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Positive GDP cannot wake up long dollar U.S

By Dale Harrison,2015-07-01 19:36
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Positive GDP cannot wake up long dollar U.S

    Positive GDP cannot wake up long dollar U.S. crude oil

    or spring

    On Tuesday (December 22) in a series of blockbuster economic financial marketsdataReleased,The United StatesIn the third quarter GDP terminal value and PCE price index slightly better than market expectations, but unexpectedly sharp drop in sales of existing homes in the United States,The dollarIs still continuation of the first two days of trading losses and below 50-day moving average, 98 mark in jeopardy.The euro/ usd continues to rebound, refresh 4 high to 1.0984, but the market also has a voice that the currency is on or below the 1.11 build the head and shoulder, long also cannot blind optimistic.In addition, thecommoditiesRebound boost,The Australian dollarHand in hand, new yuan rise.

    U.S. economic data remains uneven The dollar index is upIncreases in interest ratesDon't match the fall after the spell?

    According to a government report released on Tuesday, said the United States in the third quarter, the economic growth of 2%, by boosting consumer spending, the enterprise still poor performance due to weak overseas demand.

    The U.S. department of commerce (DOC), according to data released the annual real GDP in the third quarter final quarter 2.0% growth rate, is expected to grow by 1.9%, the second quarter growth of 3.9%.

    Source: (us GDP growth charts Zerohedge, FX168 financial network)

    According to the report, although growth was revised down slightly, but improve employment and oil prices are still low, make household spending continue to boost demand growth.The United States is in the first half of the average economic growth of 2.3%, 2014 2.4%.

    Final value from the sub-index, GDP was revised down slightly, reflects the American business inventories rose more than previously expected.U.S. consumer spending barely moved, the financial services are to offset the growth of the family to provide services of nonprofit organizations.

    From the point of today's report, consumer spending is strong, confirm the biggest U.S. economic growth engine is still powerful.Reuters, said consumer data better than expected in the third quarter, mainly by the improving labor market, housing prices, increased savings driven, and low inflation also boosted consumption;Consumption accounted for about two thirds of U.S. economic activity, super, as the main driver of GDP growth in the third quarter.

    The Commerce Department also noted that the weak growth overseas and a strong dollar, let us exports continue to face pressure, after contributing to GDP in the second quarter of 0.2%, GDP down 0.3% in the third quarter.As the continued growth of the U.S. economy remains weak and in other areas, the import and export gap will continue to expand in the future.

    Data, Reuters review, according to the United States in the third quarter GDP final value better than expected, shows that economic growth in the third quarter is quite healthy, mainly because the consumer demand growth of 3% is strong, and business spending increases offset the excess inventory pressure;Although American companies are trying to cut inventories, but high inventory will be a liability in the fourth quarter is expected to economic growth.

    TD Securities U.S. interest rate strategist Gennadiy Goldberg said, there are concerns that the consumer can't have been driving GDP growth, and other factors will also need to play a role in the economy, can we truly maintain growth.To this, Goldberg says the United States economic growth is very general, but also enough to supportThe federal reserveContinue to raise interest rates.

    Days after the release of economic data is still good and bad are intermingled, then out of the U.S. in November pending home sales decline than expected, posted the biggest drop in five years, suggesting that the currentThe real estateMarket recovery is losing momentum.

    The national association of realtors (NAR), according to data released in November the NAR seasonally adjusted index of pending home sales month after rate fell 10.5%, an annual rate of 4.76 million units, the forecast of 5.35 million units, this is the biggest drop since July 2010.Revised October sales of previously owned

    homes fell 4.1%, by the month before the value is reduced by 3.4%.Sales of previously owned homes in October at the end value is 5.32 million, before the value is 5.36 million.

    (the U.S. pending home sales month rate charts, source: FX168 business network)

    The Wall Street journal,blog,weibo) comments on the existing home sales in November, according to the United States on November existing-home sales growth fall to the lowest level in 19 months, the main reason is that housing prices rising far faster than residents' wage growth, and inventory tightened;On the other hand, the real estate industry needs to adapt to the new federal regulations about end housing sales, to some extent this inhibition potential buyers to buy houses.

