The United States formally entered the interest-rate
increases The global economy is headed
After nearly 10 years,The United StatesFinally enter theIncreases in interest ratesCycle.Than expected rate itself, the market is more need to focus on 2016 uncertainties.
16, local time, the federal reserve released the latest federal open market committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, announced that the federal funds rate rise by 25 basis points to 0.25% ~ 0.5% range.
Because the message has been fully digested, the U.S. stock market stable, up close.And the fed follow-up will be how to grasp the rhythm of further rate increases, become the focus of market attention.At the same time, the world's major financial markets are closely watching the fed to raise interest rates to external influence.
A number of economists and investment, he says, is for China and global market, in 2016 is more important than the rate itself is the rising rates of rhythm, the federal reserve to raise interest rates, the potential impact on other economies, as wellcommoditiesFinancial markets such as the long term.
The United States to raise interest rates next year a few times?
The fed chairman,yellen16, said at a news conference to raise interest rates conditions have been met, "(the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%) of the Labour market recovery is likely to gradually push inflation, if too late to raise interest rates or will cause the fed in the future to take a more radical way of raising interest rates to avoid overheating, this may also cause the economy back into recession."
To enter the cycle of rhythm, yellen said the subsequent steps will be depending on the economic data, the pace of the normalization of monetary policy will be cautious and gradual, but is not necessarily to propulsion machinery, uniform speed.If disappointing economic development, the fed will implement a more relaxed monetary policy.
The fed said in a statement, the "progressive" raise the level of interest rates.The FOMC average forecast interest rates will reach 1.4% by the end of 2016, if according to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the time of calculation, this means that there will be four times to raise interest rates next year.
But many economists believe the fed will not soon after raising interest rates for the first time a second rate increases.
The former fed chief economist stockton (DavidStockton) said that inflation is unlikely to have obvious improvement in the coming months, the fed's next interest rates might have to wait until April 2016 or 6 months.
Morgan StanleyChina fortune securitiesChief economist Steven zhang told China business news, for the second time to raise interest rates to be much less quickly, because the fed also has to observe the effects of interest rates, the direct consequences of raising interest rates is driving the dollar continues to rise, and rise as a result of exports to the United States and inflation have a negative impact.
"Even though the fed's interest rate lattice figure is expected by the end of next year's federal funds rate to 1.375%, 4 times implied rate of space (perhaps once every quarter). But the fed also reiterated the path of future increases in interest rates is" gradual "and" data - dependent "(gradual and rely on the economic data). We think the fed's second rate no earlier than June of next year, after the third and fourth quarters of each once, raising interest rates three times throughout the year, at the end of this year could be as high as 1.125%. And will add 100 basis points to 2.125% in 2017."Steven zhang told reporters.
Western asset management, an analyst at baylor (JohnL. Bellows) is to analyze the "first financial daily" said: "we expect the fed would raise interest rates will be more slow, in the first quarter of 2016, or won't raise interest rates. It doesn't want policy too transparent, so the best way is to avoid mechanical rate path (i.e., raise interest rates by 25 basis points per quarter)."
inAlan greenspanEra, the fed is famous for its "ambiguity", greenspan said, "if you think you understand what I say, then you must listen to wrong."Industry has a view that despite the current fed expressed strong willingness to strengthen communication and market, but excessive transparent or will backfire.As stockton said, the fed does not want to let the thought to raise interest rates path, there are stereotypes.
For future increases in interest rates on the basis of rhythm, Steven zhang told reporters that the federal reserve to observe whether America's unemployment rate will continue to fall, whether inflation will continue to rise modestly.
Stockton said, although the job market rate conditions, but inflation has not reached the fed's target, therefore increases the rhythm will be more depends on the change of inflation in the future.Too fast to raise interest rates to economic risk will be bigger than the too slow to raise interest rates.
How to influence the world economy?
This year, the fed said in a statement on the 16th, since the U.S. job market, there is reason to believe that inflation will provide 2% of the medium-term goal.Considering the economic outlook and the existing policies need to a period of time to affect the future state of the economy, the federal reserve's decision to start raising interest rates now.
Yellen said in the conference, the global economic risks remain, but the us economy is strong.Decision reflects the fed's confidence in the American economy.
On Wall Street, it seems, because raising interest rates expected fully, the market tend to read the rate for the U.S. economy to the proof of that.American cartoon, Keith bliss, senior vice President (KeithBliss) also said that if the fed to start raising interest rates in the meeting process, the stock market will be facing downward pressure.
