Prospects for the FED to raise interest rates was
suspected Soaring gold dollar abandoned
On Monday (Dec. 21) last weekThe federal reserveDecision to raise interest rates after 25 basis points, the heat of the market for the fed to raise interest rates gradually cool, instead of the fed's rate hike next year in dot matrix diagram given prospects questioned, many analysts say the fed to next yearIncreases in interest ratesFour times, each time to raise interest rates of 25 basis points, or increase the pace slower than planned, putting pressure on such expectationsThe dollarFall back.Pressure on the gold market, after the main gold has downplayed the fed to raise interest rates expected, and gold in short covering and under the background of a weaker dollar rebounded sharply, up more than 1%.
Specific markets, the dollar index dropped to 98.50, the market for the fed to raise interest rates four times next year is expected, and risk appetite fervor, investors pared gains after the fed's decision last week;The euroAgainst the dollar rebounded to 1.09 above, the market thinksThe European central bank (ECB)Short term does not need to be further easing, andSpainPolitical concerns triggered some risk aversion, the euro as a funding currency to buy back;Gold prices rose more than 1%, by the federal reserve to raise interest rates next year uncertain and short-covering;Oil price shocks on Monday trading band limited, global supplier of anxiety and demand uncertainty still put pressure on oil prices.
The dollar index dropped to 98.50, the market for the fed to raise interest rates four times next year is expected, and risk appetite fervor, investors pared gains after the fed's decision last week.Markets that the fed to raise interest rates next year amplitude and speed may be slower than expected.In addition, traders said the foreign exchange market has entered the holiday mode, market volatility will be more limited, there are also concerns into may produce some position changes at the end of the year.
In the attention of the market in the future one year the fed to raise interest rates.Barclays expect the fed to raise interest rates next year not more than 75 basis points, the fed's own forecasts for 100 basis points.According to Reuters, according to a survey of 120 economists expect the fed to raise interest rates again in March next year, but the pace of rate hikes will not be as fast as the fed hinted.
Jpmorgan strategist at Alex Roever and Kimberly Harano transmitting said, "we are cautious outlook for the fed is goodish raising interest rates. Money market by 2016 in January to completely adapt to the fed raising interest rates, changes in interest rates, balance sheets by the end of pressure makes some problems need to be solved in the currency markets."
The United StatesThe oldjinshanThe fed chairman,WilliamsLate the committee is expected to slow to raise interest rates, each meeting may adjust the policy to a certain direction;The fed will not follow any predictable pattern to promote
employment and increase inflation;Williams also expects the unemployment rate will fall to 4.5% by the end of 2016, but to achieve higher inflation, oil prices and the dollar must be stable, but the fed is more focused on the unemployment rate than inflation.Most personal expectations and policy makers think to raise interest rates next year expected, four times to raise interest rates next time without the chairman of the federal reserveyellenAt a conference.
The dollar index shows an hour
Last week after the fed's policy meeting dollar position estimate suggests that the market is still present dollars net long positions.According to Reuters calculations as well as goodsfuturesTrading commission (CFTC) released on Fridaydata, before the federal reserve to raise interest rates, speculators in the week ended on December 15th, cut over $storehouse for the third consecutive week, the week $net long positions fell to lows since early November.It were in line with citigroup and other Banks.The FrenchBNP paribasRecently, according to quantitative indicators for positions in the short term market participants will continue to eliminate more than $.
The FrenchBNP paribas analysts said in the morning, "we expect that will cut more than $storehouse because long-term market participants to the demand of the water in the $$back to build positions by neutralization, these people expected next year, the dollar showed a trend of appreciation."
The chief currency strategist at bank of New York Mellon Simon Derrick said, "I think it is hard to imagine that the dollar will have volatility before the end of the year, but the dollarThe poundOr somecommoditiesRelevant currency rising obviously have some potential.forThe BritishGrowth concerns, and about whether
Britain out ofThe European Union, it is possible to cause most of the late early selling factors."
The U.S. economic data was less than expected also weigh against the dollar, the specific data, according to the United States on November Chicago fed national activity index is 0.30, expectations of 0.10, before the value is 0.17.
The euro against the dollar rebounded to 1.09 above, the markets don't think the European central bank's short-term needs further easing, and cause some risk aversion, Spanish political concerns the euro as a funding currency to buy back.Think the market at present,The euro zoneThe momentum of economic recovery is good, does not need to be further easing measures.In addition to the election results produced in the Spanish financial market inspired some euro safe-haven buyback offer.
