New Year's market open market is expected
to shake up
Last week the federal reserve to raise interest rates boots, landing shock rebound, stock index return to above 3500, once washed up 3600 points on Friday.More institutions, points out that the current market shrank in early fall after chose rebound upward, with interest rates boots to the ground, the market is expected to further upward
breakthrough.Recommends that investors with a positive attitude to the adjustment of the December market may occur, for some have in-depth study and risk income compatibility good mark, short-term adjustment, for the maximal market layout.
Southwest securities, said from the changing rule of the high interest rates, this round of interest-rate increases interest rates high big probability will be lower than 2007 high, is expected to be around 3%.From the perspective of the performance of the federal interest rate futures, the market is expected to 2016 increases for two times, time to raise interest rates in the second quarter, raising interest rates probability is approximately 50%.According to the fed's previous experience, higher
interest rates to rise for each of the 25 to 50 BP, rates are expected to be completed by the end of 2017.
The root cause of the interest rate cycle weaker lies in the "bonus" industry.After the Reagan revolution "supply" weaker trend is showing a cycle, the root cause lies in long-term factors: productivity gradually lead the United States.This is a historic trend, and after the information technology revolution, shows a tendency of acceleration.Because of the Internet and information technology makes the technology diffusion speed faster and faster, the United States in the new industry leading dividend gradually reduced, the economic development of endogenous power is becoming more and more weak, it become the root cause of the rise in interest rates in the United States.In fact, from the perspective of the iconic industry development of the past round of technological revolution, the American industry and shorter lead time.
Higher interest rates boots landing is expected to become the market upward breakthrough catalyst.The fed to raise interest rates expected to brewing time for two years, the current rate increase has been reflected in the early stage of the market movements.Chose a rebound after a drop-off in early to decline the market at present upward, as the rate boots to the ground, the market is expected to further upward breakthrough.
Societe generale securities, said the index is expected to usher in the first dish up time window.Rates on the one hand, the boots after landing and emerging market exchange rate and stock market is expected to rebound in the window.According to historical experience, for the first time to raise interest rates expected to cash is often dollar highs and risk assets such as emerging market exchange rates, stock market prices rebound starting point.The central economic work conference, on the other hand, the policy more than expected, so as to promote market risk appetite.Reform strength, broken, especially represented by such as reform of supply side iconoclastic breakthrough."Old" in order to improve the efficiency of "model of" creating new hope.
Clinch a deal the obvious atrophy in the recent market adjustment, and eliminate the suspension stocks, all about three-quarters of the stock market in the past month has shrank to clinch a deal amount under a third of the largest, market itself also gave birth to the dish.Neutral assumptions, spring market starting point in early January next year, the main disturbance factors include the book back to the table at the beginning of the end funds pressure, and at the end of the rank appraisal institutions represented by public funds after adjust the position structure caused by fluctuations.
Recommends that investors with a positive attitude to cope with the adjustment of the market in December.Societe generale securities pointed out that the more money, the economy is weak, the government actively use capital market services for transformation of certainty, market systemic risk is not big, therefore, should remain bottom line thinking.Based on the judgment of the spring market drivers, even calculated according to the latest closing, over the next three to four months, whether the Shanghai composite index, or gem component index, space is greater than the downward space up.Based on the principle of price time important, actively seeking alpha layout.For some have in-depth study and risk income compatibility good mark, use short-term adjustment, for the maximal market and even the layout for the whole year next year.From the point of next year, the effectiveness of the alpha strategy will significantly more than this year.
Look from the layout direction, zhongtai securities pointed out that as the 2 trillion PPP projects fall to the ground, short-term continue to advice to focus on steady growth subject three investment direction: the underground pipe gallery, sponge city, environmental protection, at the same time, more advice to focus on "new" steady growth "ushered in" the main character in the upcoming: real estate and nuclear power.Transformation, on the one hand, the real estate advice to focus on small and medium-sized market value and abundant cash flow of the
real estate company after the central "to stock" policy "transformation" crossover "nirvana reborn" way;On the other hand, for inland nuclear power restart, advice to focus on nuclear power leading and key parts and components manufacturers such as nuclear power is pure.