Global monetary policy differentiation To raise interest
rates again uncertainty
The federal reserveWhen will to take the next step will be subject to inflation.For now, officials say, they have a negative inflation "reasonable confidence".
In the morning, the world's largest economy farewell seven years at zero, officially entered the interest-rate increases.
2008 financial crisis, in order to deal with the worst financial crisis since the great depression in 1930, the fed's former chairmanBen bernanke,Under the leadership of the federal interest rates to zero.After seven years, the fed and through quantitative easing measures to push down long-term interest rates, in an unprecedented and controversial financial means to stimulate the economy.
Seven years later,The United StatesThe economy is in good condition.Economic growth has lasted 78 months, while the unemployment rate has fallen to 5%;On the other side of the scales, some financial people fear by the systemic risks of unconventional policy also did not happen.
"This rate marks the end of this era."The current chairman of the federal reserveyellenOn December 17 at the conference.She said excitedly, raising interest rates move means that the United States in increasing employment, increase income and help millions of americans out of poverty has made considerable progress.
Outside the raising interest rates, the fed said, following the fed will continue to raise interest rates.17 according to the median forecast of fed officials, new prediction, according to officials expected benchmark interest rates will be slightly at the end of 2016 to 1.375%, will rise to 2.375% by the end of 2017, after three years, will reach 3.25%.Which means that next year there will be four times every time 0.25% of raising interest rates, the year after next will also have the same four raising interest rates, in 2018, there will be three or four such increases in interest rates.
Yellen, said the fed's follow-up rate increases will depend on the new economydata, the pace of the normalization of monetary policy will be cautious and gradual, "inflation is still lower than our long-term goal".
For the global economy, however, in the face of the federal reserve for the next three years, not clear plan timetable for raising interest rates, the problem is far more than simple inflation.In Europe and Japan continue to experience deflation,Emerging marketsObviously under the condition of steep decline, the fed's monetary policy shift will bring the global economy, especially emerging economies more pressure.
"I don't see next year, the global economy has any signs of improvement, I think decline will be more serious."The BritishFormer Treasury official told 21st century economic report, "in our view, part of the reason for the current global economic
differentiation from the United States to use quantitative easing convey their problems to the world."
Bank of America merrill lynch global interest rates and currencies research director David Woo told 21st century economic report, five years of interest rates and quantitative easing (qe) makes the United StatesThe dollarTo a minimum, it bring a lot of pressure to global interest rates.17 the G20 deputy ministry of finance minister at the end of the sanya summit, attended many international organizations made it clear that the federal reserve to raise interest rates or bring pressure to emerging market.This is China for the first time after the G20 summit, said one participant, capital flight, currency devaluation, the bond market volatility is concern in emerging economies.
Of the federal reserve
The fed is not set a clear timetable on when to raise interest rates again.Wednesday's decision makers, according to the median forecast of the federal reserve will raise interest rates next year, four times herald the next higher interest rates could be next march.From the past year, however, experience, economic and financial market movements may be easier to forecast the overthrow.
Former federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben Bernanke,) told the Wall Street journal (blog,weibo), for the fed, there is a big uncertainty and this is actually a troubling times.
Even by the federal reserve's median three years is expected to reach 3.25%, given that speed is far slower than officials forecast in September, is also far less than the fed to raise interest rates before the pace.For example, during the period of 2004-2006, the federal reserve has raised 17 consecutive interest rates, the fed officials do not intend to repeat this way of raising interest rates.
When will the fed to take the next step will be subject to inflation.The fed's preference index in more than three years has been below its target of 2%.The bank statement on interest rates on the outlook for inflation concern, said it would "closely monitor" inflation picks up the actual and expected progress toward a goal of 2%.This suggests that the fed will be reluctant to raise interest rates again, unless it sees inflation really go on high.For now, officials say, they have a negative inflation "reasonable confidence".
Many factors are likely to make the fed on hold rate plan.Low inflation, the financial system is facing impact or overseas economic growth is likely to force the fed to delay further rate increases, and may even turn around to cut interest rates.And unintended acceleration economic growth or inflation unexpectedly rebounded, or is the emergence of a new financial market boom may be fed officials more quickly raise borrowing costs.
American international group (AIG), managing director and deputy chief economist MoHengYong (Mo) Henry said, because the rate guidelines emphasize the fed will consider the actual inflation, so next year, the fed may only raised interest rates three times, rather than the median calculated four times.
The global economy of anxiety
Anxiety of the global economy in the federal reserve to raise interest rates on the same day, fitch will have enjoyed the bricsBrazilSovereign debt downgrade to junk.To a record low of $35.53 and oil prices continue to slump.According to the above problem, 17 yellen said, "dynamic" overseas still enough to threaten the stability of the U.S. economy, but have not reached the severity of this summer.Yellen believes that the U.S. economy to be strong enough to compete with regulating these fluctuations.Yellen said, adding that energy prices and the dollar to inflationary implications, suppresses the import prices.Meeting in September, the fed has specifically singled out the risks of China's economic slowdown.
In 17, up to 1 hour and 5 minutes of conference, yellen did not mention any country by name."It proves that the fed think the economy is relatively stable, any single country can influence the United States."MoHengYong said.David Woo said the current global growth is still imbalance, Japan and the group of sevenCanadaMired in recession, and Brazil and in the bricsRussiaThe situation is very worrying.
He said to the 21st century economic report, emerging market leverage is the most worrying problem.Because of America's quantitative easing, emerging countries have to maintain low interest rates in the last few years, and a large amount of borrowing.According to McKinsey's latest research shows that 7 years since the growth in global debt of $57 trillion, up 40%.Before the British Treasury official said the recovery in emerging markets is to return to the financial system of health and the "normalization" of monetary policy.