The European central bank in the attention of the market further policy direction.Think the market at present, the European central bank does not need further easing in the short term.Said officials in the euro area does not need to be further easing measures.The European central bank management committee Vasiliauskas pointed out that the eurozone's economic situation is not bad, don't need to take further policy stimulus.The European central bank management committee,GermanyCentral bank governor hawkish rigidity, delivered a hawkish statements again on Monday.He believes that in 2016 the euro zone economic recovery should speed up slightly.
The European central bank chief plait Praet day speech on the one hand, in the said the eurozone economy improved, also emphasized the eurozone economy is still tough.Plait, said emerging economies slowing growth brings additional risk, risk is very big for the eurozone, the influence of excess capacity and high unemployment, manufacturing prices also faces downward pressure.Market should not rely on the European central bank alone, euro members in public finances are still have a lot of work needs to be.In view of the risk of slowing growth and other emerging economies, the ECB will always maintain a loose monetary policy when necessary.
Spanish political concerns inspired some funding currency of repurchase.The Spanish prime minister Rajoy (Mariano Rajoy) leading centre-right people's party in Sunday's elections, but far from parliamentary majority.Left-wing parties also failed to receive the seats to form a government, the situation, or will make plan by the country's economic reform.
Chief European economist at Capital Economics, Jonathan Loynes said, "is more uncertain than we would like to see, the good news is that Spain's economic situation is good, but the longer political uncertainty, the market sentiment, in particular, the greater the impact of business and consumer confidence."
The euro against the dollar figure shows an hour
Germany's central bank issued a monthly report that day, to maintain growth outlook in Germany.Monthly report to confirm the German GDP growth is expected in 2015 was 1.7%, 1.8% and 1.7% respectively in the next year or two;In the fourth quarter increased new orders and business confidence rise further indicated that the German manufacturing industry will have to improve, and a huge increase in employment and incomes will continue to support domestic demand, at the end of 2015 the German economic growth is expected to maintain the level of the summer.
Economic data, on the day of Germany and the euro zone's data in line with expectations, influence on the market is limited.Specific data showed that Germany November PPI rate - 0.2%, expected to 0.2%, before the value - 0.4%;At an annual rate of 2.5%, expected - 2.5%, the first value to 3.1%.Eurozone December consumer sentiment - 5.7, expected - 5.9, before the value is 5.9.
Gold prices rose more than 1%, by the federal reserve to raise interest rates next year uncertain and short-covering.Gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday, the pace of the federal reserve to raise interest rates next year uncertainty under the dollar.Oil prices continue to collapse, has fallen to its lowest level since 2004, suppresses the gold price rise in short-term.
The spotGold rose 1.2%, to $1078.49 an ounce, up 1.4% on Friday.Silver rose 1.6%, to $14.29 an ounce, palladium fell 0.4%, to $553, platinum rose 1.5%, to $871.
Enter the last two weeks la this year, is expected to reduce liquidity, because many people will start off the Christmas and New Year holidays.Gold is trying to break after a series of weekly decline trend.U.S. financial markets will be closed early on Thursday, and Friday most global markets will be closed for coincides with Christmas holiday.
Some market participants pointed out that the price of gold rose on Monday part of the reason is that the so-called "short-covering" activity, namely traders and other investors to gold prices will fall to unwind bets in the future.In addition, this transaction can be asset management companies used to come at the end of the year before to adjust its portfolio.
London metal brokers Sharps Pixley Ltd., the chief executive of Ross Norman says, "I think we will see, appear on the market of short-covering rather than new purchases. Since the recent short gold trading has always been one of the busiest trading activities on the market, as investors for nearly a decade since the fed to raise interest rates for the first time responded."
At RBC Capital Markets, precious metals strategist at George Gero said "driven short-covering rally continued, due to the Christmas will reduce session this week, on December 3, hitting $1050 under the double bottom can become a technical factors."
Fall in the dollar, according to data from the Chicago fed, which had low November U.S. economic growthTo theAll speed, gold buying.The federal reserve's decision last week to raise interest rates.
Spot gold figure shows an hour
Although the gold price, but most analysts still see a pale gold in the future.Barclays bankAnalysts said in a report, "on the whole, we the bearish stance on the gold market, and expects to have gold set toward us $1033 to $1043 an ounce of expected further downside target range direction. If the price of gold dropped to $1000 an ounce of below the key psychological level, it will point to fall further to close to the level of $946."
