Dollar interest rates and failure or another three and
In mid-december (next week), the fed will hold a meeting to discuss whether to raise interest rates.Because in October and November non-farm payrolls data is very good, a certain extent, the dollar rate for a foregone conclusion.If the dollar decided to raise interest rates, or will begin from January 1, 2016.What effect it will bring the Chinese stock market?First Jun the sea believe that there must be some impact, but the back or will present "again, but three and" diminishing returns.
Dollar rate is negative for all - perhaps the fed meeting in December, the interest rates may not have the too big debate, in other words, raising interest rates a few a foregone conclusion.Dollar interest rates have tone, early in 2009, the fed said, until the second half of 2015 not to raise interest rates, interest rates for the second half of 2015 the seeds.But the second half of 2015, although often have to raise interest rates, but has not been added.But the dollar interest rates expected early began to affect the global capital markets, including stocks, commodities, currencies, etc., in June 2013 A shares had A bitter preview.Interest rates expected to let the dollar index continued to be strong, is now near to 100.Now that had been present huge impact, decided to raise interest rates after will have a "bad"?Temporarily can not be optimistic, perhaps
to raise interest rates for the first time will have a certain influence.
Rate increase for the first time key to affect the size - see the dollar rate increase for the first time, if the larger, certainly too big;If modest, the impact will be smaller.Anywhere in the world, waiting for the dollar to raise interest rates this bad fall to the ground, when the time comes will is bad instead show good?You can expect, but not arbitrary, it is necessary to closely observe.The dollar hike expectations, is the biggest impact of the commodities, crude oil, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, ore, steel and grain commodity futures has been falling for years, some species are close to 2008 low, some even below the 2008 low.Crude oil, natural gas may be special, it influenced by the politics of the United States and Russia is larger.The effect of dollar interest rates after the first to look at commodities and commodity prices may sign will be
accelerated at the end.Currency movements, of course, also can appear reciprocal.
After may "three and again and failure" - dollar rate was the event of global finance, because the dollar currency dominance unshakeable foundations, dollar interest rates is equivalent to tighten global liquidity, under the background of money tight, do more what is more difficult.But the U.S. stock market is very interesting, ended higher after initially
falling trend, perhaps not necessarily affected by how much.Emerging markets may be larger, the influence of China's foreign exchange continues to decline, the dollar outflow of about $800 - $100 billion a month, foreign exchange cut will also affect the stock market development.If interest rates beyond the expected, then for the first time will be more big, the influence of the first amplitude is small, if the back rise is big, the effect will be more deep.To raise interest rates as a sword hanging over his head, the more the more terrible, left behind once falling, maybe there will be again and failure, and decreasing effect three son tried to.Decline does not represent can't influence, the impact of failure may also need a process.
Commodities have fallen, for a long time, there are signs band bottom, but the low level, what also can't jump to conclusions.If the dollar interest rates influence, the first reaction must be commodity prices.If commodities are being up, then the stock market will do more than plate switch, if the commodity is only a weak rebound, the stock market by the positive impact will be relatively small.