Week of Christmas light market open the dollar index
to fix prices end
Light conversation mode officially opened this week, because on Friday (December 25) is western grand holiday, Christmas message thin, Europe and the United States the main investors in financial markets will be until January 4, will be back from holiday.For many short-term participants, the key question now is:The dollarIndex since mid-october downward revision of the rallyThe marketIs over?Judging from the market positions, the dollar index shows no sign of the downward revision has been finished.
The dollar against major currencies last week uniformly, becauseThe federal reserveWith other major central Banks to raise interest rates make it policy to further differentiation.In the federal reserve opened this month for the first time in nearly a decadeIncreases in interest rates, butThe European central bank (ECB)In the long journey is still in its implementation of easing policy;The bank of JapanNew ETF buying plans to reverse its asset purchase program.
The dollar index is currently hovering on the European central bank resolution day (Dec. 3) after the price movements of 61.8% retracement level near (around 99.25).The next day after the federal reserve announced increases in interest rates (17 December), the dollar index has a small jump on opening the mouth, the gap in 98.59 to 98.61.Technical indicators have different signals, including weak MACD cross but RSI upward trend.Recently it is difficult to see the dollar index to continue.
Short term fundamentals, focus this week: on Tuesday (December 22)The United StatesIn the third quarter GDP final value, on Wednesday (Dec. 23) core PCE price index in November in the United States.
(figure 1: the dollar index figure, me)
However, the dollar index in the medium to longer term remains bullish.From the larger cycle level, in June 2014 to March 2015 rally is only the third wave rally, in the middle of April to October is the fourth wave of consolidation, but in the middle of October is the fifth wave of the rally.
From the marketThe exchange ratePerspective, the investment Banks in early 2016 the dollar index is relatively bullish, and weak after inflation expectations.
(figure 2: the dollar index weekly five wave movement diagram)