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By market warms up safe-haven dollar index dropped slightly

By John Weaver,2015-06-19 19:21
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By market warms up safe-haven dollar index dropped slightly

    By market warms up safe-haven dollar index dropped

    slightly

    On Tuesday (December 8) on the market of Europe and the United States central bank message few, focus on the Chinese marketdata, the result of weak Chinese data and low oil prices down again the market risk, currency riskThe dollarPressure drop slightly.On the gold market, the dollar and the stock market dropped sharply boost the safe-haven gold, but in the next weekThe federal reserveBefore the resolution, gold always been pressure to raise interest rates.On the oil market, last week after OPEC not production decision, the excess supply worries always put pressure on the market, although the late API oil inventories to reduce limit prices decline, but oil outlook remains depressed.

    Specific markets, the dollar index fell back slightly, dragged down by market risk aversion boom;The euro against the dollar up slightly, the risk aversion, risk investors to sell assets to buy back euros;Gold prices edged up, dragged down by the dollar and stocks, but the fed to raise interest rates in December expected limited price gains;Oil prices edged down 1%, it touched the low cut losses after 2009, fears of a global market oversupply, API oil inventories to reduce limit losses.

    The dollar index fell back slightly, dragged down by market hedge warming.The weak Chinese data, and low prices make market concerns about the global economic slowdown, low inflation, put pressure on the usd currency risk, and on the day of mixed economic data, the influence on the market is limited.

    China's trade data failed to ease around November fears of a slowdown in China.Specific data show that China's trade surplus in November surplus of $54.1 billion, the expected surplus of $64 billion, before the value of surplus of $61.64 billion.The data shows that China's manufacturing industry to continue under the influence of weak global demand, making the world's second-largest economy and there are some signs of slowing economic growth.Disappointing trade figures show that China's exports in November for the fifth consecutive month of decline.

    Fitch, a rating agency, says that, emerging Asia economic slowdown is largely influenced by the Chinese.Fitch still think that China's economic slowdown will be necessary to achieve more stable growth pattern of a wide range of structural adjustment.

    In addition to the weak Chinese data, crude oil prices lower also put pressure on risk sentiment.The organisation of the petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) failed to agree on yield limit Friday, means that the excess supply will continue to suppress prices.The decision for investors to sell crude oil, and commodity currencies on a green light.

    Commonwealth bank of Australia (CBA) chief currency and rates strategist Richard Grace, points out that the decline in oil prices, will not end soon. Expect oil prices, bond yields, and the goods will be further pressure on the currency, no important before Friday's retail salesThe United StatesData out,

    socommoditiesPrices will lead this week's trading."

    Due to low oil prices may exacerbate global deflation fears, and data on China, there is no help to boost the popularity, the risk is still fragile and the stock under pressure, risk currencies dollar selling.

    The dollar index shows an hour

    The American mixed economic data, the data is very limited impact on the market.The United States, according to the specific data on November the NFIB smes optimism index of 94.8, expectations of 96.4, before the value is 96.1;December IBD U.S. consumer confidence index, which is expected to 47.2 45.1, before the value is 45.5;The JOLTS vacancies in October 5.383 million, expected 5.383 million, former value correction from 5.526 million to 5.534 million.

    Starting from Tuesday, fed officials "silent period" of the monetary policy meeting, so there is no talk of fed officials schedule.

    Prospects for the dollar,ItalyGkionakis unicredit analyst thinks, "investor appetite for more than $is declining, while the fed may be decided at the meeting next weekIncreases in interest rates.Strong November employment data have strengthened expectations the fed will raise interest rates, but since then the dollar fell against most G10 currencies, it is the degree of investors realized the dollar is overvalued, and began to cut long dollar positions.This operation is expected in 2016, but the speed will be slow."

    The euro against the dollar up slightly, the risk aversion, risk investors to sell assets to buy back the euro., as well as the decline in oil prices on the day of the

    Chinese data, makes market concerns about the global low inflation and the impact of slowing economic growth, investors dumped risky assets to buy back the euro.

    The European central bank (ECB)Official comments for resolution last week.The European central bank management committee's in said, the European central bank decision is not based on market expectations, the market's response to the European central bank decision is no surprise.

    fromGermanyThe European central bank management committee of rigidity still think there is no need to loosen policy.Rigidity in Berlin morning news said,The euro zoneFar from sinking into a deflationary spiral, no need to relax because of the refugee crisisThe European UnionBudget guidelines.

    The euro against the dollar figure shows an hour

    On the day of the euro zone economic data in line with expectations, influence on the market is limited.Among them, the euro zone's third quarter GDP quarter month rate at 0.3%, 0.3%, initial value 0.3%;Annual rate at 1.6%, 1.6%, the initial value of 1.6%.

    The FrenchNovember BOF business confidence index, which is expected to 98, 99, before 99.To this, the bank of France to France in the fourth quarter of 2015 GDP growth forecast from 0.4% to 0.3%, the bank said the terrorist attacks of November 13 bring service activities.

    Gold prices edged up, dragged down by the dollar and stocks, but the fed to raise interest rates in December expected limited price gains.Gold prices rose on

    Tuesday, as the dollar dipped and global stock markets fell, but the future of the federal reserve may raise interest rates next week limited gains.

