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Results from Globe poll (doc)

By Luis Hunt,2014-06-15 22:22
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Results from Globe poll (doc)

    Boston Globe Poll #32

    MA 2012 Senate Election

    Prepared by:

    Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.

    The Survey Center

    University of New Hampshire

    March 29, 2012

    ContentsExecutive SummaryATechnical Report1Questionnaire2

    Data Tables15

    The Boston Globe Poll

    MA 2012 Senate Election

    Conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center

    March, 2012

    Executive Summary

    I.Presidential Election

    Barack Obama has strong approval ratings among MA voters – 56% say they approve of the job he is doing as president, 39% disapprove, and 5% are neutral. A 46% approval rating is generally seen as the level needed for reelection and Obama well exceeds this.

    a.Democrats (89%), even moderate to conservative Democrats (82%), liberals, poor, and minorities

    give Obama his highest approval ratings.

    b.Republicans are most likely to disapprove (87%) and 52% of independents disapprove; residents

    of southeastern MA, Cape & Islands are more likely to disapprove.

    Obama also enjoys high favorability ratings – 59% have a favorable opinion of Obama, 35% have an unfavorable opinion of him and 6% are neutral or don’t know.

    a.Obama’s favorability ratings have slowly increased over the past two years.

    b.Democrats, liberals, minorities, low income, people with post graduate educations, and people living

    inside 128 give Obama his highest favorability ratings.

    c.Republicans, conservatives, middle income residents, and residents of southeastern MA, Cape & Islands

    are most likely to have an unfavorable opinion of Obama.

    Mitt Romney is viewed favorably by 42% of MA voters, 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 11% are neutral or don’t know.

    a.Republicans, conservatives and residents of southeastern MA, Cape & Islands are most likely to have

    favorable opinions of Romney.

    b.Democrats, liberals, and minorities give Romney his lowest favorability ratings.In a matchup between Romney and Obama, 49% of MA voters say they will vote for Obama, 33% will vote for Romney, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 16% are undecided.

    a.51% of voters say they have definitely decided who they will vote for, 23% are leaning toward a

    candidate, and 26% are still undecided. Among those who have definitely decided, 69% say they will

    vote for Obama.

    b.Republicans and conservatives are most likely to vote for Romney.

    c.Democrats, liberals, and minorities give Romney his lowest favorability ratings.

    Presidential Candidate Favorability Ratings

    FavorableNeutralUnfavorableDon’t KnowNet(N)

    Obama (Mar. ‘12) - LV59%4%35%2%+24%(542)

    Obama (Aug. ’11)54%4%39%3%+15%(493)

    Obama (Sept. ’10)56%6%37%1%+19%(520)

    Obama (June ’10)54%4%41%1%+13%(557)

    Romney (Mar. ’12) – LV42%8%47%3%-4%(542)

    Romney (October ’06)34%10%54%2%-20%(581)

    Romney (September ’06)40%10%48%2%-8%(521)

    Romney (March ’06)49%8%41%1%+8%(510)

    Romney (August ’05)50%8%41%2%+9%(402)

    Romney (March ’05)53%7%38%2%+15%(434)

    3

II.Senate Election

    The Scott Brown - Elizabeth Warren race is one of the closest watched in the country and one of the

    few in which Democrats have a very good chance of gaining a seat.

    Both Brown and Warren are popular candidates

    Brown is remarkably popular for a Republican and Warren is also well liked for a newcomer to MA

    politics.

    No big split between liberal and moderate/conservative Democrats yet, but there are hints of it.

    Very high percentage of voters not decided – the race is wide open.

    Currently, 54% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Brown, 29% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 10% are neutral and 7% don’t know enough about him to say. Brown’s net favorability rating is +25%.

    a.Republicans, conservatives and residents of southeastern MA, Cape & Islands are most likely to have

    favorable opinions of Brown.

    b.Democrats and liberals give Brown his lowest favorability ratings.

    c.Moderate/conservative Democrats are split in their views of Brown – 39% have a favorable opinion of

    him and 39% have an unfavorable opinion.

    d.Minorities are also split in their views of Brown – 39% have a favorable opinion of him and 35% have an

    unfavorable opinion.