    Released at the same time the United States, however, Richmond, the Fed (Richmond Fed manufacturing index showed that manufacturing index rose sharply in December, the district is far better than expected, but the outlook remains bleak U.S. manufacturing.

    In November, according to the American Richmond fed manufacturing index of + 6, expected to 1, before the value.

    (the Richmond fed manufacturing index, source: FX168 business network)

    , the Wall Street journal review Richmond fed manufacturing index, said in December while the Richmond fed manufacturing index significantly better than expected, but from a macro point of view, the U.S. manufacturing sector outlook remains bleak, announced last week the United States on November industrial output fell 0.6%, refresh the biggest monthly decline since March 2012, November ISM manufacturing PMI also recorded a contraction.

    Days the dollar index last two days of trading losses.The dollar index in the United States in the third quarter GDP released once cut losses after the final value, but after the data of existing homes, the dollar index pared gains after released GDP, hitting a low and below 50-day moving average to 98.01, then again since the lows.

    Source: 5 minutes ($index charts, FX168 business network)

    Bank of tokyo-mitsubishi ufj, BTMU) analyst Lee Hardman days, positions the impact on the market may be more and more big.At the end of the relative flow and kinetic energy rather than the relative basic cope with the effects of the market will increase.During this period the dollar will moderate and transient lower, because the market has been bullish dollar.

    But days out of the U.S. consumer price index does not cause much impact to the dollar.The fed's resolution in real interest rates closer, to achieve the goals of inflation or the dollar more sensitive to inflation report.If inflation remains weak, could prompt the federal reserve interest rates, slowing the dollar to rise further space.

    According to the report, compiled by bloomberg index of the dollar has dropped 1.8% this month, the first fall in August.The dollar index in December or the biggest monthly decline in eight months, investors bet that the federal reserve (Fed) last week to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years later, at least until April 2016 will raise interest rates again.

    AMP Capital Investors, chief investment strategist at Shane Oliver says: "if you noticed that the fed raising interest rates would be gradual, then the dollar's gains may be 20-25% over the past few years we've seen. For now, the dollar's best time has gone."

    Credit Suisse (Credit Suisse) analyst Andrew Garthwaite wrote and said: "from the history that the dollar will fall after the federal reserve to raise interest rates for

    the first time; the first actions in the past five tightening cycle is accompanied by a weaker dollar, after the first three months of a substantial decline of the dollar by 10%."

    However, many investment Banks, including jpmorgan chase and Goldman sachs, is still confident against the dollar.Jpmorgan chase, foreign exchange, commodities and international interest rates research department director John Normand said, said "the fed as expected dollar decision will not affect next year."

    Goldman sachs is more optimistic, predicts the end of 2017 dollar against major currencies will rise about 14%, and that has been to the dollar will be bullish in the second quarter of next year, of dollarsThe poundThe New Zealand dollar, the

    Singapore dollar and t will be higher.

    ANZ bank (ANZ) in Auckland, senior currency strategist at Sam Tuck in the days after the report pointed out that "the dollar is still in a cyclical bull market, but as the monetary policy normalization, the dollar volatility is expected to expand, and gains will be flat."

    Although Atlanta fed chairmanLockeHart (Dennis Lockhart), said the fed's "progressive" to raise interest rates mean that the federal open market committee (FOMC) could raise rates a conference every time, but the previous session, against the euro and dollar weakness factors are reflected in the slow rate hikesThe exchange rateMoves on.

    According to bloomberg, according tofuturesTransaction data compiled, the probability that the fed to raise interest rates in April at about 51%.

    Days after the euro remain strong, the highest reached 1.0984.

    Source: (eur/usd daily chart, DailyFX, FX168 business network)

    However, analyst at DailyFX technology column Ilya Spivak, said the euro/dollar may be below the 1.11 build the head and shoulder.If from technical perspective, the euro/dollar fell below 1.0777 1.0818 support interval (May 27, low and 23.6% Fibonacci ratched adjustment), will open the downlink test 1.0602 (38.2% retracement) downward space.If upward,currency1.0938 pivot for uplink challenge 1.1060 (on December 15, high) provide the opportunity.

