Alert to capital outflows
"Outflow rate of foreign exchange in May, greater than the growth in foreign exchange inflows."A finance official told me this information, provided a worry: in the context of the dollar, would capital outflows from China?
There are four facts to reference:
First, the central bank liquidity management without too big move, since April RMB financing market interest rates rise sharply.Lead to central Banks had to exit in policy background, the net for two weeks to the currency market.The problem, why the lack of money the banking system has not been a clear answer.
According to the author, in April 2010, in May, China's four big commercial Banks of icbc, CCB, boc, three deposits are negative was substantial savings for two months deposit scale to reduce 200 billion yuan.Which reduce approximately nt $130 billion in April, may reduce about RMB 66 billion.Reduce foreign exchange deposits is very severe. Big savings to reduce many reasons, such as high interest rate of the joint-stock Banks LanCun, but three big Chinese Banks appear less savings together, through the China financial data, it is very rare.But it shows the banking liquidity pressures.
Second, the RMB NDF market, RMB appreciation expectations have
rapidly dropped to near zero levels.The market appears similar to depreciate the renminbi is expected in the second half of 2008, has been just around the corner.In the second half of 2008, the RMB NDF devaluation to at 6.8 level, from the 6.3 level first and then to value all the way to the 7.3 level, about 15.8%.
Third, the "daily economic news" reporter recently grassroots survey found that the black market in foreign exchange, the dollar needs a boost, including enterprise owner $as asset allocation.And after visit, according to a kunming local foreign exchange large cattle, recent dollar demand is very big, the average daily volume surged to $1 million from $100000, more than $200000 and is about to make an appointment, the weekend two days has changed out of more than $200.
Fourth, in the context of the dollar, the situation has become a global capital flows into the United States, not only has large capital inflows from Europe the United States, also have a lot of capital from emerging markets.
In China, Hong Kong, the Hong Kong dollar weakening, HIBOR interest rates means that the capital outflow, it is so.Continued the Hong Kong dollar weakness, currently has 18 months fell to a low of 7.80 level. Around China's rim, belong to the developing economies of India, and in the greater China economic zone of Taiwan, according to cash flow monitoring report issued by the China merchants securities, in May, the
Indian market small net outflow of funds, the Taiwan market significant outflows.Indian Chambers of commerce and industry (FICCI) on June 6, the report predicts, influenced by the European debt crisis, slowing global investors will be outside the United States investment plan, this will make the Indian stocks and bonds in the next six months continue to face the plight of capital outflow.
In addition, since 2010, the main emerging market currencies against the U.S. dollar almost collective.Among them, Brazil's currency has depreciated by about 6%, Russia 5% currency devaluation, Indian rupees currency lost nearly 6% since the middle of April, the won has fallen by 8% since this year.
The above four looked there is no link, but if in a certain logic, that is, in the backdrop of the dollar, the main emerging market currencies against the dollar collective value, and the outflow of capital into dollars, the problem is that the same phenomenon will happen in China?
There is no doubt that if the outflow rate controlled, we welcome this kind of phenomenon.Since 2003, China's economy has long been a unilateral renminbi appreciation expectations, foreign capital inflows, reverse adjust now apparently can optimize the past always fear of China's economic bubble.
But at the same time, under the economic downward pressure, excessive capital outflows can bring a lot of damage to the economy.The
economic crisis, 2008 years is heaviest pressure on China's economy, for the month of June 2008 increase in foreign exchange reserves of $11.9 billion, substantially below $21.35 billion monthly trade surplus and FDI inflows of $21.35 billion, aggravated the degree of economic austerity capital outflow.
From the point of environment, the international financial environment is very similar to the Asian financial crisis, the dollar, emerging market currencies, capital from outside into the United States.
The current for the dollar to judgment is still a core problem.The author has post ": the rebound or reverse?"Discuss dollar medium-term outlook.The dollar index has fallen from 74 rose to 87.5 in December 2009, or 18%, of the major potential, the dollar index to 90 just around the corner, on the future of the problem is will reach 100 highs.Under this background, this article worry yuan depreciation, capital outflows, will not dream.
Yesterday's trade surplus in May and export growth data, may be the wrong expectations on the market.But we want to know, from February 2009 to April 2010, China's general trade to keep the deficit for 16 months in a row, amounting to $59.5 billion.Compared to trade pattern itself is to create a trade surplus of processing trade, general trade on behalf of the Chinese economy more competitive.The market should not ignore the basic structure of the China trade.