The stock market over the next two years, or
into retail purgatory!
Thursday deep Shanghai stock market to continue rapid
development, the Shanghai composite index rose 47.91 points, 3584.82;Shenzhen three index all red, grab an eye most gem index, rose 3.63%.But the deep Shanghai stock market trading volume, are shrinking.
Signs from the recent two days disk, main support is very obvious, repeatedly in critical moment lift financial stocks, banking stocks in particular.Estimate now huijin + card "value of ownership, and increased.
After a crash, the stock market is the main control plate level enhances unceasingly.Down, policy and financial support;Upward, "deleveraging", IPO regulation and control means such as registration system reform.Management clearly wants to maintain "clinch a deal the active slow bull market".
On Thursday the market has two big news worthy of attention, we analyze the:
One, register system reform may "shortcuts"
Since finance website first reported on November 21, "march of the IPO registration system reform results", the CSRC has not reject Suggestions.On December 2, the rumors have new version, there are media reports, the registration system of launch or earlier than the "securities law of the changes.
"In the 21st century economic report" on Thursday, interviewed concerned personage, confirmed the possibility.
According to the normal process, launch need to modify the "securities law" of the registration system.Revised draft of first instance have been passed by in April, originally scheduled for August into the second fastest "securities law" was confirmed by December.Miserable is, after a second trial, and SanShen.So, if the normal process, IPO registration system can only be launched in the second half of 2016, at the earliest.
But there are shortcuts can walk.On November 21, reports said, can solve by way of "legal mandate".Specifically, under the state council authorized by the National People's Congress (NPC), or the department authorized by the state council securities regulatory commission (CSRC), by a decision or opinion, things to do first.The practice of similar, and there is no lack of precedent.If so, the march launch registration system reform is no problem.
According to previous reports, after the implementation of IPO registration system reform, the first open stock offering rhythm, release the offering price ", to finally complete the enterprise listed right exchange to the market and enterprise itself.As to how long does it take to this process, no specific account.And this, is the fundamental factor of the future market trends.
My judgment is that the management will touch stone across the river, according to the stock market and economic trends.If the pressure steady growth, the President of transition;If the recovery is faster, the transition will be short.And the transition period, is "valuation of the examination and approval system" and "registered valuation" docking process.I estimated that requires 2 years or so, and now the median p/e ratio of at least dropped by two-thirds.From 60 times earnings, down to about 20 times.The market will become retail purgatory.
Second, China's interest rate will drop to zero?
IPO registration system implementation process, as a process of boiling water.Management mainly do two action: first, the cold water to the pan;Second, the wood on the fire.
"Wood" is, of course, money.One is the gold, huijin to buy buy buy directly, but it is limited;2 it is through the fall, to cut interest rates to stimulate social capital inflows.
According to Reuters, citigroup on Wednesday (Dec. 2) in the outlook 2016 report said that next year's outlook for the global economy is becoming increasingly grim, possible recession in the United States, China could become the first rate dropped to "zero" main emerging market economies.
Citigroup also said that China's deflation pressure and downside risks to economic growth, will force the Chinese government to loosen fiscal policy, allowing the yuan to depreciate.
Here said interest rates to zero, it should be real interest rates, after deducting the CPI rates.Shanghai Shibor overnight interest rates to 1.787%, interbank IBO001 is around 1.795%, estimated annual CPI at 1.3% to 1.4%.The central bank will through a series of monetary tools, guide the interest rates close to the CPI.And the one-year deposit rate would be lower than the CPI, there is negative.And broad money M2 growth, may be in the top 14% in the first quarter of next year.
The flood of liquidity will stimulate the market higher.Key depends on speed of management "add cold water", namely IPO registration
system reform and the implementation of the rhythm, and this, of course, is under control.But as the cold water are added to the management control of the market will continue to abate, ultimately lose control, completely decided by the market.At that time, the original valuation system will collapse.I estimate, that would happen in the second half of next year at the latest.
But the premise is that at present the major shareholders of listed companies, "dong prison high" lock-up period is extended.On January 8, if after selling casually, collapse will happen in advance.So, in 2016, although there are big good money, interest rates, but IPO registration system reform brings huge uncertainty, is unable to avoid.