The federal reserve to raise interest rates will lead to a flow of cross-border capital flow, the United States
Since last year announced his retirement from QE, about on the marketThe federal reserveThe topic of interest rates will never break, but the fed has been cited but not fat, countless times in the nerve of the global economy.Today, the suspense is expected to be finally solved.According to foreign media statistics, about 78% of the investors think the federal reserveIncreases in interest rates25 basis points.So,The United StatesInterest rates for the world economy and the effects of the capital market?
Chairman of the federal reserveyellenannounce a global holding your breath waiting for the decision.No matter the decision is to raise interest rates or without, it is 0.25 or 0.5%, it is the global"The dollarA good start for a moment ".
The market view that is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points
The federal open market committee will issue policy statements and quarterly forecast, then the fed chairman yellen will hold a news conference.According to foreign media statistics, about 78% of investors bet that the fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, the market believes such a rise is not high.HSBC bank, for example, said the fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, thus reducing the degree of the current policy of quantitative easing.The bank believes that this rate rise was widely expected, in the financial markets are unlikely to cause excessive reaction.
It is important to note that even though the fed's expected economic growth and inflation forecasts are unlikely to be too big adjustment, but the market has point out that average us $interest rates may also beafter raising interest rates down again.This means that interest rates for the first time the prospects for the further tightening campaign is still suspense, may have unexpected financial markets more volatile.
It is worth mentioning, is expected to raise interest rates in the United States beat will stay three or four times a year, 25 basis points each time.In addition, the market point of view is generally believed that the fed the current rate of point selection is correct, the U.S. economy has basically recovered, no need to for emergency measures, if you don't raise interest rates may appear more bad situation.In November, according to data from the U.S. jobs report and non-agricultural current U.S. economic and employment situation optimistic, making the expected rising interest rates.At the same time, the dollar index had reached 100.
Future trends: a few dollars into the cycle no suspense
Data show that the fed is responsible for fulfill their duties of America's central bank, the federal open market committee is its monetary policy decision-making body, every year, eight policy-setting meeting in Washington, dc, decided to adjust the direction of monetary policy.The fed's interest rate decision is mainly based on the economy of the United States.In general, the fed's policy goal mainly is to
maintain both price stability and promote employment.If it is the economy may be weaker in the future, there is downward pressure on prices, is likely to take looser monetary policy, such as cutting interest rates, etc.;The opposite may take interest rates policy tightening monetary policy, etc.
It is important to note that if the fed announced the raising interest rates, will be its interest rates for the first time in more than nine years.This means not only the United States into the cycle, at the same time also means that the United States officially return to normal after the end of quantitative easing monetary policy of the policy cycle.
Review the nearly nine years of interest rate policy, the federal open market committee announced last time raise the federal funds target rate or on June 29, 2006, when after the adjustment target for the federal funds rate at 5.25%.Since 2007, the target for the federal funds rate continued to decline, until December 16, 2008, dropped to zero.Fall is fall, after the United States to enter a period of quantitative easing monetary policy, and through unconventional means to inject more liquidity to the market.Last five years of quantitative easing monetary policy makes the fed assets reached a record high.As of January 1, 2014, the fed's total assets has topped $4 trillion.
At the same time, as the U.S. economy continues to maintain moderate recovery, consumer, manufacturing,The real estateMarkets and financial conditions continue to improve, labor market conditions improve, the unemployment rate to the lowest level after the crisis, obviously improved the quality and sustainability of economic growth, quantitative easing has basically completed the historical mission of response to the financial crisis.Since May 2014, the dollar index has risen by nearly 20%.Widely expected, $2015 will go to interest-rate increases.
Yellen, chairman of the federal reserve also said recently, the United States employment situation continued to improve, support policy in the medium term rebound to 2% of the expected inflation target.The federal open market committee last meeting minutes also showed that the majority of the committee members support to raise interest rates in December.
It may be difficult for external influence: National Day
The personage inside course of study points out, the United States into the interest-rate increases, means less $us market supply, the yield rate and capital will rise, some cross-border flows of money will be back in the United States.Counterpart, which for some emerging economies, is likely to mean that outflows, which may result in the local currencyThe exchange rateThe slide.If emerging economies cope with means such as foreign exchange reserve is insufficient, may mean more risk.In addition, for debt denominated in dollars and revenue with depreciating currency denominatedEmerging marketsCompanies may not be the next time.
In fact,The European UnionAnd Japan and other developed countries but also for the day.Subject to low inflation expectations, and other factors, such as economic lagging, despite the current employment situation better, the manufacturing rebound, but on the marketThe European central bank (ECB)Further quantitative easing expected does not reduce.On December 3rd, policy-setting
meeting of the European central bank, deposit rates from minus 0.2% to minus 0.3%, at the same time extend the asset purchase program for six months.European central bank President,draghiOn that day, said the European central bank will extend the quantitative easing until March 2017 or longer, in order to ensure the eu's inflation rate to 2% target.
It is worth mentioning that the European central bank chief cole (Benoit Coeure) on December 11th, said emerging markets are still of slowing downThe euro zoneThe number one risk to the economy, but for prices and self-reinforcing deflationary expectations of concern has been weakened.In addition, cole said, the European central bank still has flexibility, ready to adjust the quantitative easing plan if necessary.