China’s Policy Towards North Korea and the Six-Party TalksChina’s Policy Towards North Korea and the Six-Party Talks
On Dec 8, 2009, Stephen Bosworth, Washington’s North Korean envoy, arrived in North Korea and met the Vice Foreign Minister. North Korea and the United States have reached "common understandings" on the need to resume the six-party nuclear talks and implement a 2005 landmark deal on the North's denuclearization. Recently the South Korea has proposed to talk about resuming the tourism of KeumGang Mountain and GaeSung of the North Korea. This also contributed to the conference between the South and North Korea. We can imagine that this will be a new turning point of the strained security situation of the North-East Asia and Korean Peninsula caused by the failure of the 7th and the 8th six-party talks in 2008 and the North Korea’s missile and nuclear test in 2009. As far as the circumference countries consider, the motion of North Korea indicated that the North Korea reverses the announcement that the six-party talks were over and are willing to come back to the talk table. The change of the North Korea’s attitude attributed to Stephen W. Bosworth ambassador’s visit to Pyongyang and the positive effort to solve the problem in pace. In my opinion,
China contributed most to diplomatic achievement for solve North Korea’s problem. In order to make the North Korea attend the “Talks” successfully, China early took a carrot and stick approach to exert diplomatic and economic influence. Actually, China didn’t react to the 1st nuclear crisis of the North Korea until the 2nd nuclear issue took place. And now China is considered as the most influential country in resolving nuclear issue of the North Korea. I also think that the diplomatic choice and effort of China will affect the global security order directly, at least the Korean Peninsula.
Therefore, what the motive of China to take part in the six-party talks actively?What does China want to get? And what is the strategic purpose of China?
Thus, let’s take a look at the reasons that China involve in the six-party talks actively and the judgment of national interest according with the strategic thought and choice. At the same time, let’s talk about the influence of China’s diplomatic effort to Korean Peninsula.
?. The security strategy of China and the influence to the North Korea
1.The diplomacy and security policy of China
1)The development of diplomacy and security policy of China
According to time, the change of China’s security strategy can be divided into 5 stages. 1st stage (hostile relation) from the establishing of the PRC to the late 1950s China practiced security policies that were against America and were close to Soviet Union. 2nd stage (strategic alliance relation) from the early 1960s to the late 1960s China together with countries of the third world resisted imperialism, revisionism and reaction. 3rd stage (economic alliance relation) from the early 1970s to the late 1970s, in order to blockade the Soviet Union. China and America came into a honey mood period. 4th stage (conflict relation) from the early 1980s to the early 1990s holding the slogan of “development and pace” China practiced the nonalignment independent diplomatic policies. 5th stage (a period of competition and cooperation, crisis and reconciliation existing side by side) From the late 1990s until now, after the collapse of Soviet Union the Cold War ended and America became the unique super country. China resists hegemonies and propels the companion diplomacy and multiplex diplomacy.
Diplomatic divisionperiodCharacterSecurity policy
The1950shostile relationAgainst America and close to Soviet Union1st stage
Thestrategic alliance together with countries of the third world resisting 1960s2nd stagerelationimperialism, revisionism and reaction
Theeconomic alliance China and America came into a honey mood 1970s3rd stagerelationperiod to blockade Soviet Union
holding the slogan of “development and pace” The1980sconflict relationpracticing the nonalignment independent 4th stage~early1990sdiplomatic policies
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a period of competition Resisting hegemonies and propelling the Theearly1990sand cooperation, crisis companion diplomacy and multiplex diplomacy.5th stage~nowand reconciliation
existing side by side
2)China’s new security strategies
Firstly, the relation between powerful nations qualitatively came. Secondly, the existing independent diplomacy based on appreciating the independent right of other countries. This also based on the new interference from America. Thirdly, the existing independent diplomacy based on the third world countries, such as Asia, Africa, Latin America. Though the “one nation two policy” policy put into practice, from the middle 1990s with secessionist activities of Taiwan, the united strategy was threatened.
Thus, the new strategies accord with the enhancement of hegemonies and military interference and the increasing gap between the developed countries and developing countries.3)The purpose of China’s new national security strategy
The past the core of China’s national security strategy was to establish security by developing economy. But with the Cold War ending, America as the unique powerful nation claimed to be the world police and practiced new interference policies, such as intervene Taiwan issue too much. Especially, America put forward the China threat theory and practiced economic policies to isolate China. All that changed the security environment. With the thought that the status quo is not being able to ensure the future national security, the new security that base on enhancement encomia and military power and alliance with the third world countries by practicing multiplicity policies was put forward to whole America in check. Especially, the nuclear issue of the North Korea brought new change of the North East Asia’s security environment.