    Warren is not as well-known as Brown, but is well liked – 47% have a favorable opinion of Warren, 23% have an unfavorable opinion, 6% are neutral and 25% don’t know enough about her to say. Warren’s net favorability rating is +24%.

    a.Democrats, liberals, upper class voters, and voters with post-graduate educations give Warren her highest

    favorability ratings.

    b.Republicans and conservatives are most likely to have an unfavorable opinion of Warren.Marisa De Franco is essentially unknown -- 5% have a favorable opinion of De Franco, 4% have an unfavorable opinion, 8% are neutral and 82% don’t know enough about her to say.

    Favorability Ratings

    FavorableNeutralUnfavorableDon’t KnowNet(N)

    Brown Mar. ’12) – LV54%10%29%7%+25%(542)

    Brown (Aug. ’11)49%8%26%17%+23%(493)

    Brown (Sept. ’10)58%10%21%11%+37%(518)

    Brown (June ’10)55%13%18%14%+37%(558)

    Brown (Jan. ’10) **44%7%25%23%+19%(551)

    De Franco (Mar. ’12) -- LV5%8%4%82%+1%(542)

    Warren (Mar. ’12) – LV47%6%23%25%+24%(542)

    Warren (Aug ’11)23%4%12%60%+12%(493)

    ** Likely 2010 Special Senate Election Voters

    Looking to the November election, most voters have not made up their minds who they will vote for – 45% say they have definitely decided who they will vote for, 13% are leaning to a candidate, and 42% say they are undecided. Among voters who say they have definitely decided, Brown holds a slim 51% to 48% lead. Less decided voters are equally split, meaning this is a race that is definitely up for grabs.Among likely voters, 37% say they will vote for Brown, 35% say they will vote for Warren, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 26% are undecided.

    4

    a.Support generally breaks down along party lines – Democrats (63%) and liberals (68%) are most likely to

    support Warren while Republicans (86%) and conservatives (76%) are most likely to support Brown.b.Independents currently break for Brown 42% to 14% and Unaffiliated voters break for Brown 42% to

    24%.

    c.There is a modest split among liberal and moderate/conservative Democrats with 76% of liberal

    Democrats favoring Warren, but only 51% of moderate/conservative Democrats saying they will vote for

    her.

    When asked in an open ended question what they think of Brown, 12% of voters say that he is a moderate or an independent, 6% say he is honest, 6% say he relates to “regular people”, 6% mention his truck. Negative comments about Brown are that he is dishonest or a fake (5%), that he votes with Republicans too much (3%).a.About 1/3 of Democrats give Brown a generally positive comment when they think about Brown. Among

    moderate/conservative Democrats, 39% have good things to say about him.

    Thoughts About Scott Brown

    Positive

    Positive in general15%

    Honest6%

    Relates to regular people6%

    Moderate6%

    Pickup truck6%

    Independent6%

    Fair/Open minded4%

    Republican4%

    Good looking3%

    Bipartisan2%

    Negative

    Negative in general5%

    Fake3%

    Votes with Republicans too much3%

    Distrust2%

    Conservative2%

    Big Business2%

    Inconsistent2%

    Not intelligent/experienced2%

    Arrogant1%

    RINO1%

    Other17%

    DK8%

    (517)

    5

    When asked in an open ended question what they think of Warren, 13% of voters say that she is a consumer advocate, 9% say she is intelligent, 5% mention they want a woman in government. Negative comments about Warren are that she is a liberal or progressive or is too liberal (9%), 4% mention Harvard or that she is an elitist.

    Thoughts About Elizabeth Warren

    Positive

    Consumer advocate13%

    Intelligent9%

    Positive in general8%

    Woman/woman in government5%

    Hard worker3%

    Democrat3%

    Honest2%

    Negative

    Too liberal6%

    Negative in general3%

    Liberal/Progressive3%

    Harvard2%

    Elitist2%

    Dishonest1%

    Lack of experience1%

    Lawyer1%

    Other13%

    DK20%

    Total(506)

    Candidate Characteristics

    a.Brown is seen as the strongest leader by 43% to Warren’s 31%, with 4% saying someone else, 2% saying

    neither, and 20% unsure.

    b.Brown is thought to be the most likable candidate – 57% say Brown is most likable, 23% say Warren is.

