Focus on the fed's policy-setting meeting 10
decision-making bosses attitude in hand first
The federal reserveIncreases in interest ratesSuper week coming, the whole world is waiting for raising interest rates boots to the ground.The outside world is being held in predicting (The United StatesTime 15-16, 2015) of the meeting will raise interest rates, the fed's policy-setting federal open market committee of 10 members will vote for a what kind of, can from public comments a peek inside.
Out since meeting in October, have the right to vote only nine of the 10 members of publicly speak, always speak less fed governor baowillIs regarded as "centrist", expressed support for raising interest rates since August, unpublished shut againgoodRate of speech.
Nine members, in addition to the prudent "dove" Neil tarullo and Lael Brainard, have made it clear that should raise interest rates.In the last meeting, although 10 members and decided not to raise interest rates, but most of the members agree to raise rates this year.
Richmond fed President Jeffrey lacker, a man is like a team, and always stick to "rate" point of view, and in September and October meeting voted "no" vote, but now he is not a person in a fight.
However, though there are seven people support raising interest rates, but still views vary.
Among them, in order toyellenRepresented by "rather than later" partial "hawk", emphasize the monetary policy of hysteresis, think long-term low interest rates will encourage excessive risk-taking.And the fed two, three, Derek fisher, vice President of the federal reserve, the New York fed President William Dudley think employment rates and inflation reached a prerequisite and that raising interest rates.
Chicago fed President Charles Evans, Atlanta fed President of the United StatesLockeHart is "dove", support to raise interest rates, but rates that path is more important than the rate of time and Lockhart think dot figure is likely to be the best indicator of expected future path.
The following for the nine members of the public comment below:
Die-hard "raising interest rates sent" : Richmond fed President Jeffrey Lacker (Jeffrey Lacker)
Richmond fed President Jeffrey Lacker (Jeffrey Lacker) has been the core of "raising interest rates, and also in September and October meeting only kept a" rate "view of officials.
On November 18, he CNBC interview, said the fed to raise interest rates reason is very strong, because of the improvement of the U.S. job market is significant.He future inflation is expected to stabilize near 2%, and that consumer spending is
strong.He thinks the fed decided to postpone raising rates in September, is to the global economic situation, and said there was no see evidence of low interest rates lead to financial bubbles.
Interest rates right: "the New York fed President William Dudley (William Dudley), Derek fisher, vice President of the federal reserve (Stanley Fischer)
Fisher, vice President of the federal reserve, said on November 19, the fed is doing the best we can to avoid surprised the market and government.
November 20, the three characters of the New York federal reserve bank President William Dudley (William Dudley) speech at Hofstra university, said the U.S. economy is in good situation, the economy next year will also can also.In the near future, the American economy could reach conditions needed for the fed to raise interest rates.Hope in the next a very short period of time, the fed can have confidence in inflation to 2% of the target.Expected inflation and labor market conditions can soon achieve the prerequisite for raising interest rates, is reasonable.
"Interest rates rather than later:" the fed chairman Yellen (Janet Yellen), and the oldjinshanThe fed chairman,John?Williams;John Williams；
Fed chairman yellen on December 3, in the United States congressional testimony reiterated that the U.S. job market is still in, to give more confidence to the inflation.She thought the postpone raising rates could lead to inflation above target and disrupt the tightening cycle.This speech and yellen on December 2 in the economic club of Washington speech content.After the meeting in October "in general, from the economic and financialdataComply with the expected 'Labour market continue to improve."
December 3, John Williams also said that the federal reserve to raise interest rates sooner rather than later, waiting for too long, I'm afraid on interest rates will cause the risk of inflation in the miss, to raise interest rates in advance to allow the fed to slow and gradually tightening monetary policy.He pointed out that the U.S. economy still needs some easing, but you can't always implement measures to lower interest rates.
, yellen also on November 12, September 24, emphasized the hysteresis of monetary policy, said "if the delay time is too long to start raising interest rates, the federal reserve is likely to eventually have to tighten policy, suddenly forcefully prevent economic significantly beyond the two goals."The sudden tightening is likely to disrupt the financial markets, even inadvertently the economy into recession.In addition, long-term to maintain the federal funds rate at current levels, can also encourage excessive risk-taking, undermining the financial stability."
Slow path "dove" : Chicago fed President Charles Evans (Charles Evans), Atlanta fed President Dennis Lockhart (Dennis Lockhart)
On December 1, Charles Evans said, has always been his support don't early to raise interest rates.For two weeks after the FOMC meeting feel nervous.He thought the first time is less important than interest rates.The fed must strongly and
effectively convey to the public interest rates is a sign of slow.If you don't do this, then the fed will face the risk of wrong decision.
Evans even worried that the fed raising interest rates, however, was a mistake.There is a possibility: the fed wrongly estimated the degree to which the American economy strong, high inflation expectations for the future.To boost the economy, at the appointed time may had to once again cut interest rates to near zero, even unconventional monetary policy tools, such as large-scale asset purchases to stimulate the economy.
So, Evans says the fed must act very slowly, at the end of 2016, the benchmark interest rate should be maintained at the levels of less than 1%.Evans thinks, meeting in December, the fed should be clear in this paper, the future will be slow to raise interest rates.Similarly, Lockhart on December 7, CNBC interview, points out that when once interest rates start, he expected the federal reserve will use a more gradual path.Every step of the gradual path action, however, will be controversial in financial markets.
Lockhart think dot figure (dot pot) is probably the best indicator of expected future path.For him, the path of the "progressive" means that not every meeting will raise interest rates.He believes the current rate condition is very satisfying.
"Dove" caution: fed governor Brainard (Lael Brainard), federal reserve governor Daniel Tarullo
November 4, brainard, points out that the improvement of the U.S. job market is very stable, some aspects of the outlook is encouraging, the economy of the idle less, but still save some of the weak but progress;In addition, some core inflation below target, inflation compensation index fell.Brainard also said that China's slowdown has had a notable upstream;In addition, the dollar constitute a drag on the us economy.
On November 23, federal reserve governor Daniel Tarullo said that inflation has great uncertainty, should wait for more information to understand the inflation trend.Tarullo has not clear on whether to raise interest rates in December, said interest rates is more important than time.
Before the October meeting, the two members has publicly opposed to raising interest rates this year.