the federal reserve to raise interest rates or hit the
On December 19, us media reported in the financial markets for months after the federal reserve 16 finally take action, the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%.
On December 17, according to the website reported that global financial markets, including Asia, not only to this event, but also boost.After all rates widely expected, it shows that the fed's confidence in the U.S. economy continues to recover.However, there are reasons to worry about the move that could impact.
According to Japan's "daily news" reported on December 18, after the fed's 16th nine and a half years rate decision or will speed up the global marketMoney flowsThe change.Due to the implementation of
quantitative easing into money has started to return in the emerging world, the United States.If emerging countries hit by local currency fall further, the global economy could face further downside risk. Reported that in October last year, the federal reserve's exit from quantitative easing (qe), China's economy has begun to slow, resulting in the global economy environment change abruptly.Capital flight to emerging countries economic stagnation, prices fell again and again. As the United States a raising interest rates, expectations for the federal reserve will continue to raise interest rates in the future, flows into the
dollar momentum could increasingly fierce.Emerging countries in accelerating capital flight and currency depreciation under a further blow.
If emerging economies have been hit, may further recovery of the U.S. economy stumbles.Hike in the fed and the outlook of the world economy are lurking uncertainty.
According to the financial times website reported on December 18, if the fed to continue a policy of monetary tightening in 2016, the country from the United States forecast, it will do so - two particularly vulnerable places may be limited by a very heavy blow, one of which is a lending boom in emerging markets will fade, the other is China's capital flight record of problems, may be forced to let its currency fall further. Reported that the danger is that the tightening monetary policy will be the problem of the credit crunch on emerging markets, increase enterprise debt defaults.There are signs that the huge capital flows into emerging markets in the past 10 years started to reverse the trend of.International financial association predicts that developing countries will be this year for the first time since 1988 capital outflows. Of course, this influence is not balanced for the emerging markets.The biggest impact is such as Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa countries, because they rely on the international capital to support the expansion of the domestic deficits and the profligacy of the enterprise.
According to the report, China is facing another challenge.Its currency cycle is totally out of sync with the fed's monetary cycle, analysts expect the Chinese government cut its benchmark interest rate twice in 2016.The easing of monetary policy is combined with capital outflow problem, is likely to intensify over the next year to the devaluation of the dollar.If appear this kind of situation, probably in Asia as the center of currency war.
According to Japan's asahi shimbun reported on December 18, after nine and a half years in the United States announced plans to raise interest rates is behind the confidence of the country's strong economic recovery.But all kinds of unstable factors still exist both at home and abroad, the fed chairman yellen repeatedly raising interest rates will be gradual pace.
According to the report, so far cheap capital and resources of continuously flows into emerging countries will return for us to raise interest rates.And resource powerhouse Brazil recession just reflects the backflow.This year alone, the Brazilian currency against the us dollar fell to nearly fifty percent, import pricesroseHigh inflation in the country. The same problem also happened in other emerging countries.The South African rand and Indonesian rupiah have depreciated.Turkey, although do not belong to the resource countries, the situation in Syria turmoil lira devaluation, the country's corporate dollar loan expansion.
According to the report, the market for China's economy also have strong concern, the yuan was continued sell-off.But China is still optimistic tone have the upper hand, as a large securities firms predictions, "raising interest rates for the U.S. economy will stimulate China's export of good".
But if America to raise interest rates faster than expected, emerging countries face may only negative effects, and is likely to lead to the global economic downturn further.