    A plurality of Democrats (40% to 38%) think is Brown is more likable.

    c.Brown, however, is seen as the more bipartisan of the two, and is thought better able to work with

    members of the opposite party, with 49% saying Brown, 27% Warren, 3% someone else, 3% neither, and

    17% don’t know.

    d.Voters are evenly split over which candidate best understands people like themselves: 40% say Warren,

    39% say Brown, 2% say someone else, 5% say neither, and 14% don’t know. This is true for people of all

    economic classes, except people who think they are poor who prefer Warren.

    e.A plurality say that Warren (44%) would do more to help working people, 35% say Brown, 3% someone

    else, 3% neither, and 14% don’t know.

    Understanding People Like Me

    a.Voters are split over how well Warren understands the needs of people like themselves: 30% think

    she understands their needs very well, 33% say somewhat well, 10% think not very well, 12% not well at

    all, and 15% don’t know.

    b.However, only 26% say Brown understands their needs very well, while 40% think he

    understands their needs somewhat well, 16% say not very well, 11% not well at all, and 7% don’t know.6

Brown’s Performance as Senator

    Brown is seen by a majority of likely voters as somewhat responsive to the people and needs of Massachusetts -- 19% say he is very responsive, 52% say he is somewhat responsive, 14% not very responsive, 5% think not responsive at all, and 10% don’t know.

    a.There is bipartisan agreement regarding his level of responsiveness to MA.

    Brown has also crafted an image for himself as somewhat of a maverick. Currently, a plurality of likely voters (44%) say Brown is only sometimes influenced by the Republican Party, 27% say he votes independently of the GOP, and 20% think he is heavily influenced by the Party.

    a.Even a plurality of Democrats (47%) say Brown is only sometimes influenced, though 31% feel he is

    heavily influenced by the GOP.

    MA Senate Issues

    Likely voters were given several issues facing the country, and asked who they thought would be best able to accomplish or solve each issue.

    a.On the issue of cutting spending on social programs, 65% of likely voters thought Brown would be best

    able to accomplish this, 8% said Warren, 2% thought both had an equal chance, and 25% didn’t know.

    b.Warren (56%) is seen as best able to raise taxes on wealthy Americans, while 13% said Brown.

    c.Brown holds a moderate lead over Warren on the issue of lowering the price of gasoline, 23%-11%.

    However, 50% did not know which would be able to solve this issue.

    d.Brown also has an advantage over Warren on the issue of balancing the federal budget 37%-21%.

    e.But 40% say Warren is best able to reduce the power of corporations in America, while 20% think Brown

    is better able to accomplish this.

    Both Don’t

    BrownWarrenEqualKnow(N)

    Cut spending on social programs65%8%2%25%(527)

    Balance the federal budget37%21%8%34%(523)

    Lower the price of gas23%11%16%50%(502)

    Reduce power of corporations20%46%7%28%(529)

    Raise taxes on wealthy Americans13%56%5%26%(536)

    Class and the Economy

    Most MA likely voters see themselves as part of the middle class: only 5% say they are in the upper class, 56% say they are in the middle class, 31% say they are in the working class, 5% are poor, and 2% don’t know.

    a.There are few demographic differences, as most place themselves in the middle class.

    b.However, a plurality of minority voters see themselves as part of the working class.More than half of likely voters (57%) have had to delay an important purchase or decision this year because of money.

    a.Lower income voters are most likely to say they have put off important purchases. Among voters who have had to delay a purchase or decision, the most common example cited was the purchase of a new car (28%), followed by home renovations or repairs (16%), basic necessities like food or bills (10%), electronics or appliances (9%), and vacation or travel (8%).

    7

IV.Gubernatorial Approval

    Deval Patrick’s job approval dropped dramatically in 2008 but has since recovered. Currently, 57% of all MA adults approve of the job Patrick is doing as Governor, 31% disapprove, and 11% are neutral. In October 2010, 45% of the MA adults approved of Patrick’s job as Governor and 47% disapproved.

    a.Democrats (82%), liberals, minorities, low income voters, and voters with post-graduate

    educations give Patrick his highest approval ratings.

    b.Republicans (68%) and conservatives are most likely to disapprove.

