The hype is housing slump ulterior motives
Recently, the prices into the social hot spots, unlike in the past, cassandras are institutions that China's house prices will appear bluff to fall.However, after a few days later, the agency that is misunderstood and hastily withdrew their own analysis.Some even predicted that in 2016 China's real estate will collapse.Financial planners Mr Xie even publicly warn broad buyers, prices will plummet by 50% in 2016, don't buy a house in 2016.Some media said "according to the per capita housing area of 30 square meters, 680 million square meters, vacant housing for 220 million people living".Also some media said the real estate to digest the inventory totals about 14.09 billion square meters, to take 10 years.So on, it seems that the future of China's real estate only crash a ending.
For now, the so-called China's house prices to tumble, actually is a hypothesis.But in order to avoid let people see is a hypothesis, some use cases to interpret China's real estate overseas, trying to find out the real estate market law of development and the inevitability of China's real estate slump.This assumption, naive or ulterior motives, mostly bad.Being naive or ulterior motives, for the healthy development of real estate in our country, especially for the economic development of our country are vile indeed.
In the face of house prices, the author is not quite up to send, also not
stand down, but very real, just looking forward to the healthy development of real estate.China's house prices rise and fall of the core factors depending on demand, which means demand prices rise and fall.At present, the urban demand for housing can be divided into rigid demand, improve sexual demand and investment demand, add up these three requirements?We don't calculate, also don't know.But from the national bureau of statistics, statistics of the population and real estate related data analysis, it is possible to find answers to more rational. According to data unearthed by the China statistical yearbook 2011, 1995 years ago, China's new urban population more than 1000 each year.By two 5 years for the unit to calculate the time, from 1985 to 1985, as the first "five years", calculated by average increased by 10 million people a year, and more than 5000, ten thousand people, the urban population born range, age 28, 29 and 30, respectively, 26, 27.If not early marriage, the urban population is now in urgent need married house relocation period, according to the average men and women both as a set of 100 square meters of housing demand calculation, a total of more than 2500 sets, 2.5 billion square meters of housing.From 1991 to 1991 as the second "five years", also for more than 5000 new urban population, this round of the urban population age distribution between 25 to 21 years old, which means that they entered the room to start a family, to live the same stage, although the housing need not born as the
first "five-year" urban population so desperately, but also is imminent. Not I don't know, startled.More than two urban population born "five-year" period, a total of 100 million new people, according to two people, men and women have a house, an average of 100 square meters, need 10 million units, 5 billion square meters of housing.According to the national bureau of statistics show that by the end of October, the national commercial housing sale area of 680 million square meters, including commodity housing sale area of 440 million square meters, the number of housing supply from need is nearly 10 times, thus, real estate, not only there is no left and it is in short supply., of course, as Mr Easy introduction, a researcher at the Chinese academy of social sciences financial research institute, need the same thing, demand is another matter, the so-called "needs", is a desire for some items, while "demand" is to exchange can be realized through the money to pay.Things are likely to get "needs", while others may not get.Residents for housing, although it is necessities of life.Each and every one has a "need" for housing, but housing "needs" into the "requirements", must have the corresponding ability to pay to buy.If two-thirds of the people to "housing needs to be" into "demand for housing", the current housing supply cannot meet demand.Why can the housing sales growth is slow, in part of the region and even a drop in the sales situation?Parts of it doesn't rule out building a temporary excess or local excess, but the main reason is some
hype caused by the housing slump, caused the real estate market, currency wait-and-see mood.
Of course, one might argue that the future only children per couple will have two sets of houses.In fact, this part of the housing for the growth of urbanization rate and digestion.China's urbanization rate now at 55%, while the level of moderately developed countries and regions, the urbanization rate is basically in 85%, the western developed countries urbanization rate at about 95%, even the United States is
97%.Urbanization is an important symbol of national industrialization and modernization, China to realize industrialization and modernization in the future, means that demand will continue to increase.Just as prime minister li keqiang pointed out: "China to achieve modernization will inevitably accompanied with urbanization, the rigid demand for real estate is a long-term."But starting in 1996 an annual increase of urban population more than 2000, of which 1996 born in the year of the urban population has been 20 years old this year, if the average of a set of two people, men and women on average every 100 square meters, 10 million sets and 1 billion square meters.It is obvious that the future housing needs is still huge, which is also huge rigid demand.
Achieve the goal of "home ownership", not only is to achieve the goal of the government, but also should be the healthy development of China's real estate industry is the basic goal, especially the Chinese basic
national conditions, much less determines the house can't become a hype investment products, otherwise the economy is bound to a problem.Now, China's housing since has become investment products, that would not be artificially to hype the housing slump.So once the slump, domino effect will occur, who are not good, is the most direct harm cause citizens have shrunk dramatically, wealth lead to financial risk of the outbreak, the collapse of the relevant industries, leading to a collapse of the whole Chinese economy.Therefore, promoting the healthy development of real estate long-term stable is our only choice, ulterior motives to hype bad housing slump.