Dollar interest rates, a-share market bull market is
Since the "child not language of the disorderly god of the strange power", our nation is particularly fond of "disorderly god of the strange power".
Callable bull/bear contracts such as stock forecasting, there are many mysterious ways: women skirt length, faye wong is a marriage or divorce, butyl crab effect, CCTV news channel, subtitles, and China merchants securities when strategy meeting and so on.
Are catching up with the us to raise interest rates, online, since the media on a gang began to "becoming", someone found a couple of old figure, argued that the United States to raise interest rates in the bull market of the mysterious relations with China.Conclusion: after the opening round of interest-rate increases from 1 to 2 years or so, China's stock market will be a big bull market!
Pinch the memory: the next round of the bull market, should appear after the end of 2016.
This statement, actually not necessarily can win "officer heart hearts and minds" of joy, the mainstream media always think: our bull market began
from the second half of 2014, and the cow until now, the future will also be cattle.Just from fast cow cow becomes slower, the root cause of the bull market because of the reform.
So, you said that the bull market comes two years later, but because the dollar rate, obviously, "not mainstream""unprofessional".
Then, appears three times in the history of "the dollar rate from 1 to 2 years later, A shares in A bull market" how explanation?
My view is: to say "dollar interest rates" with "A shares bullish," completely pull not half dime relationship, also seems to be too absolute.We can at least understand it: generally speaking, the dollar rate rises will not only maintain one or two years, under normal circumstances usually has three or four years.
Dollar interest rates, is necessarily has just experienced a "recession", the recovery phase.At this stage, due to the economic recession in the United States, will affect China's export, will affect China's macro economy.When the economic recovery gradually sure, the dollar started to raise interest rates, this time China's export orders will continue to increase, improve enterprise benefit.Then, in performance, driven by
China's stock market began to go well.
According to this logic to understand, "$" and a" deep Shanghai stock market bull market "connection.
But stock market problem is very complicated, especially the closed markets in China.The following three factors influence on the Chinese stock market, obviously far more than the impact of the economic cycle:
1, high-level personnel change, and the resulting "bull market demand".In general, a government (10 years) will need at least a bull run, lucky can find two rounds.
2, in the past 10 years, China's the lion's share of the growth is not "+ the manufacturing for export", but "real estate + urbanization".In other words, said is domestic demand rather than external demand to promote the bull market.
3, from the management perspective, in the biggest economic pressure, need a bullish stock market;When the economy improves dawn of time, but not desperate for a bull market.
The next one to two years, China's stock market "from the examination and approval system, in fact" to "register" transition period, for example: the government is trying to heat a DaGuoShui, water quantity, the more the better.Against him with a face pot into the cold water (IPO, refinancing), one side in the add wood stove (gold, huijin buying, as well as social capital).The temperature of the water, is the index of high and low, or high and low valuation.Wood is limited due to the increasing water, finally the pan of water temperature will be lower, until the "temperature" integrate with the international market.
This is the essence of the Chinese stock market at present, as for the United States to raise interest rates, emerging market turmoil, is passing!