    Deval Patrick Approval Ratings

    ** Likely special Senate election voters.

    Patrick’s favorability ratings have also improved – 57% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Patrick, 27% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 16% are neutral or don’t know. Patrick’s net favorability rating (the percentage favorable minus the percentage unfavorable) is +30%, up significantly from +7% in August.

    a.Patrick gets his highest favorability ratings from Democrats (81%), liberals, minorities, and

    people who consider themselves upper class.

    b.His lowest ratings come from Republicans (56% have an unfavorable opinion of him) and

    conservatives.

    Favorability Ratings

    2.

    FavorableNeutralUnfavorableDon’t KnowNet(N)

    Patrick (Mar. ‘12) -- LV57%10%27%6%+30%(543)

    Patrick (Aug. 11)45%11%38%6%+7%(493)

    Patrick (Oct. ’10) - LV49%6%43%2%+6%(518)

    Patrick (Sept. ’10)43%11%43%3%0%(520)

    Patrick (June ’10)43%8%45%4%-2%(558)

    Patrick (Jan. ’10) **39%7%50%5%-11%(553)

    Patrick (July ’09)36%9%52%3%-16%(545)

    Patrick (Dec. ’08)64%6%24%6%+40%(501)

    Patrick (Sept. ’07)57%12%26%6%+31%(503)

    Patrick (April ’07)63%9%25%4%+38%(498)

    Patrick (Aug. ’05)10%12%5%73%+5%(501)

    Patrick (March ’05)11%7%5%78%+6%(498)

    8

** Likely 2010 Special Senate Election Voters

9

V.Other Political Figures

    Despite losing to Brown in the January 2010 special election, Martha Coakley remains a very popular figure in

    Massachusetts politics. Her net favorability rating is +39%.

    John Kerry remains modestly popular, his net favorability rating is +17%, largely unchanged in recent years.

    Tim Murray has seen his favorability ratings plummet after his accident last fall – his net favorability rating is

    -1%, down from +21% in 2007.

    Charlie Baker has dropped off the radar screen of most voters after his 2010 gubernatorial challenge.

    Favorability Ratings

    FavorableNeutralUnfavorableDon’t KnowNet(N)

    Baker (Mar. ’12) – LV18%10%16%56%+2%(540)

    Baker (Oct. ’10) - LV38%8%40%14%-2%(519)

    Baker (Sept. ’10)31%14%25%30%+6%(520)

    Baker (June ’10)20%16%20%45%0%(558)

    Baker (Jan. ’10) **19%6%13%62%+6%(551)

    Baker (July ’09)16%6%14%63%+2%(545)

    Coakley (Mar. ’12) -- LV62%6%23%9%+39%(541)

    Coakley (Jan. ’10) **61%6%26%8%+35%(553)

    Coakley (July ’09)56%7%15%21%+41%(545)

    Coakley (Dec. ’08)58%4%12%25%+46%(501)

    Coakley (Sept. ’07)56%10%14%21%+42%(501)

    Coakley (April ’07)62%10%10%18%+52%(498)

    DeLeo (Mar. ’12) -- LV17%12%27%44%-10%(540)

    Grossman (Mar. ’12) – LV30%10%6%53%+24%(542)

    Kerry (Mar. ’12) -- LV54%5%37%4%+17%(543)

    Kerry (Aug. ’11)52%9%34%5%+18%(494)

    Kerry (Sept. ’10)48%10%38%5%+10%(520)

    Kerry (June ’10)52%5%37%6%+15%(558)

    Kerry (July ’09)46%7%44%3%+2%(543)

    Therese Murray (Mar. ’12)20%9%17%54%+3%(542)

    Therese Murray (Sept. ’07)18%23%11%47%+7%(503)

    Therese Murray (April ’07)29%19%9%43%+20%(493)

    Tim Murray (Mar. ’12) LV29%8%30%33%-1%(542)

    Tim Murray (Sept. ’07)31%20%10%39%+21%(500)

    Tim Murray (April ’07)41%18%6%35%+35%(494)

    ** Likely 2010 Special Senate Election Voters10

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