Tightening "umbrella trust" impact on the stock
The Shanghai composite index after a slump in January 19, after a few sessions to January 26 again washed up on the level in five years, but on January 27th began to shock.Shanghai and shenzhen two cities a-share index fell fast on the high.There are three reasons that circulating market, it is nearly two days of RMB exchange rate fell sharply, a new low six months;2 it is industrial enterprises above designated size in December 2014, profits at their largest monthly decline since 3 years;Three is the regulators will tighten bank trust "umbrella".
For the RMB exchange rate fell sharply for two days, I have long pointed out that after the European central bank launched QE, issue much due to the euro, the euro in the future a long time is a kind of trend.The depreciation of the euro will inevitably cause the dollar and other currency appreciation.The yuan is no exception.But over the years, with the renminbi currency is pegged to the dollar, if the dollar excessive appreciation, nature also will increase the pressure of RMB exchange rate against the dollar devaluation.But the euro against the dollar devaluation, the devaluation of the renminbi, will not necessarily lead to the yuan's depreciation against the dollar.It also depends on the people's bank of China to the European central bank launched after QE to assess the impact of the international market.The renminbi against the dollar by
about 2% in the past two days, the market began to ask how much the yuan will depreciate?How many international capital flows out of China?It is a bit excessive.
Because, in the context of the current exchange rate of renminbi, basically jump out "of the palm of tathagata" of the people's bank of China.Increase, the people's bank of China to allow the yuan to depreciate amplitude is also within the scope of the existing renminbi exchange rate flexibility, and in this way to test after the European central bank launched QE to the influence of the RMB exchange rate and its influence on China's economy.Unless the people's bank of China to allow the renminbi exchange rate flexibility to further expand, otherwise the RMB exchange rate appreciation or depreciation will not too big, in the existing within the elastic range.
More important is the problem that the current RMB exchange rate, China's central bank is on the two points.One is to increase the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, reduce international hot money using the RMB exchange rate trend of unilateral arbitrage;Two is to accelerate the process of RMB internationalization, improving the status of the renminbi in the international market.Under the two basis points, the RMB exchange rate has been constantly searching for new balance.Or how does a devaluation of the yuan into internationalization.So, because the two days of RMB exchange rate to fall and cause the oscillation of
the A shares, can only say that domestic investors to the current internal mechanism of RMB exchange rate change are not familiar with it. As to the problem of domestic corporate profits decline, according to data released already, industrial enterprises above designated size in December 2014, a 8% drop in profits according to the years, is the largest one-month drop since October 2011.This shows that China's economy, of course, the main motivation of the challenges faced by industrial enterprises.Can say, as long as the periodic adjustment of domestic real estate market continues, domestic excess capacity and the status of the continuing decline of PPI will not change, the Chinese industrial enterprises profits will not be able to have a new start.This will be a big influence on the profits of listed companies.On 27 January, the European and American giant corporate profit growth, also led to the European and American stock market crash.Truth is the same.But the profitability of Chinese companies and Chinese a-share index of its correlation is not big as the European and American market.
For tightening "umbrella" trust, market rumors, early management is stepping up its corresponding regulation.Crazy, because, this round of the stock market is not only related to the margin development too fast, also with the "umbrella trust" excessive expansion of domestic Banks have certain relations.So far, the margin of the domestic scale has reached 1.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of the "umbrella" trust is to reach
the level of $200 billion to $300 billion.So, the market is very sensitive to tighten up "umbrella" trust.
Reports have pointed out that domestic Banks are tightening "umbrella trust".Everbright bank, for example, for example, the class A client with information and the original can do 1:3, now to 1:2. 5.If according to the proportion of such tightening, and in 300 billion the current financing terms, so to leverage up to 75 billion yuan.And the "umbrella" trust may tighten.Such as the Shanghai index at 2400 points of lever is 1:4, now is 1:3, the future may also is 1:2.Here can be both a regulatory requirement, also has the market reflection of commercial
Banks.Because, the stock rose, lower leverage is normal bank.Don't read too much into market.
But also for domestic Banks "umbrella" trust regulation, management early in formulating the related regulations, the market should have this kind of preparation.What's more, trust "umbrella" not only is substantially smaller than margin, and it is also a niche product.In domestic Banks, if the customer does not have a corresponding amount, and can't get financing by the tool.
But, as I already pointed out, the current characteristics of China's A shares, market expectations come fast, go too fast, any change of the market, are easily caused stock market big stir.So, although regulators this trust "umbrella" for Banks tightened on the stock market is not big,
but investors may as well be careful.Investment risk than profits.