next year, the yen will into currency star of the year
World's two most prestigious investment Banks - Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase (JPMorgan Chase & Co.) is expected, after the hit rate the deepest record losses,The Japanese yenAgainst theThe dollarIs expected to gather the major currencies in 2016 of the best performing "crown".
The big investment Banks are due to, 2016 yen against the dollar is expected to beat all the major currencies, become a $5.3 trillion of foreign exchange market, trade "star of the year," stayed in the past four years has fallen 40% decline.
Said the two investment Banks, Japan's current account surplus to expand weakenedThe bank of Japan(BOJ) through monetary stimulus's ability to hold down the yen, the Japanese government even more dependent on fiscal expenditure and reforms to promote economic growth.
Morgan StanleyThe United StatesStrategy, co-head of foreign exchange Calvin Tse said: "we believe that the yen will be stronger than the dollar. Our relative to reach such a consensus, or the bank of Japan may not have new easing measures next year."
Although there are widely expected to dollar/yen will remain near hit a 13-year high of 125.86 in June, but told bloomberg economists' expectations, according to the median estimatescurrencyIn 2016 will fall to 120 or lower level of the respondents more than doubled when the end of September.
The mostThe new economyScientists expected values show that withThe federal reserveRaising interest rates, the dollar/yen to the end of next year will rise to 125.On Tuesday (December 8) in plate, the exchange rate last at 123.10.
Morgan Stanley expects the dollar/yen to fall to 115 by the end of 2016, while jpmorgan forecasts for 110, in more than 50 institutions gathered in bloomberg estimates the most bullish in the yen.According to bloombergThe exchange ratePrediction accuracy, Morgan Stanley last quarter in a ranking of the top 61 institutions.
Survey results indicate that the analyst for the dollar/yen forecasts range from 110 to 110 next year, highlights the huge differences of forecasters.This and the Japanese yen against the dollar so far this year 10 yen in stark contrast to the range, this is since 1976 the most narrow band.
(photo: bloomberg, FX168 financial network)
Since the yen against the decline in 16 kinds of major currencies in 2012-2014, mainly because there are signs that the bank of Japan unprecedented monetary stimulus will soon end, the yen this year situation has stabilized.At the end of 2011 to 2014, the yen fell 36%, but since last December, the yen fell only 3%.
Jp Morgan in Tokyo Japan market research director Tohru Sasaki said: "next year, the yen will become the group of 20 (G10) the strongest currency in the currency. Only based on loose monetary policy is the yen is expected to continue to depreciate, it's a bit difficult."
(photo: bloomberg, FX168 financial network)
Jpmorgan chase and Morgan Stanley have previously to make accurate predictions.They all had expected at the end of 2014, in the second quarter of this year the dollar/yen will be trading in 123, the reality is closed at 122.5.
In the middle of this year the two investment Banks had expected, on December 31 of the yen against the dollar will rise to 121.
Morgan Stanley announced on November 29th, the report said, the bank next year first recommended trading including buying yen, corresponding to sellThe pound、The Swiss franc, the Korean won and the offshoreThe yuan。
European head of currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in London Ian Stannard at the end of November has said: "in the G10 currency, the yen is low estimate of the most serious, from a historical perspective, the yen is a kind of extremely undervalued. Yen performance value may be far better than market
expectations."Stannard, and points out that, in the long term, the Japanese yen will also be supported by the Japanese pension funds back to remit.
(photo: Flickr, FX168 financial network)
Japan's central bank governor,Mr Kuroda(Haruhiko Kuroda) once said that the yen is good for Japan's exports and corporate profits.Morgan Stanley warned, due to Japan's economic prospects are now increasingly become optimistic, the bank could avoid further monetary stimulus.
Including the global head of currency strategy at Hans Redeker, Morgan Stanley analyst recently wrote in a report: "the market overestimate the bank of Japan will further easing. The bank of Japan on the question of" waterproof "position has been from the positive to reluctantly, and this has not been reflected in the forex market."