a boostThe euroDollar weakness but agencies still see more dollars

    The United StatesThe ministry of commerce (DOC) according to the latest data published on Wednesday, U.S. wholesale inventories in October month rate decreased by 0.1%, lower than expected increase of 0.1%, suggesting the economic growth is expected in the fourth quarter or downgrade.

    In October, the Commerce Department said wholesale inventories mainly because enterprises to intensify efforts to reduce unsold inventory.Inventory data has to shrink by 0.56% in the third quarter economic growth, increased the difficulty of the growth of 2.1% this year.

    (U.S. wholesale inventories in October month rate, source: FX168 business network)

    Review (Reuters) - U.S. wholesale inventories in October month rate, according to the U.S. wholesale inventories in October month rate recorded decline, mainly because the enterprises intensify efforts to reduce the unsold inventory, in which both durable and nondurable inventories has decreased;Today's wholesale inventories data may make economists lowered expectations of U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter, inventory data has made economic growth is a contraction of 0.56% in the third quarter.

    After November non-farm payrolls report, market expectationsThe federal reserveOn DecemberIncreases in interest ratesA few a foregone conclusion, but the market has been fully reflects the expected, and the European central bank easing less than market expectations, the pent-up boosted the euro, the dollar index pared gains from high drop sharply, days after the dollar index fell below 98 mark to 97.62, refresh the 4th low;Decision on euro/dollar surged more than once on the day of 400, rose to 1.09 above threshold, days after the currency pairs, again broke the silver last week's interest rate decision after the euro/dollar record highs, refresh a high point to 1.0991, 1.1000 mark.

    Graph (eur/usd 60 minutes, source: FX168 business network)

    According to a well-known industry fund managers, even if be a "superMario, "said the European central bank (ECB) PresidentMario draghi"Hit" (Mario Mr Draghi), hedge funds are still bullish dollar.

    In charge of $9 billion in assets of Pacific Alternative Asset Management Co., chief investment officer at Sam Diedrich said that the European central bank President Mario draghi last week announced a new round of easing, but which disappointed some investors.

    On December 3rd resolution on the same day, the silver dollar against the euro hit a six and a half years to its biggest one-day drop.This makes those who bet on the euro depreciation hit;Because of the European central bank expected to implement a more aggressive easing, euro speculative short positions the highest level in five months.

    Diedrich said: "the silver resolution let many people by surprise. Indeed the euro shorts was a hit."

    Including Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs Group inc.) and Macquarie (Macquarie Bank Ltd), such as big lines were cut against the euro this weekThe exchange rateForecast, the euro fall to parity is expected to spend more time.

    However, Diedrich, points out that because the fed is ready to implement interest rates for the first time in 2006 years, policy differences with other central Banks, hedge funds are still betting on a stronger dollar.In many developing countries "economic problems" may also deteriorated, which support the dollarEmerging marketsCurrency.

    Diedrich he said: "at present there are still a lot more than $. If you had a bad day, this is not to say that everything is over, because most of the time the situation will be the same."

    Synchronization with the euro and reboundThe Japanese yenBelow 122, the dollar/yen days pass, refresh low since November 6 to 121.75.The pound/ dollar extended gains to 1.5181, refresh the two-week highs.The spotGold rally to 1085.65, after close to non-agricultural set 1088 highs.

    Dollar/yen 60 minutes (charts, source: FX168 business network)

    The U.S. energy information administration (EIA), according to the latest inventory data published Wednesday in the week ended December 4th, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly, a larger than expected damping.Data showed that us oil inventories fell 3.568 million barrels, analysts expect to increase 252000 barrels of oil.

    Data, after the U.S. WTI crude refresh high at $38.82 a barrel, brent crude refresh high at $41.50 a barrel, but then turned down, dropped to intraday low of $37.06 a barrel and $39.89 a barrel

    (American WTI charts 60 minutes, source: FX168 business network)

    The MarketWatch columnist Myra Saefong pointed out that today's American WTI crude oil prices in the EIA report, the short-term sharp rise $1, then falling again, this is mainly because the week refined oil inventories of nearly 5 million barrels (including fuel), drag on fuel prices fell 1.8% in the United States, to the United States in January WTI crude oilfuturesPrice is a drag.

    The upcoming meeting, the three big central Banks statement financial market is expected to dance

    Compared with the foreign exchange market outsize last week, this week, the foreign exchange market is relatively quiet, but traders still cannot treat STH lightly, because there are still a series of central bank on Thursday meeting statement must be fortified, accordingly, events produce exceptionally good trading opportunities.

    Wait and see: New Zealand after the fed rate cut is the silver the first central bank to cut interest rates?

    Released on Monday (Dec. 7), according to a majority of analysts expect that the fed is expected to New Zealand on Thursday (Dec. 10) at 5:00 am announced to cut interest rates.

