The federal reserve to raise interest rates Hard
commodities around long term
Although the fedIncreases in interest ratesExpected since the start of the 2015 crackdowncommoditiesMovements, but analysts said could raise interest rates does not mean that this weekgold、Non-ferrous metalandCrude oilSuch as declines in the
end.The reason is that the commodity market pessimism is also related to other factors, including China's economic growth is slowing, and many varieties of excess supply.The fed is not the only factors led to the current downturn in commodity prices.
"Fish don't worried, non-ferrous bear market is difficult to reverse."There is a market personage points out, given the large industrial products is still in the macro financial environment instability, the weak overall supply and demand and the pessimistic environment of credit risk, is expected to non-ferrous metals such as bear cycle downward move under the situation difficult to reverse, just as any rebound phase correction.
Short fled Commodity declines paused
In the federal reserve to raise interest rates date approaches, more short flight phenomenon appears on the commodities markets, and facilitate crude oil,copperOr fell to stabilizing, or a significant rebound.
Tuesday's New York crude oilfuturesFor a second day rally, the main power comes from short-covering - short take buying to hedge their positions.It also contain the oil prices significantly towards 11-year lows.It hit $34.53 on Monday, it is during the financial crisis hit $32.40 to its lowest level since.
"All eyes are on 11-year lows, but I think, in the oil prices hitting a time those people have initiation buy meaning," a foreign head of risk management agency said, "if oil prices do not make any rebound, all the way down, and below that level, will let the market feel accident."
"Investors buy on dips," BRG brokerage firm in crude oil traders Jeffrey Grossman said that the company is expected to last week fell below $40, brent crude will rebound to the price.
London copper futures market also similar to the crude oil market.In yesterday's copper electronic trading, as investors in the widely expectedThe United StatesBefore raising interest rates to cover short positions, copper hit Wednesday before 1 week low rose slightly.
"The recent bearish market degree is high, but may have to wait until the actual confirmation after the federal reserve to raise interest rates, inhibition of prices will appear after the rebound," analyst at ubs in Melbourne, Lachlan Shaw said.
Yesterday domestic commodity futures price now, overall performance is relatively calm, including base metals all fell slightly, black commodities
differentiation, chemical volatility slightly larger,Oil and greaseGreen fuel in large area.
The long term increases in interest rates is difficult to shake goods
Non-ferrous metals market in recent weeks mostly ignoring other factors influence the range, as investors cautious before the fed's decision."The federal reserve to raise interest rates is a major event, but also all the people waiting for a year."Capital economics commodities economist Simona Gambarini said.
Market expectations, the fed will be announced early in the morning Beijing time 17 December FOMC meeting results.But there are also analysis pointed out that whether or not to raise interest rates, global investors will breathe a sigh of relief.Investors should not only focus on whether to raise interest rates, but also pay close attention to the chairman of the federal reserveyellenOn subsequent rate rhythm expression.Under the global monetary policy easing, expect the fed to raise interest rates next step will be lower than the current market expectations, rates may only once.In addition, the fed's balance sheet shrinkage will be very slow, also won't shrink in a year.
And more analysts believe that no matter what happens this week, metal market pessimism is also related to other factors, including a slowdown in China and many market oversupply.The fed is by no means lead to metal prices the only factor of the current downturn.
Guosen futuresGu Feng Da thinks, from the point of industrial environment, the copper market in a bear market cycle under the "cold", the boom of industry continues to decline, originally the lucrative copper enterprises, some mining companies started to structural production, and smelting and processing small profit in the state of the industry reshuffle reforming, upstream production conduction take a long time, however, and the financial attribute fade under industry social inventory flow pressure, domestic copper terminalsConsumer industriesThe lack of bright spots, wire and cable copper demand "hollow",The real estateWork starts limited growth, pessimistic copper industry environment makes the enterprise have to struggle to save his life.
, he says, look from the futures prices, non-ferrous metal in the low post have a rebound in demand, but the trend reversal will be difficult, though most speculative short of controlThe spotSupply ability, can only through the way of short covering for a profit off, but the color varieties nearly high current low market structure is suggested that the long afternoon partial pessimistic.At present, given the large industrial products is still in the macro financial environment instability, the weak overall supply and demand and the pessimistic environment of credit risk, he expects the non-ferrous metal copper prices downward move under the situation difficult to reverse the bear market cycle, the rally as a phase correction, at the end of the fluctuations or amplified.
But, while copper prices fell this year, many foreign institutional demand for base metals in 2016 remain."We still expect China's demand for commodities under
the influence of the factors will only modest decline, there will be no since the beginning of a sharp drop in price performance indicates the trend," Morgan Stanley said inResearch reportIn the said.
"Other countries economic activity remains strong, commodity trade flows is not affected, but manufacturers are fast rebalancing, in response to low prices, it also suggests that the price of downside risk is limited."The agency said.
Gold and silver or face greater pressure
Unlike of non-ferrous metals and other commodities, in the world's largest economy in the United States to tighten monetary policy, is expected to goldsilverThe two precious metals will face more pressure.
Natixis precious metals analyst at Bernard Dahdah said that by the end of gold prices likely to $1000 an ounce.Since the summer, precious metals investors adopted a response to the turmoil in U.S. interest rates expected.They sell gold and other metals, because the United States a series of strong economic data have pushed up the United States will raise interest rates expected this year.
Sell gold reason is that gold is almost no industrial purposes and cannot provide earnings, so compared with the $interest-bearing asset, such as gold competitiveness is weak.Raising interest rates to boost national debt, usually on gold, so both usually moves.
Silver with gold pace in general.Swiss bank Julius Baer, Switzerland (Julius Baer) is expected, the federal reserve to raise interest rates, the silver will be further down trend, by the end of next year before hitting $13.5 an ounce.
The gold price has fallen 9% since July, silver fell nearly 12%.Analysts said, if the fed to raise interest rates to take a more cautious attitude, gold and silver should play a biggest wave rally.