Who is going to stop for the hand of the stock market?
U.S. stocks both the dow and s&p 500 index hit a record high.Note: this is not in the United States economic boom period, but in a crisis., by contrast, China's stock market malaise, and under the policy of STH over and over again, is likely to once again become a "short Chinese forces" dish in fat.Is more terrible, in the face of China's capital pricing is a serious injury, China's top managers no one seems to love, no one is worried for this.At least, when China banking shares were heavily short, Chinese management actually "don't say anything about", this is not true?
Not only to the Chinese capital pricing take an indifferent attitude, and now we can see at least four hands (government, foreigners only one) in the stock market.The first hand is monetary policy.We have numerous analysis, there was a "fierce" appreciation in the yuan again, is the date of the end of the stock market in China.Because it means that the central bank monetary policy incline to tight, means represented by small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) initiative of economic growth will be further harm, means that China's
financial capital for the assignment in their pricing power, means that the domestic part of the Chinese economy to continue to drift into weak.
To this, we can only passive expecting that it might be a short-term phenomenon.After all, the "end of the season effect" in the bank, under the action of tight liquidity, money market interest rates up.Combined with the central bank show the drained a net in the inter-bank bond market, and the window of foreign exchange is the "black box"& # 8213;The & # 8213;End of the season effect, bond market and foreign exchange net cage "black box"& # 8213;The & # 8213;All three together, this will inevitably bring to market "crunch" feeling.The appreciation of the renminbi will not just arising from the short-term effects?Now is bad to say, because the CBRC laid hands on him again, "financial management rules" will be how to impact on Banks' liquidity?This is a "significant uncertainty".If the "new rules" to bring the bank liquidity squeeze effect, and the central bank to cooperate with moderate, the pace of the appreciation of the renminbi will continue.The central bank and banking regulators can cooperate with?History proves that don't.But a new government in this area will change?I don't know.So I said: this
is a "significant uncertainty".
The second hand is the hand of the real estate policy.This is China's stock market is the biggest helpless, don't say, also have nothing to say.
The third hand is inserted into the hands of the bank.China's banking sector is only 16 listed companies, but its market value in the stock market almost a third of the total market capitalization, profits accounted for 50% of the total profits of listed companies.This section is the same as the real estate sector, are an important force in China's stock market.Starting from the day of their restructuring for listing, the same quality of bank shares 10 times earnings to sell to foreigners, more than 30 times earnings to sell to China a-share investors.In the round straight at 6000 points in the market, made important groundwork for the stock market crash in the future, construction bank, for example, the issue price of 6.45 yuan, falling to 2.66 yuan, how great is the influence of the index. It is not.During the financial crisis, the China banking regulatory commission to "great leap forward" regulation, ignoring the market anyway, endless blood from the stock market to bolster capital and provision for coverage.Little imagine, the bank can not get rid of "interest income" give priority to the & #
8213;The & # 8213;Under the premise of the business model, capital is abundant, the greater the operating pressure of bank capital gains, the more you have to lend more, make more spreads, the capital is never enough to use, the central bank regulation for Banks' liquidity more difficult.Now, the central bank had to "hands and feet tied up 23 trillion bank liquidity", although this is too much, but from one side, the more capital, the bank lending, the greater the difficulty is bigger, the central bank regulation nations had to pay for financial regulation cost is higher.
We saw the Chinese banking industry listed companies a vicious cycle "chain".The China banking regulatory commission required capital adequacy ratio, so Banks from the stock market financing;Financing pressure on capital gains, after bank lending, the bank can't again, desperately trying to tighten bank liquidity, pay huge cost money put into the "pool";Central bank tightening, bank and not enough money, also began to financing, equity financing pressure is too great, they start issuing convertible bond, subordinated debt, high interest rate deposits.
The fourth hand should be the hands of the
foreigners.Well-connected jpmorgan chase reported a week ago,
indicating its families borrowing short bank shares, also includes short of Wall Street's masters here.As a result, a week after the China banking regulatory commission issued a "financial management rules".This is a coincidence?If it is, why Chinese securities institutions without knowing?If the foreign financial institutions can always say about China's stock market movements, that China's capital market expectations about who will be?
If China's capital pricing power by foreign financial institutions to master, that who should responsible for it?Our financial authorities seem to also do not know the open under the condition of regulation, on the question of sovereignty pricing, giddy, no consciousness.
I don't want to frighten the Chinese stock market investors, while writing this article is to China's financial managers to "more than a few strings" in the brain, don't wait for some day China becomes to dismember economic colony by americans reviled!Load history scandal!