    The spotGold rose 0.3%, to 1073.18 dollars an ounce.Silver fell 0.6%, to $14.14 an ounce.

    Commodity prices fell, the oil market fall is the most significant, hit a nearly seven years, because of the organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) to maintain close to a record high production to defend market share.It also hindered the momentum of the gold market.

    Oil prices fall further could cause worries about deflation, the gold, because gold are normally used to hedge against oil prices caused by inflation.

    Global stock markets fell, affected the trade weak data in China.The dollar index fell 0.2%.U.S. job market continued signs of recovery support the fed meeting rising interest rates in December.

    Spot gold figure shows an hour

    Saxo Bank (Christian blaabjerg) commodity strategy director of Ole Hansen said, "gold investors now can only wait and see, the gold market is still dominated by raising interest rates subject at present. However, before the news finally released, the market is not yet ready to cut exposure on the market."

    Abn amro's commodity strategist Georgette Boele said, "the gold's gains on Tuesday don't last long, because of today's rise is caused by a brief callback low suck buying $boost."

    Barclays on Monday reported that the gold market sentiment is still very negative;Expects gold prices will be lower, warned investors once the gold price fell below $1000 an ounce level, the market will be further selling.

    HSBC analysts said, because HSBC for the silver market in terms of expected future demand for industrial decline, at the same time, expect the fed raising interest rates will still be adding to pressure on the commodity market as a whole, so the silver price expectations long;But the shape of the next year gold will bring certain boost for silver, the silver prospects remain optimistic.

    The Insignia Consultants, chief market analyst at Chintan Karnani said, "the price of gold is between $1060 to $1080 an ounce within the area of volatility. Only when gold break the price range, would appear larger. Momentum is still not conducive to the gold price. After every time the gold price rise, there will be the seller to enter the market."

    On Chinese market, analysts said, although this year China has been a large number of buying gold, but the market worried about the first quarter of next year China's gold demand may be slowing.

    Oil prices edged down 1%, it touched the low cut losses after 2009, fears of a global market oversupply, API oil inventories to reduce limit losses.Crude oilfuturesOn Tuesday, brent crude oil futures fell more than 1%, after falling to nearly seven years low, because of concerns about the global oil producers to produce more oil, have saturated in the battle for market share.Late API crude oil inventory data to reduce support prices, that helped the price cut down that day.

    U.S. crude oil fell $0.14, $37.51 a barrel, after falling to $36.64.Brent crude fell $0.47 to $40.26 a barrel, after hitting a low of $39.81 days.Brent crude oil fell below $40 in early set, touch in February 2009 to its lowest level, continue on Monday fell 6% decline.

    Oil prices pared losses, because of some traders and investors settle bets in the past two days, worry about the future volatility.Crude oil consultant Ritterbusch & Associates, Jim Ritterbusch said, "is expected to short-term price callback, U.S. crude oil may rebound next weekend to $42 area."

    Well-known currency strategist Adam Button said, "on Tuesday, U.S. crude and brent crude oil prices has returned from the dark, from fall to rise, probably because the market out of balance and panic of a symptom, there is no special fundamental message of support."

    U.S. crude oil prices hours figure shows

    Global excess concerns continue to put pressure on oil prices.Although since the summer of 2014 the price of crude oil has greatly dropped by about 60%, but the cartel OPEC decided to keep its output at a higher level.In Friday's OPEC meeting failed to agree on its production ceiling, give up after production to support oil prices, oil prices were to the worst sell-off in summer.U.S. gasoline and heating oil sell-off, with us crude oil hit a low of nearly seven years.

    Sign of reflecting the oil producers are competing for market share, trade sources said, the last two months of the yearSaudi ArabiaArab oil supply to Asia, refining margins boost from strong demand growth, help to Saudi Arabia to defend its market share in the fierce competition environment.

    Industry publication The 7:00 's Report, analysts said, "for now, market fundamentals clearly is in negative state, The reason is that crude oil inventories at close to record levels, while global production is still higher than global demand. In addition, The technical also clearly confirmed The bearish fundamentals, The reason is that futures prices have hit a new low below $38 a barrel."

    The average Energy brokerage Pete Donovan said, "and in the United

    StatesRussiaandMexicoSuch main non-opec production began to present a downward trend, do more crude oil will be hard to have what

    meaning.Fundamentals remain weak, but the problem is the line of the space becomes more limited, the seller can also have more actively."

    Morgan Stanley analyst pointed out that the concerns of the excess supply of crude oil market will continue over the next year, next year, Opec crude oil

    production or will further increase;Once theIranSanctions will be cancelled and the country's crude oil exports will increase;Iran to crude oil output in March next year is expected to increase to 400000 barrels a day, by June next year will again on this foundation an increase of 200000 BPD.

    API to reduce inventory data limits the price drop.American petroleum institute (API), announced after the close on Tuesday the us crude oil inventories last week, and gasoline and distillates inventories.Specific data show that in the week ended December 4th, 1.9 million barrels of crude oil inventories in the United States, to 488 million barrels, expected an increase of 252000 barrels, former value increases 1.6 million barrels of oil.Cushing 614000 barrels of crude oil inventories.In addition, the United States energy information administration (EIA) crude oil inventory data released on Wednesday.

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