Interest rates up to boost the refers to the silver fed as
Beautiful November non-farm payrolls report, market expectationsThe federal reserveOn DecemberIncreases in interest ratesA few a foregone conclusion, but expected toThe dollarRefers to boost co., LTD., the United States on Wednesday (Dec. 9) below the 98 mark,The euroMeasuring 1.1030 against the dollar or;New Zealand the fed's decision is likely to further rate cuts on Thursday, the big four scenarios will trigger a different market reaction;The bank of EnglandResolution is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but there are still three big attraction investors need to pay attention to.
Interest rates up to boost the refers to the lack of power, the euro or measuring 1.1030 on the mark
Beautiful beautiful November non-farm payrolls report was released, the market expected the fed to raise interest rates in December a few a foregone conclusion, but the market has been fully reflects the expectations, are expected to boost against the dollar is limited, beauty refers to below the 98 mark for the Wednesday, refresh the three trading days low of 97.97;The euro against the dollar set new highs of 1.0989 a month, but the measure on or will mark and 200 - day moving average 1.1030 1.10.
The euro against the dollar figure
On Friday the U.S. non-farm payrolls in 211000, the last item on the uncertain factors influencing interest rates also smoothly, markets expect the federal reserve to raise interest rates in December a few a foregone conclusion;The federal funds
rate, according to the futures market expectations of the fed to raise interest rates in December rose to 80%, raise interest rates rose to 91.7% in March 2016.
The federal funds rate futures risk expected the fed to raise interest rates
Now the fed has no important before December resolutiondataAnd the marketcurrencyHas been largely reflects the expected to raise interest rates in December, good show, long dollar anemic, the former refers to the federal reserve resolution and the euro against the dollar will remain volatile, beauty to measure or low of 97.58 on December 3rd, measure on the euro against the dollar, or 1.10 mark.
Next Wednesday (17 December), the fed will announce interest rate decision and statement, then the chairman of the federal reserveyellen(JanetYellen) held a press conference, at present the most agencies next week, the federal reserve is expected to take "moderate tightening" policy;And if the fed tightening "mild", the United States refers to the possible short-term correction.
The FrenchSociete generale(601166,Stocks!) pointed out that if the federal reserve rates on December 16, but send out partial doves policy statement, the dollar may give a correction has a lot to the callback;In three rounds of cycle in the past have appeared the phenomenon, the bank don't think that would be any different this time.
Mario draghiIn the said at a news conference after the silver resolution,The euro zoneWill inflation at 0.5% in 2016-2017;withoutThe European central bank (ECB)Stimulus measures, inflation will only at 0.33%, indicating that he believes that the European central bank easing measures to boost inflation and to stimulate the economy;But if the future in the euro zone economic data are still disappointing, the European central bank may further easing.
The latest Reuters poll shows that the probability of next year, the European central bank is expected to expand the scale of bond buying was 40%, the current scale of purchases for 60 billion euros/month;Most economists say, the European central bank communication in the past few months and the market is not clear;Expected the first quarter of 2017 the euro zone's quarterly GDP growth will held steady at 0.4%;Expects the eurozone average inflation of 1.0% in 2016, 1.5% in 2017 (before the survey results were 1.1% and 1.6% respectively).
New Zealand the fed cut interest rates, the big four situation market response analysis
Beijing time on Thursday (Dec. 10) at 4 in the morning, the fed will announce interest rate decision in New Zealand, New Zealand market at present the mainstream views expected the fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, a few institutions expectations the fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.25% in New Zealand;In addition, the New Zealand wording of the fed's policy statement is the focus of investors;For different resolution as a result, the market will make a different reaction
Situation 1: New Zealand fed policy wording heavily favoring doves, and a big rate cut of 50 basis points.In the westThe Pacific Ocean(601099,Stocks!Bank expected, the probability of this situation is 30%;And sure enough, the fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points, if New Zealand as the country's two-year swap rate will decline 24 basis points, while new dollar tumbled 2%;
Situation 2: New Zealand fed wording slightly doves, and a cut of 25 basis points.Westpac expectations, the maximum likelihood probability, at 45%.If the fed rate cut in New Zealand at the same time a powerful further rate cut expectations (if necessary in the next few months to cut interest rates again), would provide the force necessary to make new yuan to maintain the recent weakness.In this situation, the two-year swap rate will be down 6 basis points, and new yuan against the dollar would fall by 0.5%.
Situation 3: New Zealand fed wording slightly hawks, but still a cut of 25 basis points.Westpac expectations, the likelihood probability of 24%.At a rate cut at the same time, the fed may be plausible to New Zealand said further easing measures "might" is necessary, but should be based on the performance of the economic data.Soft wording makes market investors were disappointed.The wording will disappoint bear for easing efforts, New Zealand two-year swap rate will rise 7 basis points, 1% new dollar may rebound, but the long-term downward trend of new yuan will not change.
Situation 4: New Zealand fed wording hawks apparently, and continue to stay put.Westpac expectations, the situation of occurrence probability is only 1%;But once so, two-year swap rates will soar 30 basis points, new yuan against the dollar could rebound by more than 3%.
Push up short coveringThe poundSilver resolution, the three big attraction
As the dollar is good show, short-covering continues to boost the pound against the dollar, the currency on Wednesday to refresh the three trading days highs of 1.5095;On Thursday (December 10).The BritishCentral bank interest rate will release
interest rate decision, although the market is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but its resolution wording or will reveal more information about the bank of England's monetary policy in the future, or will affect the pound against the dollar.
The bank of England on November 5, maintaining monetary policy unchanged, and cut in the next two years economic growth forecasts and short-term inflationary expectations, the market expected the current loan interest rates likely to remain until the end of 2016.
Reuters latest survey shows that the bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in the second quarter of 2016, to 0.75% (consistent with previous findings);"Out of the UKThe European Union"Whether or not the referendum is the greatest threat to the UK economy, is expected in 2016, the British quarterly GDP growth of 0.5% to 0.5%.
Although the market expected the bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged this week, but investors need to focus on other information revealed in its resolution.
Concerns a: vote proportion, the bank of England on November 5, as expected in a ratio of 8:1 stability;The resolution vote proportion change could not;But if the percentage change of accident, and then suggests that the bank of England's stance may change.
Concerns two: the bank of England's view of Britain's economic growth and inflation.The bank of England last time resolution, the country's 2015 GDP growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.7%, in 2016 GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.5%, but the 2017 GDP growth forecast from 2.6% to 2.7%.If the resolution of the bank of
England's view of Britain's economic growth and inflation change, or will affect the market's expectations of the bank to raise interest rates of time.
Concern 3: the bank of England for the first time the wording of the plan.The bank of England officials may reveal their opinion for the first time, is likely to affect the market's expectations of a move, and can lead to currency fluctuations.
Royal bank of Scotland (RBS) research team, said the bank of England (BankofEngland) monetary policy meeting in December, we expect the bank of England will not change interest rates.
The bank pointed out that November inflation report shows that monetary policy committee (MPC) is in no hurry to raise policy rates, the federal open market committee meeting will be held a week later, so it is possible that the MPC's position more cautious.On a broader level, we believe that the market sentiment has common expectations the bank of England's monetary policy committee will "follow" the federal open market committee (FOMC), led to the short-term interest rate differentials will greatly benefit the dollar against the pound.