if the euro will be secondary currency
Europe's financial crisis is essentially a slob requirements under the excessive welfare can't meet the crisis.Related to the country's response to the crisis in Europe is "cut" welfare spending, through fiscal spending to balance the budget, strive to make "sovereign" balance.In front of european-style "idlers economy" there is no essential change, European governments, for the sake of the interests of the election in terms of fiscal expenditure, may also have repeatedly.Especially extend from sovereign debt to commercial financial debts, the degree of the spread of the crisis could be more than outsiders imagine, or outsiders may "imagine" crisis more than previous
expectations.Anyway, now you can't underestimate the depth and breadth of crisis under the system, because it is not only a crisis of monetary union, but also the crisis of "national coalition".If the crisis continued to deepen, not only directly affect the international economy situation, will have direct impact on world politics.
While the European financial crisis is the extension of the U.S. financial crisis, but the United States did not appear the sovereign debt crisis in the financial crisis, the reason is that the world believe that the U.S. economy has the ability to self innovation from the crisis, through technical innovation can achieve economic rebalancing.The recent us, artificial life and early the Obama administration to promote low-carbon
economy, it is the U.S. government wants from low carbon energy revolution and biological revolution back in the economy to the efforts of the leaders.Europe at the beginning of the financial crisis to stir, as the eu's strength of Germany has been slow to act, may be one of the reasons for the crisis to expand.Throughout the European Union countries, both in the United States slow action of crisis broke out, or their Dally behavior when the euro zone crisis, can be regarded as the euro's internal behavior is inconsistent.If we apply the "conspiracy theory", the beginning of this round of financial crisis, could the euro was too oppressive to lift head, especially the European idlers are there the welfare of his, want to monetary union and the United States to play, I'm afraid I will fail at last.
Imagine that at the beginning of the euro, the United States passed the kosovo war to weaken the euro.Now, due to internal problems with the reversed transmission to the outside of the financial crisis, the euro has been cut second-tier
currencies.Looking back to history, in front of the interests of the state, americans will never give up easily historical opportunity, today, that is to expand the extent of the crisis in the European Union, the intention to act independently of Europe back into the United States the dominant system, let the eurozone to bidding against the dollar, thus will the euro "kidnapping".
For the Chinese, it must be particularly interested in the phenomenon.If under pressure from the dollar, the euro is in deep crisis eventually become subservient to the dollar, the yuan will be from the second line of "against" currency become the dollar "against" object directly, especially American politicians in order to meet the demands of the mid-term elections,
intentionally shift contradiction when abroad.
If the appreciation of the renminbi, will have any impact on the domestic economy?First of all, the most direct impact is hot money inflow, according to a public official, now the influx of hot money is not much, about more than $300, if coupled with the
influx of underground, may not be the number.Hot money hoarding in the Chinese market gradually, it is the most direct consequences?The failure of the macro policy.The recent china-us strategic dialogue, the exchange rate of RMB strange to take a back seat without a bilateral dialogue between objects.The author believes that this is not the americans don't want to let the yuan rise, but the use of its comparative advantage in the "innovation" project, the first China national purchasing "national treatment", expand export the commodity positions.
On the back of the sino-us trade deficit, is the blockade of China's high-tech exports, but high prices for export in the name of the low carbon products, the United States will be profitable.Us if progress on carbon trading right, by making China enjoys a "market economy" national treatment at the same time, will appear in China for reducing carbon emissions, and the price is the import of American phenomenon of carbon technology.Therefore, the author expected, on carbon emissions, will be an inevitable issue in the future strategic dialogue, China and the United States the United States once the progress on carbon emissions, will come back to again on the currency exchange rate, increase dollar positions in China, the
appreciation of the renminbi then if become a reality, represented by the dollar's international capital, can save capital goods to China.Both real estate and stock markets, if just appear "adjust" under the macroeconomic regulation and control, international capital inflow will be a better time, huge profit space.As a result, the United States the subtext of the strategic dialogue, is to expand in China commodity market position first, and expanding the scope of the dollar in China, and then use capital to get excess profits.This is, of course, only the author's speculation that don't really appear such result.
Covering, in also not sure to ensure the economy is not a w-shaped trend, China's macro policies have to guarantee the strength and heat, in order to guard against international capital by commodity, currency and capital "combination" to bottom, so both real estate policy and the policy of the capital market, stability is still the overriding task.The adjustment of the macro policy, of course, because worried about inflation, especially climate abnormal agricultural harvest may not be ideal, rising prices are likely to break through 3% policy border.But, in the 30 years of China's macro policy and inflation in the game, I think, as long as there is excess capacity conditions, as long as the
monthly price index at 5%, policy would not have too much
emphasis on "inflation expectations".