In 2016 the market how to goPredict the most accurate
analysts don't touch the U.S. stocks and gold
Investors looking to financial markets in 2016, stocks, bonds, precious metals strategist at best warning: don't believe that the consensus.
This year the market was generally positiveThe United StatesStocks, bonds, gold, as a result, all see deluding themselves, a few 2015 forecast again "displayed", a strategist at a unique point of view.
If their forecasts for next year again, the Treasury hopes to show once again the resilience of 12 months,The s&p 500Index returns "disappointing", while gold prices is expected to hit a six-year low.
Most forecasters strong growth earlier this year on the global economy will lead to stock up, lower bond prices.But then, China's stock market turmoil,The federal reservedelayIncreases in interest ratesOn Wall Street, while the opposite to the most benefit.Treasury demand supported,commoditiesPrices fell to a 16-year low, stock markets around the world towards a first annual decline since 2011.
Mizuho Asset Management (Mizuho Asset Management) in Tokyo, a veteran investors Yusuke Ito said: "don't implement market expectations, over and over again. The stock market has started to fall, in 2016 is expected to continue to decline. Bond markets, I think the fed will not many times. And it will also give a bond yields a downward pressure."
The stock market setback
U.S. stocks of professional forecasters at the beginning of this year to "long", a bloomberg survey of economists' expectations, according to the median s&p 500 index is expected to rise 8.1% this year.Instead, influenced by such factors as the decline in corporate profits, the s&p 500 fell 1.8% in the year to date.
Global stock markets also setback, the MSCI All Country World Index (MSCI All Country World Index) setback's 5.5% drop.Emerging marketsThe index has plunged 17%.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Goldman Sachs Group inc.) analyst David Kostin become the "psychic" predicted U.S. stocks this year.He is in the first half of this year the s&p 500 index of target may hit a peak of 1% lower, while the forecast of the end of only a on Monday (Dec. 21) low closing price of 2021.15 1%.
Next year, said Kostin today, the s&p 500 index will be limited in 2100 points, the second year in a row, this also let him become the most pessimistic forecasters.Wall Street analysts expected value is 2216 points.
The toughness of the bond market
Bond markets, predict the most accurate strategist at this time last year is expected at the time, the federal reserve tightened monetary policy will lead to higher bond yields, Wall Street analysts for the 10-year Treasury yields the expected value of 3.08%., however, because of the signs of mild inflation and economic pressure on emerging markets that the fed has been on hold before December, bond yields remain low (2.19%) on Monday.
Forecast this year by U.S. debt -- Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, an analyst with the most accurate "the Guy said LeBas, 10-year bond yields almost next year will be flat with the current level, at 2.22%. His prospects of low inflation and weak economic growth and to accept the media survey of analysts' expectations in the value form contrast, the latter is expected to 10-year Treasury yields rose to 2.75% next year.
This year commodity market rout that almost all analysts surprised, in addition to the pessimistic forecasters.Due to the global weak inflation reduced the appeal of precious metals, China's weak demand tumbled raw material prices, the global crude oil prices plunged excess supply.
Peng and commodities index so far this year, 26% collapse, fear in 08 in the worst financial crisis since one year.
According to the overseas Chinese bank (Oversea Chinese Banking corp.), a singapore-based economist Barnabas Gan, gold fell 9% in the year to date, the end of next year gold further down 12%, to 950The dollarAn ounce, the reason is that the United States rise in interest rates will reduce the attractiveness of gold as an alternative asset.Wall Street analysts' expectations in the value of $1100 an ounce.
Barnabas Gan is bloomberg in the past three quarters track most accurate precious metals analyst forecasts.