The CPI from the federal reserve to raise interest rates,
oil prices rebounded off for air force
The United StatesThe CPI in line with expectations,The dollarHigh index edged up 20 points, refresh, 97.75;The euroAgainst the U.S. dollar fell below 1.10 mark, Beijing time on Thursday morningThe federal reserveResolution will release rates, dollar positions before the resolution of underweight, and "doveIncreases in interest rates", all may be a short-term boost the euro against the dollar, NYMEX crude oil refreshes the three session high of $37.11 a barrel, but further upside is limited, is expected to hit the bottom again.
CPI expected beauty refers to a small rise in the United States, the federal reserve to raise interest rates again without obstacles
On Tuesday (December 15) released the CPI in the United StatesThe dollar index hour figure
The United States, according to the specific data flat, 11 Chinese rose after the CPI monthly rate in line with expectations, the former increased by 0.2%;Not seasonally adjusted CPI rising at an annual rate of 0.5% in November, is expected to rise 0.4%, 0.2% rise in value.
November is not seasonally adjusted rate of core CPI month rose 0.2%, is expected to rise 0.2%, before the 0.2% rise in value;Not seasonally adjusted core CPI rising at an annual rate of 2.0% in November, is expected to rise 2.0%, 1.9% rise in value.
From the data we can see that excludes food and oil prices volatile products such as factors of core CPI rate has been basically reached the target of the federal reserve, if oil prices in the latter half of 2016, the CPI will further improve, the fed's decision this week before the final piece of the stumbling block has been ruled out, expected the federal reserve has most likely will be announced on Thursday, raising interest rates.
Reuters comment after data points out that the potential inflationary pressures in November, the core CPI data recorded also increase, reflecting the rental cost, air fares and the steady growth of consumer spending on new cars and health care;Despite the weak current U.S. gasoline prices pose some downside risks to the overall inflation, but the rise in core inflation offset the effect of gasoline prices on inflation.
According to a Reuters poll, for the fed to raise interest rates in December, an analyst at the median forecast of probability is 90%, after November 10 forecast of 70%.Bloomberg, according to the latest figures, the federal funds
ratefuturesExpected, according to market expectations for a 76% chance the fed to raise interest rates in December, chance to raise interest rates to 87.5% in March 2016.
Thursday's market will focus on Beijing time resolution description of inflation, the fed if the fed optimistic about inflation expectations, this also means that the federal reserve may raise interest rates at a faster pace.
The federal funds rate futures expect the fed to raise interest rates
The euro fell below 1.10 is expected to shocks, the federal reserve rates "dove" or boosting the euro
The euro against the dollar, dragged down by profit-taking on Tuesday since the days of high 1.1059, below the 1.10 mark;Near the fed's interest rate decision,
expected before the resolution of dollar holdings long positions, may be a short-term boost the euro against the dollar;Beijing time on Thursday (December 17) morning 03:00 the fed will announce interest rate decisions and policy statement, the current mainstream market expectations the fed will "dove", or will the euro against the dollar in a short-term boost.
The euro against the dollar figure
The fed will announce interest rate decisions and policy statement, then Beijing time 03:30, chairman of the federal reserveyellen(JanetYellen) at a news conference.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls in November 211000, hourly earnings rose 0.2%, the market expected the fed to raise interest rates in December a few a foregone conclusion, the focus has gradually from the fed's "when to raise interest rates to the federal reserve how further rate increases;Currently most agencies this week, the federal reserve is expected to take "dove tightening" (dovish tightening) policy, which at the same time of raising interest rates, the release of doves signal.
Due to the current market has been largely accepted the fed will raise interest rates, this week the meeting marketcurrencyHas been largely reflects the expected to raise interest rates in December, before the resolution has no important data, good show, long dollar anemic, once the fed policy statement on subsequent rate increases a dovish signals, or will put pressure on short-term beauty means, boosting the euro against the dollar.
The FrenchSociete generale(601166,Stocks!) (SocGen) on Tuesday (December 15th), points out that as the fed decision approaches, market is more decided by the investors to unwind positions, rather than determined by the investors and a
position, the dollar holdings will boost from long positions in the euro against the dollar.
Wang Ran liang, an economist at HSBC bank (HSBC) Hong Kong Julia Wang is expected, the federal reserve (FED) will raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week, to 0.25% - 0.5%;But statement or releasing doves signal, which hinder the further dollar strength.
The FrenchSociete generale, points out that if the federal reserve rates on December 16, but send out partial doves policy statement, may give a fixed dollar has a lot to the callback;In three rounds of cycle in the past have appeared the phenomenon, the bank don't think that would be any different this time.
Crude oil air force correction for short-term rebound, or dip again in the future
Low oil prices will not last, OPEC's secretary-general said on Tuesday will change in a few months or a year later, expand oil prices rise, NYMEX crude oil to refresh the three session high of $37.11 a barrel, but further upside is limited, is expected to be at $37.75 a barrel to encounter strong resistance;Principals still has no obvious signs that the oil market supply exceeds demand in the short term to ease, oil prices will hit the bottom again.
NYMEX crude hours figure
The organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC), "he (Abdullah al - Badri) said on Tuesday that the current low oil prices will continue, will change after a few months or a year, and the United States of any oil exports decision would further impact on oil prices.
Mr El-badri said that OPEC has no production, and OPEC is looking for a reasonable and fair price;Non-opec countries in 2016 and expected to crude oil production will drop by 400000 barrels a day, and the reason of the decline in output is lower oil prices.
afterGermanyCommercial Banks (at) also noted that non-opec countries with 20 years of oil production are the fastest speed rapid decline;The bank expected, oil supply glut will be eliminated by the end of 2016, as a result, oil prices are likely to be in the second half of 2016 rebounded significantly.
The author thinks that, the long-term weak oil prices will cause the market self-regulation, in the market "invisible hand", under the action of the crude oil market supply glut could not have remained, the end of 2016, or is likely to be improved;However, the recent oil bosses are all oil production, the international market, production calls for a response to a few, is expected to the oil market supply exceeds demand in the short term will continue, oil prices in the short term trend reversal may not, or will hit bottom again in the future.
Sources said on Monday that Iraq's plans to increase oil production again in January 2016,RussiaSay no and the organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) meets,IranAlso will begin in early 2016, exports of crude oil, the oil bosses are all oil production, production calls for a response to a few, the oil market in the short term equilibrium is still hopeless.
NYMEX crude oil weekly chart
On the weekly chart, NYMEX crude oil this week hit a rebound after this year under the downlink channel rail, above resistance at $37.75 a barrel on August 25, (low) and $38 a barrel, $39 a barrel and $40 a barrel, below the support at $36 per
barrel, $35 a barrel and $34.55 a barrel (on December 14, low).