Oil prices plunged again, the world will be turned
Dollar interest-rate rise time is more and more close, has been "bullied" $more than a year of commodities, generally rebounded or stop falling trend, because the policy of "boots" is about to fall to the ground.If international oil prices "man", launched a new round of fall.
Oil prices weeks K line graph above: New York, recently to new lows.
Just at that time, the American news: execute the 40 years of oil export bans, is likely to be abolished in the near future.
In October 1973, the fourth Middle East war broke out, in order to strike Israel and its western Allies, the Middle East oil exporters orchestrated the "oil crisis" for the first time, 3 times raised prices.The United States and Europe, under high oil prices have hit a full-blown recession for the first time since world war ii.Soon after, as the largest oil importer, the United States announced the oil "ban", execute until now.
Well, why don't the United States needs the ban?The reason is simple:
1, the United States through the shale oil, shale gas technology revolution, improve the ability of oil and gas production;Gas prices are only one 7 of China's, has realized self-sufficiency;And crude oil output, also basically close to the demand, in recent years has increased exports to neighboring Canada, Mexico.In October this year, the United States announced realized net oil exports to Mexico.Ten years ago, Mexico is the second largest source of oil!
2, the new energy revolution, electric vehicle technology matures, the oil will be less and less important in the future.
3, "graphene battery" will be the last knife up to oil producers: the future of the car charge only a few minutes, can continuous running thousands
of kilometers, the technology is mature.
People in the United States are going to scrap "oil export ban", the inside of the petroleum exporting countries still can't unified pace.First oil Saudi Arabia announced no production costs low, trying to lower oil prices "kill" shale oil companies in the United States.Recently, Saudi Arabia is a hold, once want to production, but not with Iran.So, the end result is the Saudi production, Iran to increase production, international oil prices and the next step.
Many research institutions, international oil prices will fall below $25, 2016.
Below $25 is not terrible, terrible is below, after rebound space is very limited in the future.Oil prices want to back to $60 (more than) a barrel, difficulty is great.
Above: above is the dollar in turn to the Russian ruble, brunei, Malaysia ringgit currency movements in the last two years, according to the three currencies are a sharp depreciation of the producers ($1 can exchange money at increased).Most producers of currency, binding, only a handful of can freely convertible.
Over the past 40 years, control of crude oil, natural gas, not only sitting on huge oil dividends, also has a great influence on the world geopolitics.More often than not, such as Russia's strong huge revenues from oil and gas;Venezuela, Iraq, Iran and Libya's "challenge" from time to time with the United States, and oil and gas resources in backing.As for Saudi Arabia, the united Arab emirates (dubai), rich luxury, brunei, Malaysia also.
Now, their end of the day.
"Oil" $" oil "trillions of convergence, they use the money to the European and American real estate investment, buy fund, or buy luxury goods.Now, this pile of petrodollars melting like an iceberg, will gradually become smaller, until disappear.
America's sovereign wealth fund institute (SWFI), according to data from the world's sovereign wealth fund asset management dimension in the top five countries, there are four national funding sources are dependent on oil exports.Including Norway's government pension fund, the ABU dhabi investment authority, the Saudi Arabian monetary and the Kuwait investment authority.Now, these institutions began to redeem fund, to make up for the domestic fiscal revenue decline.
The disappearance of the "oil", will bring very big influence to global asset prices, could cause waves in the investment market.
In the next 10 years, 20 years, low oil prices will like a dose of "chronic poison", the erosion of oil exporters, the body, put an end to their prosperity, prosperous and powerful, bring their poverty and instability.From dubai to Riyadh, from ABU dhabi to Moscow, those derived from oil power, wealth and glory, will gradually become mottled surfaces.
These towers above: in 20 years, dubai?
This is a classic of human history "system + technology" beat "resource" case, it can bring us a lot of thought.
For China, "the historical decline of oil" is a huge bonus: when China became the world's largest oil importer, when the oil is becoming China's national security "Achilles heel", when it suddenly became less important!
For the United States, after the fall of oil, the Middle East IS not so
important, so they just to "IS the organization of the crisis border of Syria," has been standing aloof attitude, until recently, make big things, just said.Oil the trouble back at home after solving, the United States is becoming more focused on Asia Pacific, focus on China.
For Russia, the decline of oil and gas is a great news.Profound changes to the country future needs, if not, can only be reduced to a position on the second-rate country.
Was about to end of this article, there was an important message.The national development and reform commission announced that: under the background of international oil prices fell sharply, suspend the adjusting domestic refined oil prices, improve product oil pricing mechanism under the new situation, to the society and to ask for some advice.
What you mean?Very simple, price cheap, oil dividends come, countries want more points.In order to stimulate the economy, the government is tax cuts, add to the deficit, the need to increase the new resources, the consumption tax (mainly fuel oil, alcohol and tobacco, luxury, etc.) is an important item.In addition, when oil prices increase fuel tax, can also protect domestic new energy industry, is advantageous to the big city car,
improve air quality.