Expansion and phenanthrene elder brother how much
impact on the capital market
QFII and the great capacity of RQFII and QDII2 launch, the implications for the a-share market?For the internationalisation of the renminbi would have what effect?Might as well listen to experts point of view. At the beginning of the New Year, all kinds ofChina's capital[3.57 0.28%] news of market reform, which Mr Guo about "in principle all conform to the specifications of institutional investors can participate in the QFII and the RQFII promotion", and hopes that QFII and RQFII based on existing increases the position of 9 or 10 times to market.
"Elder brother" expansion is established strategy
Independent economist, long-term focus on the development of China's capital market gold rock professor said when accepting a reporter to interview, the QFII and RQFII expansion is not an isolated, accidental event, but a series of statements and guo after taking office and measures of inevitable.Gold rock said: "A QFII and RQFII will increase 10 times, leading to A shares soared; an open QDII2, lead to Hong Kong. The language of words is not timely, but as early as June 7, 2012, in the guo" China needs to build A powerful wealth management industry "report, the management may be clearly seen in the treatment of wealth management and the basic train of thought on capital flows. Is the stock market, bond market andfinancialDefined as wealth industry market, at
that timefinancialThe rothschild family Sir Think highly of this paper.While the growth of the wealth management industry must have the involvement of international capital, 'please' thin elder brother (QFII) to "visit" is the inevitable choice.Stocks rose, also suggests that Mr Guo train of thought by the market recognition.From this perspective, 'brother Fidel' expansion represents the future of huge opportunity to the development of China's wealth management industry."
Gold rocks further pointed out: "if the a-share market now value of 23 trillion ~ 24 trillion yuan as A base, 'future' thin elder brother is expected to account for 10% ~ 15%, calculate down, that is, total market capitalization of the ascent to 46.6 trillion ~ 70 trillion yuan!"This is from Mr Guo guo to catch a glimpse of the ideal in the words of market scale of China's stock market in the future.Can be envisioned, "elder brother" big expansion to the mainland market will help a lot, not only on the bond market and other financial market expansion and development will also play a major role.
"Elder brother" expansion is not achieved overnight
Management's attitude and, of courseconceptWith the actual situation of the market between may not be completely consistent.Shanghai jiaotong university, director of the institute for public policy research Gu Jianguang that QFII expansion effect on the a-share market will not appear quickly, and need A long process."On the one hand, QFII
expansion is not achieved overnight, need to open a process. On the other hand, does not mean that after opening overseas investment capital will be too impatient to wait the money into the mainland. Because now there was no obvious recovery of world economy, China's economic dependence on the international economy and strong cases, China's economic dip back up is not very solid. Last December export data have questioned by many foreign institutions, that foreign is very sufficient confidence in China's economic recovery is not". Gu Jianguang also believes that in the a-share market has realized the shorting mechanism, foreign entry will not necessarily promote a-share market quickly.On the contrary, if China's economic fundamentals are not solid, the listed company performance of weak growth, QFII and RQFII probably would heavily short a-shares, make investment into A speculation.It all remains to be seen.After all, the market's overall bullish, there are many factors together.Both need care and support of the policy, such as new stop hair, delisting system perfect, such as introducing overseas strategic investors, the policy will encourage the cumulative effect to the stock market recovery, at the same time also need fundamentals, this is the foundation of be vividly portrayed a big advance.And driven by money alone a bull market is "artificial bull market", "city of leather", comes to go.Damage to investors and the Chinese economy will be greater.
