Asian companies lose interest in dollar bonds
The fed will be the first time for many years under the background of interest rates, Asian companies issuing U.S. dollar bonds for a long time at the end of "carnival" is heading for.
This year, the Asian dollar bond issuance is expected to hit a double-digit decline, reverse since recent years, at that time, Asian companies have been using the dollar bonds to get cheap financing, to help their growth.The dollar recently has been on the rise, and this kind of circumstance is likely to continue, the reason is that the fed will be raised benchmark interest rates.In this situation, there are very few bankers and analysts expect the dollar bond issuance will achieve a larger rebound in 2016 years.
"The number of companies issuing U.S. dollar bonds in Asia over the past three years, but this year the circulation of Asian international bond markets are to some extent is disappointed."Goldman sachsGroup of Asia excluding Japan credit capital market director Dominique Julius (Dominique Jooris) said.
Dollar bond issuance sharply lower part of the reason is that Chinese enterprises debtors are more relying on the domestic market to obtain financing, adopt measures to cut interest rates, this is because as the people's bank of China domestic financing cost down.At the same time, some other Asian companies issue bonds interest has weakened, the reason is that under the situation of China's economic growth slowed, these companies cut back on investment spending.
According to data tracker Dealogic, according to data provided by the so far in 2015 Asia excluding Japan new dollar bond issuance of $172.8 billion, compared with the same period last year dropped by 15%.It is three years since Asian dollar debt issuance fell for the first time;In contrast, the circulation of 2014 jumped by 48% year-on-year.
Dealogic data also showed that the dollar so far this year the global emerging market debt issuance also fell, by about 30%.
Since 2012, Asia ex-japan dollar bond issuance has been growing rapidly, it is largely in the meantime American interest rates still remain at very low levels, prompting the development of Chinese enterprises using offshore finance to business.Although have declined this year, compared with 2011 levels, the circulation of dollar-denominated bonds would still be equivalent to more than double at that time, this means that Asian corporate borrowers face a lot of dollars to repay debt.
For Asian companies, pay back the dollar costs are high, it is because the Asian currencies against the dollar decline.In the past four months, the RMB exchange rate fell by 3%.On Wednesday, the people's bank of China set the yuan against the dollar in the middle of the price of its lowest level in more than four years.
The situation is caused as a result, Chinese enterprises are increasing in the domestic bond issuance of cleansing.For example, according to data provider Wind Info, according to data released since the beginning of this year the newly issued yuan-denominated bonds on the market in mainland China jumped by 83%, total hit 21.23 trillion yuan ($3.3 trillion) to record levels.
"We've seen a real substitution effect... in the past often issue dollar bond issuers in the international market is stopped, this is because the dollar/yuan rate is on the rise."Julius said.
China's regulators have been relaxed regulations, which provide the help for the growth of the domestic bond issuance.Last week, the national development and reform commission formally issued a "about simplified corporate bonds strengthen risk prevention according to the procedures and the manner of regulatory reform, relax the corporate-bond issuance requirements, encourages bond to guarantee business, strengthen the intermediary liability and information disclosure, and the collection of small micro enterprise credit, bonds issue is clear and corporate-bond issuance is expected to further accelerate the pace of.
The so-called "panda bonds" (refers to the international multilateral financial institutions in huafa ways of RMB bonds) market is open.In the past few months,HSBC holdings PLCAnd foreign Banks such as standard chartered bank has issued the first onshore bond.Such as South Korea sovereign issuers also is planning to take advantage of this market, and British Columbia, Canada (British Columbia) also said it might be to enter the market.
"In the next few years, China's domestic bond market will be in Asia (debt) on the capital market dominant. The accelerated growth of the market will be more than expected, the issuer will increasingly, coverage will become bigger and bigger."Jp Morgan chaseHead of north Asia debt capital markets Mark Foley, Mark Follett) said.
In addition to outside China, other Asian countries enterprises also have been shedding its dollar bond issuance, after the enterprise has accumulated a large amount of dollar bonds.According to Dealogic, according to data released a south Korean company dollar bond issuance decline is one of the biggest, so far this year has dropped by 29% year-on-year, to $19.75 billion.
From the point of industry, oil industry dollar bonds have fallen sharply in circulation.cnoocandpetrochinaIs Asia's largest state-owned oil giants such as corporate borrowers, but these companies are put its expansion plans, the reason is that energy prices have been falling.These companies are to avoid massive foreign mergers and acquisitions, and in this transaction before asking them to release a large number of U.S. dollar bonds for financing, FranceSociete generaleDebt capital markets and advisory director lauren Morel (Laurent Morel) said.
"We have seen,The real estateAnd leisure company is overseas m&a activities on the market, but compared with mergers and acquisitions activity in the field of natural resources, (the transaction) scale not so big."He said.
In Asia next year, the dollar debt issuance may drop significantly.According to Mizuho Securities (Mizuho Securities Asia), a fixed income analyst marc reed (Mark Reade) make predictions, sovereign bonds and corporate bonds of new circulation will decline by 20%.Many companies and governments have over this year and previous years start issuing bonds before the federal reserve to raise interest rates, he said.But at the same time, some other analysts are predicting $2016 bond issue this year will remain at the similar level.
The Julius of Goldman sachs, points out that the dollar bond issuance reduction is not all bad news, the reason is that the new circulation of relative scarcity will provide support for prices of existing bonds.Since this year, Asia excluding Japan's dollar-denominated bonds has always maintained a good performance, provides 3% of the total return for investors.Over the same period, the benchmark Index of used to track the stock market in Asia in the MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index (MSCI Asia ex Japan Index) fell by 11.7%.