    Once in New Zealand the fed cut interest rates, so will be the first after the European central bank cut interest rates last week the central bank action.The European central bank cut interest rates on deposits announced last week that 10 basis points to 0.3%, the continuation of quantitative easing (QE) program at least until the end of March 2017, but did not expand the scale of monthly purchases.

    according to a Reuters poll 21 of 24 economists expect the fed will be the last time this year in New Zealand meeting to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, to cut interest rates to 2.50%.

    New Zealand's last cut in September, for a third successive cutting.Last year in July 3 - the central bank was raising interest rates four times, each time to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.The Reuters poll was conducted on December 7.

    Economists also expect the fed will cut interest rates this week in New Zealand.According to the study of 18 economists have 15 on December 10th, New Zealand the fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% at the meeting.

    The reserve bank of New Zealand (ASB) wrote on Monday in days, this week the fed's New Zealand (RBNZ) should cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and in August next year before further cut interest rates 50 basis points.

    The bank according to the report, given the new RMB exchange rate is high, and oil prices at record lows, trade in goods price inflation has been relatively weak.

    The bank believes that after the fed's New Zealand (RBNZ) too heavily on new yuan depreciation to push up inflation, and hope for the fed to raise interest rates "expectations" as a result, lead to policy is too single.

    ASB, expects new yuan/dollar will fall below 0.6000, the beginning of 2016 will be located not far below 0.6000, the currentcurrencyLocated on a line near 0.6700. FX - Men exchange group, points out that a cut or not to cut?This is a problem.A few weeks ago, the majority of currency watchers to New Zealand fed chairman Wheeler (Graeme Wheeler) will once again cut interest rates expected confidence, but recent economic data show particularly strong, trade activities and in consumer spendingSu MengSprouts.

    In addition, the latest global dairy auction price appeared a 3.6% rebound, suggested earlier price collapse has ended, commodity prices continue to sink is, however, this week's unrest factor, this could be the future inflation expectations suppression factor.

    Although I have been in the last interest rate wheeler said in a statement: "the benchmark interest rate cut when further big probability event", but the rate cut may be ambiguous, no matter what, policy decisions or RMB for New YearThe marketSet the tone.

    The Swiss national bank or similar Investors must remain vigilant

    Years on fore and aft echo drama?On January 15, the Swiss franc market giant shock caused by waste limit door investors may still remember, after in the markets for a central bank's intervention behavior is concerned.

    In fact, the Swiss national bank analysts now do think that may be similar, especially the European central bank decided to extend the duration of QE and further savings interest rate cuts.After all, the Swiss national bank officials hope the euro currency stability, keeping the country's export industry competitiveness.

    Switzerland's central bank governorJordan(Thomas Jordan) and no intention to express for intervention, but he seize every opportunity to oral suppress the Swiss franc.Switzerland's central bank this week's action is likely to mean that the Swiss franc greater losses, the remainder may ensure years following the rise of the dollar/Swiss franc.

    ItalyUnicredit bank, Unicredit economist Tobias Ruehl (December 4) on Friday in the latest report said that after the European central bank to ease monetary policy, the Swiss national bank (SNB) is still likely to target interest rates fell from the current 0.75% to 1%.

    Ruehl said, "the Swiss bank's three-month libor target range was lowered 25 basis points to 1.50% to 0.50% of most likely."

    He predicts that the Swiss national bank will take action to effective against franc remains strong;Main causes include continuous overvalued exchange rate has affected the Swiss economy.

    For the shape of the Swiss franc, Ruehl said, "the European central bank yesterday announced the easing of strength is less than the market expected the dollar/Swiss franc moves may slightly reduce the stress of the Swiss franc, promoted the possibility of the Swiss central bank to lower interest rates on deposits."

    However, economists predict the Swiss national bank on Thursday announced technology is expected to keep interest rates on deposits unchanged at record low of minus 0.75%.Currently maintain stable policy can give Jordan time to assess the European central bank's latest move, and the federal reserve (Fed) caused the long-term effects of raising interest rates next week.

    Though the euro has stopped, but the years are still has risen by 11%, and thus hold down inflation, and affect economic growth.

    Munich Bayerische Landesbank economist Manuel Andersch said, "now that the European central bank only mild cut interest rates, we think that the Swiss national bank will not follow up, after all, Switzerland's central bank to cut interest rates further, must be careful to use the rest of the bullet."

    The bank of England is expected to take a breakdown 1.51 GBP/usd mark

    The BritishBank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) began a two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, although generally it is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but some people expected 20:00 released Thursday meeting minutes content may be slightly more hawkish than the nearest tone.

    Session on Wednesday, the European city, sterling/dollar back above 1.50, refresh the two-week high to 1.5181, the bank of England's policy-setting meeting on Thursday, policymakers is expected to lay down the recent strong against sterling.