But sun lijian, vice President of the fudan university school of economics thinks, although the "elder brother" expansion nine times, ten times, from the standpoint of domestic investors, is a lot of money, but from the perspective of international capital, the money is not a day.Weak economic recovery in Europe and the international environment, emerging markets are still focus on international capital investment area, and the Chinese market the current low valuation to many international capital has formed a strong appeal.Such as the recent Japanese Mr Abe's government to set up a $50 trillionThe Japanese yenOverseas investment funds, did not say what kind of assets, the money will mainly put in what markets, but China to overseas sovereign-wealth funds and central Banks invest in the mainland capital markets loosen to its mainland stock market opened the door.So in the long term, guo's move to the long-term development of the a-share market will go A long way. Gold rock said, regardless of the future "elder brother" in what form to enter the mainland market, they will than the current retail leading investment groups have more say.Inherent in mainland and represented by funds from the mainland of institutional investors, "elder brother" may also become a voice more institutional investors, because we are on the stock market operation rules let public funds to participate in the management of listed companies have more restrictions, even if the public funds ownership improve cannot affect the listed company
management decisions.But "elder brother" is different, they have the right to participate in the listed company management decision, especially in the full circulation market in the future, "elder brother" will gradually become a relative strength of the investors.That on the one hand, help to improve and improve the decision-making and
management level of a-share listed companies, "elder brother" has the stronger ability of analysis will make fraud of listed companies is becoming more difficult;But on the other hand, "elder brother" expansion will be harder to retail investors and funds to make money. B shares or will have a break
In addition to the "elder brother" expansion, guo speech also pointed out that the mainland investors is also keen through QDII investment in Hong Kong and other overseas market, the securities regulatory commission will optimize the investment structure, and actively prepare for pilot QDII2 related work, finally realizes the private overseas direct investment, at the same time the current B shares now H shares formation mechanism, the securities regulatory commission has set up a joint team is responsible for this matter.Then guo also specially stressed that QDII2 will be restricted to certain qualifications, not all people want to cast can be cast, to control, which mainly has certain investment capacity of high net worth clients.
The Gu Jianguang said so-called QDII2 and then die through-train is
actually the same thing.Only in oneForeign currencyControl state, unregulated, no quota control "through train" is not feasible, and now the QDII2 is controlled through train, than all the through train more and more easy to implement.
Rock is considered of gold QDII2 impact on Hong Kong may not be as big as QFII impact on the a-share market, because the proportion of domestic investment institutions in Hong Kong now is very high, many individual investors to invest Hong Kong also already achieved by free line curve.Put forward at the same time, the problem of QDII2 and QFII mainly balanced state of mind among the people of Hong Kong a gesture, to achieve the balance of currency in China Hong Kong as an offshore RMB centre.
And with the QFII and RQFII and QDII2 two-way open, already become "chicken ribs" B shares may also will put an end to their taking full historical mission."B shares is a freak, because there is no the financing function, it's like to marry a wife to marry is not allowed to have children, make the enterprise in the motivation of B shares listed no longer exists."Gold rock stressed that "B shares reform direction is' A goal, three options', A goal is ultimately to switch off the B shares; three choice is to turn back, and,. Delisting, merged into A shares or transferred to overseas such as Hong Kong main board market. The existence of B share market, to" elder brother "in the a-share market to form grip, so
predictable B shares will soon there will be A break.
RMB internationalization big strides
In addition to the influence of the market, QFII and QDII two-way expansion to relax under the capital account opening and the acceleration of the internationalization of RMB will have significant impact.
Sun lijian thinks, at present, our decision-making departments have strengthened to promote China's RMB internationalization strategy.In this international environment of economic prospects, large capacity RQFII bonuses, formed a huge system through liberalising the renminbi offshore market channels for domestic investment can attract more offshore RMB bonds, and through the offshore market funds flow back to the yuan debt market to increase the income of RMB investment returns, the full range of RMB to go out and backflow mechanism design is a very positive significance to promote the internationalisation of the renminbi.
Gold rocks, points out that the future of China's growth model will also be highly dependent on the excess currency issuance, amount of RMB can't both digestion at home, there are a considerable proportion to leave China in circulation offshore.So in the next decade, the output of the policy is imperative.But in the yuan freely convertible system faces many constraints, under the condition of not fully open capital account,
as long as the link offshore yuan market and RQFII, can form a sizeable free circulation of offshore RMB market, so that the future of RMB internationalization mode will be dominated by offshore yuan. Offshore yuan has created "a coin has two," the fact that due to Asia in the near future is difficult to form a monetary union, offshore RMB will have a relatively neutral, regional monetary attribute will fill a gap in Asian markets."There are more scholars believe that the conditions of the internationalisation of the renminbi is not yet mature, is the main reasons for the free convertibility of the capital account has not been open. If the free convertibility of the international monetary system as the standard, I'm afraid the internationalisation of the renminbi have 5 years also won't achieve; but if the free circulation of offshore RMB as the standard, the internationalisation of the renminbi has begun to take shape, in my opinion, it should be RMB internationalization mode with Chinese characteristics."Jin said rock.