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How to face the real estate stock crisis

By Gregory Edwards,2015-02-11 22:36
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How to face the real estate stock crisis

    How to face the real estate stock crisis;

    Since July 2014, "to stock" instead of "control" house prices become a new topic in the housing market, housing policy all around "to stock".Up to now, can take, and help speed up inventory to measures, basically all released.Since this year, housing sales situation is good, but October data showed that not only alleviate housing inventory pressure, but deteriorated.

    According to the bureau of statistics released on November this year 1 ~ 10 month property data, by the end of October, the national commercial housing sale area of 686.32 million square meters, 21.22 million square meters, more than the end of September, homes for sale, an increase of 11.8 million square meters of area, to an all-time high.For sale of real estate in our country area has been growing since 2011, the national for sale at the end of 2011 covers an area of 272 million square meters, 2012, 2013, 2014 and October 2015 increased to 365 million, 493 million, 622 million, and 493 million square meters, for sale area/year sales area ratio rising from 25% in 2011 to 53% in October 2015.

    It is worth mentioning that the current statistics is still dominant inventory, which has led to booking card but unsold part, actually there is a huge shadow inventory.From the accounting point of view, the housing inventory should be divided into the group, which have not been

    built inventory (raw material inventory), the reserve land developers, construction of unsold inventory (semi-finished products inventory), namely in the construction of state but did not obtain pre-sale permit inventory, and unsold inventory of speaking in front of the "big three".According to the density, citic securities, the national bureau of statistics released by the inventory of 680 million square meters, plus the booking approved but not yet sales of 700 million square meters, 1.38 billion square meters, with 7.1 billion square meters has batch did not build inventory and 5.61 billion square meters of construction of unsold inventory, wide caliber "big three" to digest inventory total size is about 14.09 billion square meters.

    Although since this year real estate sales is apparently recovered, 1 ~ 10 month national commercial housing sales area increases by 7.2%, the sales growth of 14.9%, but our country real estate for sale area is still in the growing condition, investment over sales, the condition of the real estate supply exceeds demand and not for sales.

    As the national economy pillar industry, the real estate market high inventory is not only the pain points of macroeconomic growth, may also bring the systemic risk of financial system, as a result, high inventory, to go.Can say, the principal contradiction of the real estate market has evolved from previous years focused on the housing bubble to supply bubble.Supply bubble harm is very big, not only affect the healthy

    development of the industry, if processes is not good is also likely to endanger the economic security and social stability.The current property market to stock industry and even the national economy has become an important task.The central leadership attaches great importance to.Since October 23, policymakers successively in different situations when it comes to real estate, and deliver the clear signal "to stock".On October 23, li keqiang, prime minister, speaking in the central party school, "ever rely on real estate for a long time, we go to inventory also not solve the problem."On November 10, xi jinping in the conference, the central finance leading group (left), chairman of the "to resolve real estate stocks, and promote the real estate industry sustainable development." How to inventory?From over the years, the control effect of stimulating demand, it is difficult to curb demand;It is easy to stimulate supply but hard to curb supply.To inventory must be the same as in the two aspects of supply and demand to exert oneself to do, not trying to digest inventory, on the one hand, on the other hand is also a large number of land, land to inventory forever not achieve them.

    On the demand level, from the medium-term and short-term strategy to eyes.

    From short-term policy, you need four sorts of measures: one is the current relatively loose monetary policy, interest rate cut, cut, there has been a down-payment requirement in the future is still lower down the

    space;2 it is second-hand transaction of the business tax should be canceled, a moratorium on the real estate tax legislation, deed tax breaks of space, the first mortgage interest is worth of personal income tax;Three is an accommodative monetary policy, continue to drop rate;Four is turn shantytowns into new housing areas relocation allowance is given priority to with monetary, physical is complementary, increasing monetary compensation ratio, promote the relocated people directly buy commercial housing.

    The medium term, "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" China will speed up the transformation and upgrading of urban and rural planning.At present, China's urbanization rate has reached 54.77%, according to the new target of urbanization, the urbanization rate will exceed 60% by 2020, means more rural population will be transferred to the city.New type of urbanization to achieve 100 million agricultural transfer of population and the population of permanent residents in other towns, so the household registration system reform or will drive the housing consumption, will go to the inventory of real estate is good for a long time.And with the second child policy officially open, the market demand for housing is expected to further strengthen, improve sexual needs will also be more.Farmers into the city can't settle, buyers' weak, will always in a sense of drift.Some local governments have to purchase and settled in, the deed tax breaks and subsidies policy, to

    promote the migrant workers to purchase homes, to live and work in peace and contentment has a positive effect, but also to the implementation of the urbanization.

    On the supply level, is mainly the government's land policy.In our country, the real estate is not a fully market-oriented industry, because the source of real estate land supply is in the nature of monopoly.As the only land supplier, the influence of the local government to the real estate industry is very big.To the inventory, therefore, also want to play a key role of local government, strictly control the scale of land transfer.If it can't do that, to the inventory could be the slogan, even may continue to increase. Look from the national housing market as a whole, the early to inventory the effect is not obvious, mainly three or four lines and the Midwest urban problems.These areas have been dependent on land finance, previously a lot of land, is a new focus, inventory volume is larger, and unbalanced economic development, housing investment value is not high, so a series of inventory policy effective slow, even effect is small.And the eastern coastal cities in the future, a second-tier cities to increase the supply of land and make reasonable adjustment to avoid the "land Kings", allows businesses to have a stable long term forecast.While three or four line city should limit the supply of land, focusing on inventory digestion, should perfect the commercial and industrial facilities, improve the occupancy rate, avoid the "new" a

"ghost town".

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