Monetary policy for the steady growth of blood There
are still big drop quasi space next year
Policy next year will remain steady in slant wide, drop space is larger Monetary policy direction, in 2015 as a wonderful drama, in a sense, but there are unexpected.As a bank staff, xiao li (not his real name) is in the financial markets, monetary policy
Related company stock movements
Every change "pushing" brought about by the market directly impact to his job.
This year cut interest rates five times, four times in the reserve requirement ratio has fallen, "a cut down" is synonymous with monetary policy in 2015."Continuous cutting effect is very obvious, 1 million in loans, about 7% of the interest rate to 7% from the past, that a corporate can save to the cost of twenty thousand."As a joint-stock commercial bank head toward a Beijing branch of the business, since "cut" the zhang, xiao li.Take-off and landing, and says he is empathy, that is "hand positions significantly less tight".He told the reporters, for new customers, the bank is very cautious, but for good reputation and old customers, still can give a loan.
Review this year, in the "steady growth" pressure, moderate monetary policy loose face, gradually creating a reasonable liquidity environment
to real economic growth and low interest rates.And looking forward to 2016, the steady monetary policy connotation and there will be slight variations, as held on December 18 to 21, the central economic work, points out that "the prudent monetary policy must be moderate, flexible to build appropriate monetary policy financial structural reform environment."
Review the looser earlier than expected
The bank of China,Deputy director of the institute of international finance ZongLiang in an interview with the economic information daily, reporter said that this year the central bank policy the general tone is steady, to alleviate our country economy downward pressure, however, create a loose liquidity conditions, in the process of implementation, remain relatively loose monetary policy.
The stability of partial width of monetary policy orientation is evident in the data.According to the early goal, 2015 M2 is expected to grow about 12%, and by the end of November, broad money supply (M2) rose 13.7% year-on-year, the data also hit a record high since June 2014. "From the current point in retrospect, the overall liquidity is more liberal than expected in early."Institute, chief economist at the international help, this is consistent with the change of the whole economic environment, and in a more modest incremental way in advance. "In early 2015, policy level, more is how to adapt to China's economic
growth of the new normal, and at the end of the two sessions in March, the economy stabilises picks up the pressure gradually big, steady growth was placed in a more important position. In this context, looser monetary policy. And in the middle of the year after the stock market volatility, the market hit low, monetary policy and fiscal policy."Zhao qingming said.
Compared with last year, the "1" in the monetary policy this year is more intense.On February 4, 2015, announced a 0.5% drop quasi and directional accurate;On February 28, announced a 0.25% cut deposit and lending rates;On April 19, announced a 1% drop quasi and directional accurate;On May 11, cut its lending and deposit rates by 0.25%;On June 28, announced a 0.25% cut deposit and lending rates and directional accurate;On August 25, announced a 0.25% cut deposit and lending rates, quasi 0.5% and directional drop must;On October 23, announced a 0.25% cut deposit and lending rates, reduced 0.5% and directional quasi.Cumulative count down, the central bank cut rates five times of the year, 1.25% deposit interest rates decline, the country reserve four times, the decline of 2.5%.
From the comparison, total new lending this year the stability of partial loose monetary policy in effect does not "lose" in monetary policy after the global financial crisis in 2008.As of November 2015, from January to November loans increased 11.68 trillion yuan, is the historical high of
9.79 trillion growth of 19.3% over last year.In this view, this year's new yuan credit amount is expected to reach a record high.In comparison, in 2009, the year the loan increase 9.59 trillion yuan, 4.9 trillion yuan jumped 95.7% compared with 2008, nearly doubled.
The personage inside course of study says, 2015 partial width of monetary policy is not to go back to that kind of big water in 2009, but under the influence of domestic and international economic
environment, under the foreign exchange of the norm of low growth, the need to relax monetary policy this year, to keep monetary policy neutral, avoid passive tightening monetary policy.
Characteristics of the monetary policy tool box is more abundant This year the another big characteristic of monetary policy is, in a cut down quasi traditional monetary policy tools, such as the central bank's monetary policy tool box is more abundant.Central bank is not only the use of more PSL and MLF, its creation in 2014 of monetary policy tools, but also launched a new monetary policy tools, credit assets pledged further credits.The use of these tools, make the central bank will total combined adjustment with directional adjustment, also highlight the characteristics of the preset fine-tuning.
Credit assets pledged further credits, it is to point to a bank will meet all the packaging of credit assets of the business to establish collateral asset pool, apply for registration in advance to the central bank, the bank for
the record from the bank credit asset pool, select the appropriate credit assets according to certain proportion to pledge after discount, and then extend further credits to the bank funds.In October this year, the central bank announced that in the early stage of the shandong, guangdong to carry out the credit assets pledged further credits on the basis of the pilot, in Shanghai, tianjin, liaoning, Beijing, chongqing and other nine provinces (municipalities) promote pilot.The personage inside course of study analysis pointed out that the credit assets pledged further credits as the stock of credit assets as collateral to supplement the monetary base, the mechanism may be the central bank monetary change a new important channel, and its operation, because of different financial institutions can be targeted for differential incentives, thus highlights the orientation of monetary policy, quantitative control, with the launch of the PSL are equally.
Since this year, the central bank in the PSL, MLF mid-term liquidity adjustment tools such as the use of more frequent and more transparent, thus to build up the so-called medium-term interest rate corridor.Can be expected that the deposit rate of upper limit, and interest rate marketization "form" is completed, the central bank in the future will be more use the toolbox with policy rates mean price type control tool, to promote the transformation of monetary policy to the new
framework.As the central bank research chief economist jun ma has said,
through a series of reforms to unclog the interest rate transmission mechanism, make changes in short-term interest rates and future policy rates can effectively influence all kinds of deposit and lending interest rates and bond yields.
Expected a rate cut down quasi space is large, or with caution 21, the end of the central economic work conference pointed out that the steady monetary policy must be moderate, flexible build suitable for the structural reform of monetary and financial environment, reduce the cost of financing, the reasonable abundant liquidity and total social financing moderate growth, increase the proportion of direct financing, optimizing the credit structure, improve the exchange rate formation mechanism.
Greater China chief ding shuang, an economist at standard chartered bank, recently in an interview with the economic information daily, reporter said that in view of the capital outflow is likely to be a continuous phenomenon, so in order to maintain a neutral monetary growth, need to keep down.He said the government will intervene to prevent speculative up based on outflows and the inside and outside the balance sheet of the enterprise will be more balanced, the measure scale of capital flight in China will next year than this year fell by about one-third, under this assumption, if you want to keep the broad money (M2) growth rate of 12%, to 200-250 basis point drop, drop number
should be around 4 to 5 times.But, at the rate cut, many industry experts are more conservative attitude.ZongLiang said, considering the dollar interest rates, inflation pressure is not too high, including the domestic market cutting tools may be used carefully.
In fact, in the context of the overall economic growth, partial loose monetary policy of the phenomenon of diminishing marginal utility has been more and more people realize that."Cut down in a row this year at least release the obvious signal function, some enterprises also have indeed benefit. However, from the perspective of the bank of feeling or lack of high-quality long-term assets, money flows into small micro enterprise reality, and in the case of a shortage of assets, funds between financial institutions idling phenomenon is obvious."Xiao li said, in dealing with the real economy financing difficulties, financing your aspects, monetary policy cannot solve all problems.
Zhao qingming said, however, in spite of this, once have tightened loose guide signs, will hit the market confidence, can't promote further economic recovery."Monetary policy next year will remain relatively loose some."He said.