    (source: GBP/usd 30 minutes charts, FX168 business network)

    Early last month the bank of England's external development concerns weigh on the UK's growth prospects, after the pound trade-weighted exchange rate has dropped 2.5%.

    But traders expect the bank of England on Thursday announced in the last policy meeting minutes, the sterling exchange rate may not be as nervous as before.

    Because the British economy are showing strong growth, and pay rise, the outside still expected the bank of England will follow us interest rate hike, investors will gradually return to the pound.

    ING (ING) James Knightley, analysts said in a report on Wednesday, the bank of England is expected to (indicate) in tomorrow's meeting to keep policy unchanged, the vote is still the 8-1.He points out that Britain isThe European UnionA nationwide referendum on membership will bring downside risks to the pound.

    Knightley? Said, "the bank of England's interest rate decision is likely to be a non event. The British domestic economy remains strong, the pace of the bank of England to asymptotically towards raising interest rates, at the same time doing everything they can to prevent rapid appreciation."

    He also expects that the wage growth in the first half of 2016 will lead to the monetary policy committee, become more "friendly" against sterling.

    Given that the fed is set on December 16, raising interest rates, the bank of England's words to a certain extent, away from the British and American synchronous raising interest rates, ing to pound the medium-term outlook of optimism fell slightly.

    In addition, the Netherlands international group also pointed out that the British a nationwide referendum on eu membership will bring downside risks to the pound, is expected to the referendum will be held in the second half of 2016.

    However, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley analyst Jacob and Nell said in a report on Monday, the bank of England (indicate) turned suddenly there is the possibility of raising interest rates because of the more hawkish view outside the bank of England's monetary policy committee member and central difference between core members have narrowed.After the bank of England's monetary policy committee 8-1 for keep interest rates unchanged, but the future to raise interest rates may not be so.

    Morgan Stanley argues that the bank of England's existence from 8-1 for keep interest rates unchanged, transition to vote in favor of raising interest rates risk, even if the salary or only mild inflation upward.

    However, the referendum on withdrawal from the eu to Morgan Stanley's assessment of the bank of England rate path risks, if is scheduled to hold a referendum in June of next year, may delay the timing for the first time.

    Morgan Stanley forecast at the bank to raise interest rates for the first time into the time from February 2016 to may, in November 2016 and expected to raise interest rates for the second time. FX - Men exchange group, points out that the central bank governor carney and others about the economic downward review could be a statement after the meeting and the content of the attention in the meeting

    minutes, back in November when the announcement of sterling sell-off, investors need to be fortified.

    For example, the bank of England is still considered likely to keep interest rates at 0.5%, at the same time maintain the size of 375 billion pounds to buy debt.8 the voting results will continue to remain unchanged, but if the mic cafferty (Ian McCafferty) back to most of the camp, so I'm afraid there is no escape from fate.

    Registration system will be promoted the CSRC to voice "reassure the markets"

    Chinese premier li keqiang on Wednesday chaired a state council executive meeting, requested by the standing committee of the National People's Congress authorization of the state council, the implementation of the share issue registration system reform to adjust the relevant provisions of the trial of the draft, the draft is clear, within 2 years as of the date of enforcement of decision, the authorized to be in the Shanghai stock exchange, shenzhen stock exchange listed shares of public offering shall practise a system of registration system.

    "When the National People's Congress standing committee authorized, relevant departments to formulate rules, solicit opinions in public after implementation, and strengthen the regulation of things after the event, to protect investors' legitimate rights and interests."The meeting said.

    The meeting also by establishing state specialized double gen platform, explore a technology group, clean up the deal with a zombie companies;Rein investment in industries with excess capacity;We will accelerate reform of the mixed ownership and so on.

    Meeting also mentioned that after being authorized committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), relevant departments will formulate relevant rules, solicit opinions in public after implementation, and strengthen the regulation of things after the event, to protect investors' legitimate rights and interests.

    This means that, before the completion of the revised "securities law", offering registration system will be first launched, accelerated the process of the highlighted to decide the strategy layer determination to speed up the reform of the securities market.

    Then, the CSRC voice "reassure the markets," said registration system reform is a gradual process, the new shares will not result in a massive scale.

    Securities regulatory commission, said the "registration system reform is a gradual process, not one pace reachs the designated position, rhythm and the price for the ipo won't suddenly let go of, new shares will not result in a massive scale."

    Securities regulatory commission pointed out at the same time, will continue to be in accordance with the existing rules, to do a good job of ipo audit, new issues to accept the work will not stop.Registration system after implementation, existing in enterprise queue order do not make change, ensure smooth and orderly transition of audit work.

    In addition, it also said it would, according to the arrangement of the registration system reform set by the state council formulate relevant department regulations and normative documents, to solicit opinions from the public after implementation.

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