In 2015 the world economy will go?
Abstract: the international financial crisis has in the past six years, but the world economy is still not calm, all kinds of potential risks are interwoven, and reflects the
four distinctive features of the current global economy.
The international financial crisis has in the past six years, but the world economy is still not calm, all kinds of potential risks are interwoven, and reflects the current four distinctive features of the global economy:
First of all, the global economy is still difficult to get rid of the depth adjustment pressures.Global has by the international financial crisis before the rapid development in deep structure adjustment.The global economic recovery than expected, the output gap remains high, global trade growth is more slowly.According to the world trade organization (WTO) released the latest forecast, global trade growth in 2014 and 2015, global trade growth expectations was cut to 3.1% and 4% respectively, far less than 10 years before the financial crisis in 2008 the average annual growth rate of 6.7% of trade.
Second, the end of the commodity boom cycle trigger price crisis.Since this year, because supply exceeds demand drag on prices, global commodities prices fell about 5%, which is after commodity prices peaked in 2011 fell for the third consecutive year.Especially as the U.S. shale oil output more than OPEC spare capacity, the crude oil market pricing mechanism will be mainly determined by the marginal cost of shale oil by the United States.The shale oil production increase is increasingly profound impact on global energy flow, and weaken OPEC pricing power, international oil prices, the whereabouts of oil free fall from its June high 48%.
Third, the economic recovery pattern in multiple risks.Developed economies and emerging economies are two plates unbalanced economic recovery.Since the international financial crisis in 2008, the United States through three rounds of QE release liquidity, lower bond yields, pushing up the housing market price, and through the wealth effect to promote economic growth.Shale oil crude oil production capacity of technological innovation and to lower its energy import dependence, the trade deficit narrowed to the us economy on the track of healthy recovery.In the third quarter economic growth rate rise sharply to 5.0% in the United States, it is the most in the past 11 years, unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in October, a new low for six years.In the eurozone and European Union in the third quarter GDP rose 0.2% and 0.2%, although the second quarter, a slight improvement but still on the verge of recession and the European economy remains largely driven by currency cycle, a serious shortage of endogenous growth momentum.Japan's economy is 4 to 6 months of calculated on an annual, quarterly sharply shrank by 7.1%, "Mr Abe economics" almost to declare bankruptcy.Growth in emerging economies increasingly differentiation.The differentiation of direction, structure, the differentiation of cycle lead to policy further.The fed out wide, dollars into appreciation cycle, as well as the major economies monetary policy differentiation means money in economies "big into a" pressure will increase, will cause the global financial asset prices, has caused multiple economic and financial market volatility and risk.
Finally, the global economic imbalances gradually weakened.Nearly two years, the developed countries to reduce its current-account deficit, while emerging and developing economies to increase domestic demand (consumption and investment), to reduce the current account surplus, the source of economic growth from exports to domestic demand, the balance of payments accounts as the main characteristics of the imbalance in global trade and capital flows has been reduced by 2006 peak more than a third.Due to the developed economies in the global demand still accounts for a considerable proportion of, so weak external demand will affect the emerging and developing economies, especially those in exports for economic growth of the economy.
Looking ahead to 2015, the world economy as a whole will slow the weak recovery, the United Nations predicts that world economy will grow by 3.1% in 2015.The world trade organization (WTO), expects global trade volumes will grow by 4% in 2015.Unctad expects 2015 global transnational investment scale enlarging from $2014 in 1.6 trillion to $1.7 trillion.
However, in 2015 the world economic pattern is subject to two variables, one is energy and commodity falls in global deflation risks.Weak demand, huge inventory will cause commodity prices in 2015, international oil prices is still difficult to get rid of the situation of falling.
Second, the dollar has entered a strong cycle, will not only accelerate capital flight, and further depress the economy, the emerging economies of many dollar-denominated foreign debt risk, and push up global financing costs rise.The exit of the fed's each round of QE will bring huge impact on emerging markets, especially those with double deficit and external financing dependence high economy, and vulnerable to capital outflows and the risk of
currency depreciation;Due to external risk may increase, at the same time, many emerging
economies also face the grim problem of internal, need more vigilant about local financial
risk to the evolution of systemic risk.