Distortion control policy for the creation of an
Distortion in the process of housing market regulation, the policy of the objective reality, is likely to be the main cause of the current property market f be more higher, because it was because of this, led to the distortion of the capital, capital, and the allocation of resources.The more so the more speculators, expect the macroeconomic regulation and control manufacturing band, makes rigid demanders, step empty degree is higher and higher.Prove history without exception, every time the New Deal on time, every time prices on a stage.
In many cities, for example, was forced to implement restrictions on, and linked to the household registration, such a policy, can only make a period of time, the market become a backwater, once let go, will be retaliatory rebound.In the context of the current crackdown, equivalent to the activation of the real estate savings, so much hot money is no way out, only evil industry, the speculation that the, the cost of living in households is higher.The housing policy crackdown and then into the stock market, food, high-grade wine, art, etc., as long as there is the possibility of profit, they at all costs, this is China's current private capital deterrent.As long as on the property market continued to deepen, the current price increases the pressure is very big.
From restrictions on to the property tax, especially the tightening of
monetary policy, China's macroeconomic regulation and control, has entered the era of a "at any cost".In response to the rise in asset prices, the country has raised rates and raising reserve, in fact, such an approach, did not make capital away from the property market speculation, because other places for instead, in more and more, the property market is like a river on the ground.
One-size-fits-all laws and policies, easily lead to a place to have a fever, the follow to take medicine, a hot water industry, other industries followed.
In credit policy, limiting loans to real estate enterprises, however, the move was to curb real estate speculation, has attracted a large number of hot money and industrial capital into the situation.Strong capital, in wenzhou, for example, has from the lower floor which land speculation tinkering around the edges, go deep into the each link in real estate, the macroeconomic regulation and control, the more they happy, acquisition, capital injection bankrupt developers, usury to developers.So the developer fund chain tight monetary policy and the death, won't produce any effect, only can increase the instability of the real estate industry chain.
Media reports said the wenzhou folk idle capital has reached 800 billion yuan, in the past decade, wenzhou's investment rate hovers around 35%, well below the 47% and 67% of the country in zhejiang province.In the
first half of 2010, "not bad money" in people's impression of wenzhou, investment growth in the province tied for the second, 25.7% of the total amount is only 25.7% of hangzhou, shaoxing.So, some people think that, wenzhou is heading for hollowing out.In fact, indeed, large companies have development and mergers and acquisitions, small businesses make land fire house.This is what the author talked about several years ago, the wenzhou capital sources of locusts, namely the industrial capital, after growing, but not persistent, unreal financial capital.These financial capital, is the soft rib of macroeconomic regulation and control, in earn the housing price, quickly.
Surface, such as labor, raw materials, land, resources and environment costs rise, and the RMB appreciation pressure, the superposition of multiple factors, common pushed up the cost of production, enterprise profit space compression, the traditional industry profits as thin as the blade and even unprofitable.
But, in fact, the industrial capital is hollowing out, an important reason is that they fight but credit capital, also in the development of industry, there is no much space, did it.Economist li yining thinks, China at this stage is not a fair competition environment, some areas don't allow private capital to enter, so that private capital was not very good, so all flow into the asset markets.Moreover, even in the private economy or place for private capital to enter, but because the economy is not fair,
treatment is distinct, so it was not guaranteed.But the absence of security, there are quite a number of private capital will flow into the asset markets.
Under the policy of high pressure speculators may catch my breath, but once the policy relaxation, hot money will peak sexually bold hyping the housing market.Under the situation of monetary tightening, China is to have such a group of idle fund is not restricted to the central bank's credit size, credit is elastic, they always for-profit, property speculation to fry, therefore, it is difficult for us to use twisted and suppression policy, monetary policy to round up the capital.
In fact, although we have made the new article 36, however, truly implement, also need a period of time, therefore, to solve the problem of crowded to the housing industry capital, not solve their way out, hard;Besides, all of loans to large state-owned enterprises credit capital into real estate, these folk capital, will also go with the wind, because the profit is the nature of capital.
Therefore, to solve the problem of speculative excess housing, to solve the problem of deformity and the identity of the loan system monopoly, to the folk capital to a larger space, let them have a place to contribute to the home countries.We are looking forward to the management, the use of credit policy and monetary policy to regulate the property market, should be higher, short-term and distorted policy, as far as
possible.Against law, head of policy market eventually will be proved by
history is sad and stupid, the more distorted policy, long-term lead to
state of imbalance, the more it is we don't want to see.