As for the fed to raise interest rates to the potential impact on other economies, many analysts expect the developed market impact may not be too big, need to focus on emerging economies.
JapanMarubeni shosha group, says ChengYuLin, head of China market sales department that is long-term focused on and to Japan's financial institutions and
markets the fed to raise interest rates, already have a mental preparation.The two countries market depth fusion, Japanese investment enterprise quantity and amount in the United States is more, the appropriate rate also good Japanese demand growth in the economy.
European analysts also believe that the local market is fully digest the fed to raise interest rates expected, rates should not be seen as bad for global stock markets, because it's a sign that the U.S. and global economic confidence.
But for many emerging and developing economies, the federal reserve started to raise interest rates process may cause the dilemma of monetary policy, the dollar international capital outflows, resulting in a shock.
IndiaThink-tank observers foundation researcher, mohan guruswamy, a vast, said India had to raise interest rates against the dollar made adequate preparation, however, may still be affected, the Indian rupee against the dollar exchange rate may continue to fall, India will use some of the reserves to compressive strength.
BrazilSt Paul ince pearlSchool of business,Economics professor of mas argues that although the market is fully digest the expected the fed to raise interest rates, but when interest rates really comes, the market will have a certain pessimism.For the current face political scandal, high inflation and a fall in commodity prices for Brazil's economy, the federal reserve to raise interest rates is a bad news.
As for China, experts generally believe that the impact of the federal reserve to raise interest rates should be limited.American international group, managing director and deputy chief economist MoHengYong said that the federal reserve to raise interest rates suggests that the U.S. economic recovery is moderate, it is good to emerging economies' exports, the United States is China's largest export market, accounting for 18% of the total amount of China's exports.
For RMB exchange rate movements, experts generally believe that China's trade surplus health, abundant reserves, as well as the international monetary fund (IMF) has recently announced RMB into Special Drawing Rights (SDRS) basket, ensure the RMB exchange rate stable after the federal reserve to raise interest rates.
"The future of the RMB exchange rate may be into a gray area, it can be a range of state. But the range of central where? The more at a reference to a basket of currencies, but it is not only determined by a basket of currencies. Upper and lower boundary may be master in the hands of the central bank, the bank will according to market supply and demand."China merchants securities(600999,Stocks!), research director at the macro Xie Yaxuan said.
Where the financial markets.
If the fed still maintain a loose stance after raising interest rates for the first time, so the future change current assets due to investment strategy, is at the beginning of the real crunch substance level, in the U.S. and global liquidity will have a significant impact.
Yellen said that in the future the fed will gradually shrink their balance sheets to a normal level, so as to effectively manage monetary policy framework.But she also said: "the federal reserve continues to explore long-term framework, the current is still not sure whether the future size of the balance sheet."
Steven zhang said that the fed's balance sheet in the first round of quantitative easing (motivation for QE1) before the launch of less than $1 trillion, but at the end of the third last October, has soared to $4.4 trillion.Given the federal reserve also maintain to reinvest maturing assets more long-term assets, mainly Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities) strategy, so the fed's balance sheet does not shrink.
Hu yifan, chief China economist at ubs wealth said: "in the process of raising interest rates, the fed could use reverse repurchase way slowly shrink table, and will give priority to with wait-and-see attitude, if the table for the market impact, will continue."
Contract in market participants focused on the fed's balance sheet, the speed of the foreign exchange market and the trend of commodity market is increasingly clear.
Our reporter learned from some currency traders, after the fed started raising interest rates process is expected the dollar index is expected to rise to 110 levels.Now, the dollar index hovered around in 100.However, chief economist, and asset Xu Xiaoqing thinks, the dollar continued to be strong not nailing on board, the European central bank easing may reverse the dollar.
"Dollar twice rapid increase occurred in the central bank to strengthen loose... the ECB loose strength less than expected in December of this year, the dollar index plunged more than 2%. These characteristics show that the main driving force of rising dollar from the European central bank easing, especially a negative interest rate policy."Xu Xiaoqing said.
In addition, because in the past year the dollar higher, with the global economic slowdown in demand, commodity market record low.While the mainstream view is expected, in 2016 is still difficult to reverse the trend.
Many commodities analyst said that in 2016 seems to be also unable to see the hope of recovering commodity prices, in addition to the federal reserve to raise interest rates, the global economic slowdown and deflation clouded, slowing demand are still pessimistic reason for China.The IMF expects, compared with 2012 ~ 2014, commodity exporters in 2015 ~ 2017 annual economic growth could fall by 1%.