Kitco, senior market analyst Jim Wyckoff said, "recently the sharp drop in oil prices may be lead to metal prices and a wider range of commodity prices on one of the biggest factors. Crude oil prices fell sharply has caused a very negative effect on the commodity market. Monday, while gold looks like to reverse the trend."
Td securities, 18, said gold in early 2016 will continue to pressure for a stronger dollar, could even fall below $1000;But the fed's gradual increases in interest rates or make beauty refers to the peak of next year, gold is still expected to be at the end of next year to $1200 an ounce.Inflation picks up andEmerging marketsAnd the European economic recovery factors may also provide support for it.
Overseas Chinese bank economist Barnabas Gan said that the federal reserve will continue to raise interest rates next year is expected to the end of 2016 or the price down to $950 an ounce.Although the fed to raise interest rates in the 1970 s failed to stop the rally, but now things are different, when inflation is higher;Now, a sharp fall in global prices for raw materials, prices rise 2% below the fed's target, investors almost no need to keep gold as a hedge against rising inflation risks.
As of Friday, the world's largest Gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, Gold holdings increased by 2.98%, to 648.92 tons, the first increase for two months.Last week, the fund's total gold holdings fell to a seven-year low.
Oil price shocks on Monday trading band limited, global supplier of anxiety and demand uncertainty still put pressure on oil prices.U.S. crude oil prices rose slightly, or 0.03%, to $34.74 a barrel.Brent crude fell to $36.35 a barrel, or 1.4%.Brent crude hit a brent oil prices since July 5, 2004, the lowest closing price.
Data showed that increase in the number of active oil drilling platform in the United States last week 17, this means that the market had made the shale oil production in the United States will be a sharp drop in early 2016 won't happen.A are more likely to happen is that the shale oil production need much longer time to decline it.
Anz analysts pointed out that the American oil drilling total fuel oil surplus panic, weigh on oil prices.American oil drilling an increase in the number of implied shale oil producers will continue to maintain the crude oil production, this will exacerbate excess oil concern;According to the production data showed that us oil inventories surged to 491 million barrels, already at high since 1930.
After the us ban on crude oil exports short-term constitutes a certain support to U.S. crude oil, the reason is that relieves the domestic excess supply of crude oil in the United States.However, the United States at the brookings institution, a think-tank, according to research the ban on crude oil exports to international oil market will be very small effect;In global excess supply of crude oil and oil price under the shriveling of the downturn, the U.S. can export crude oil quantity and scope is limited, even to the first quarter of 2017, is expected to the average daily also can only achieve 7.5 100000 barrels of crude oil exports.
U.S. crude oil prices hours figure shows
Forex.com, a senior market analyst Matt Weller, said in a research note, "from the supply side, the shale oil production continues to flood the market, but also a problem concern among traders in sanctions revoked after next year,IranCrude oil is about to enter the market.At the same time, China and Europe's economic growth slowed, climate change brought about by the warm weather around the world and the relatively warm el nino weather condition has led to demand fell."
Now global oversupply problem has become very sharp.British investment bank barclays analyst pointed out that "excess oil daily may overwhelm the available storage capacity. In the 2016 years, oil markets are still expected to is in a state of excess supply, while the inventory growth is expected to slow. In our opinion,onshoreStorage capacity will not be enough to store excess oil."
For future oil future prices.Goldman sachs analyst the personage inside course of study thinks, such as 2016 years, the price of crude oil is likely to hit a $20 a barrel.Some other industry analysts believe that, if further brent oil prices fell $1.50, could trigger the traders and fund managers into the market, pushing the price of crude oil recovered slightly.
A hedge fund managers said, oil price in the first quarter of 2016, or to fall to $25 a barrel.The managers think during march and April, 2016, is expected to Iran or will restore to the global supply of crude oil, the initial supply of material is 400000-500000 barrels a day;Because of this, the first half of next year, global oil supply is expected to add 1.6 million barrels a day, including the oecd supply will be increased by 900000 barrels a day;At the same time, global demand growth will continue to slow, and is expected to decline since around 2020.The above situation will undoubtedly exacerbated the market worries about the excess supply of crude
oil and further depress prices, is expected in the first quarter of next year to oil or
will fall to around $25 a barrel or lower.