    In addition, the above mentioned the head and shoulder pattern need to exchange rate has dropped to below the neck line 1.0777 support to confirm.In addition, because the federal reserve open rate schedule, the market risk preference may will be limited, may stimulate the euro carry trade.Short-term, therefore, we recommend watching.

    Headed by crude oil commodity rally Commodity currencies rose to borrow

    China's central economic work conference concluded on Monday with more attention, will go to leverage, capacity and inventory, cost reduction, short listed as economic work in 2016 five tasks.Supply side of China reform strategy from the "paper" finally landed in actual policy practice, structural reform entering a crucial stage.Market analysts believe that these measures will good commodity industry.

    Boosted by the news, the commodity group counter-offensive, days after the U.S. crude futures edged back up to $36.40 a barrel, brent crude rose to $36.72 a barrel.Overnight cloth oil hit a 11 year low of $36.04 a barrel.Beauty, plate, U.S.

    crude oil futures is brent crude oil futures premium as much as $0.05, for since January 2015 the first.

    5 minutes (American WTI charts, source: FX168 business network)

    The United States senate on Friday, December 18, 65:33 the vote passed the $1.1 trillion for the government, a $680 billion tax cut and remove oil export restrictions.The bill by means of 40 years of crude oil export ban finally lifted.Earlier with Wall Street analysts said the abolition of the ban on short term will be a boost to the U.S. oil demand and WTI crude oil prices rise.

    Continental Resources, inc. (Continental Resources) founder and CEO, the oil tycoon Harold Hamm is expected on Monday, "drop down" this year the price of crude oil will rise next year, because of supply and demand situation is tending to equilibrium.

    Harold Hamm said, "we have seen massive supply appeared on the market growth, up about 3% at an annual rate level, so the market correction soon. Will be revised in 2016 years, we expectThe marketWill occur in the first half of the year."

    Hamm, expects oil prices in the first half of next year is expected to return to $40-50, he believes, brent crude oil and crude oil price will be for us to give up for 40 years of oil the abolition of the ban on exports and narrow.

    He also said that allows manufacturers to export decision will help products find markets in countries with refining capacity, America's overseas merger and acquisition activity refiners will reduce U.S. oil production capacity.

    The global famous investment bank Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) in the latest analysis, points out that warm winter climate is commodity current "the biggest risk".

    Goldman sachs analysts said, "this year in November and December the temperature of Europe and the United States to a higher than the historical average. In Asia, dry and hot climate has been going on for several months.The Pacific Ocean(601099,Stocks!Parts) for rare warm winter, this is believed to be affected by the el nino phenomenon."

    Analysts worry that el nino will give such as cocoa, barley and beans and other agricultural commodities bring the significant influence, will also give energy commodities incur the risk of "more".

    The bank analyst Michael Hinds, points out, "warm winter high inventories will mean energy prices downward risk is much higherAgricultural

    products(000061,Stocks!The risk of) the price upward."

    Hinds, said: "since 2014, the excess supply of serious negative factors such as, high inventories and weak demand have" flood "in most of the commodities, particularly energy class most hurt commodities. In the short term, the distillate oil and crude oil prices are still facing downside risks."

    He said, the warmth of the futures will hit the gas and the demand of heating oil (especially in the United States area), it will add to the unbalance between supply and demand.

    In addition, OPEC (the organisation of the petroleum exporting countries) to maintain high yield to persecute non-opec production strategy does not seem to be working.According to data,RussiaThe crude oil output is not send a rose, a record.

    In November, according to Reuters data, RussiaRossThe beyondSaudi Arabia, became China's largest oil exporter, Russia's third time in this way, it is also a years "beat" Saudi Arabia.

    Figures show that China in November from Russia to buy 949925 barrels of oil a day, and the supply of 886950 barrels/day in Saudi Arabia.

    (Russia through surpassed Saudi Arabia as China's largest oil exporter, source: Zerohedge)

    In Saudi Arabia resolutely maintain production even strategy under duress, Russia's oil production is rising in a steady pace.In 2015, before the Russian oil production has dropped six years in a row.

    (Russian crude oil output change; source: Zerohedge)

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