China played the critical part in resolving nuclear issue to achieve the key part in the North East Asia. The typical example is the Six-Party Talks. Through China playing the role of host country and the unique stakeholder and aspire to be a more responsible country in Asia.
2.China’s power to the North Korea
1) The deeding of North Korea’s trade relying on China
The collapse of Soviet Union and East Europe and The West’s economic sanction to North Korea are the main reasons that the North Korea deepened the trade dependence on China. Previously the trade volume between Soviet Union, East Europe and the North Korea accounted for above 70%, but after 1990 the trade volume between North Korea and China lagged increased. The isolation and economic sanction caused nuclear issue exerted much influence on the trade between North Korea and China. In 2003 the total trade volume of North Korea is 256000000t and the trade volume between China is 1385000000t accounting for 48%.
Firstly, as for grains, after the year of 1997 the contribution from international humanism organization and the South Korea accounted much. But the derision of contribution from international humanism organizations caused by the nuclear issue, the North Korea deepened grain dependence on China. For the contribution from America, South Korea and international humanism organizations decreased, China became the unique access. In that case North Korea dependence on China seems to call for help. As for oil, North Korea dependent on China heavily. From 1992 almost all of North Korea’s energy came from China and application amount accounted for 70%.
Especially, expect for importing 125000t oil from Russia in 2002, all energy relied on China.
Chart: China to North Korea assists materials
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reference source: KOTRA external trade of China
Furthermore, about 80% of the consumption goods in North Korea are made in China and North Korea’s consumption goods market mainly relies on China. Construction materials such as chemicals, steel, fiber and so on mainly rely on China.
2) The increasing trend of China’s investment to North Korea
Kim Jong-Il visit to China in 2000 and 2002 improvement in economic management measures in North Korea for investment since China began to increase companies' interest. North Korea's major companies invest in various areas such as resource development, manufacturing and fishing, particularly for iron ore and copper mine development and investment, and the incidence and major investment interest in North China, northeast region is not limited to a businesses including without transvestite showing the trend has spread nationwide. For those interested in investment in North Korea in the local parts nationwide trend developed symptoms going reforms in North Korea. ?. The purpose of the six-party talks involved China
The key factors in China these changes are provide leadership to a new policy on North Korean nuclear crisis, China's attitude to stress is the cause of conversion. From Nov. 2002 to March 2003 through the National People's Congress, top position of commander has complete factorial from Zhang,ZeMin to Hu,JinTao. On Sept. 2004 16th Party enlarged meeting through competition Zhang,ZeMin resign completely from front-line politics in the 4th generation of 3rd-generation leaders of the political succession to the leadership and finalized. This change of political leader inevitably involves a change of national policy. Therefore, China's diplomatic strategy was the 3rd generation of leaders representing “TaoGuangYangHui(韬光韬晦)” strategic leadership to represent
the 4th generation of “peaceful development (和平韬展)” strategy was to switch to.
TaoGuangYangHui is sustain China’s development strategy of peace, economic growth and development to maintain and being raised with the rise of China 'China Threat' to mitigate the key aims in terms of the kinds of mutual affinity, but a common goal TaoGuangYangHui in the process of achieving a passive approach, peace, development strategy is the aggressive approach and has the differences. In other words, TaoGuangYangHui China's continued growth and development to ensure that unnecessary conflicts with other countries to refrain from most of the best ways to emphasize a point and the center of American power in the international system, the way that the presence of US-centric international system rather than a challenge to the military presence in the international system the United States following a peaceful transfer of power would be to pursue has been clearly. In contrast, the “peaceful development” of the concept of strategy that has on purposes the country's national strength.
As a result of China approving war on terror led by the United States since the terrorist 9.11 at the level of acquiescence and showing positive support, the U.S. economy and diplomatic friction paying the conflict the trend is going down. China's friendly relations with the international community enhance the role in international society and, therefore, for the North Korean nuclear issue of China's intervention. To strengthen the U.S. relationship has been tried in a dimension can be seen. The 2nd North Korea nuclear crisis in 2003 after the outbreak, the United States and North Korea as a distrust of each other and rely on arbitration in China, and the mutual exchange of opinions was meant to prepare for negotiations, and therefore the intervention of China, the United States out of the dilemma Aid for China's diplomacy can be assumed.
But China and U.S. relations more directly associated with the situational causes of a preemptive U.S. military attack on North Korea can be considered as possible. Therefore, China's entry in North Korea and US relations in the nuclear crisis to get worse before it can intervene diplomatically to resolve the country's national interests, thought that plus much more in the 2nd to the nuclear crisis has been transcended to see oneself will be.
?. China's strategy and policy goals towards Korean Peninsula
1. China's political stand-point
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1) Position for the six-party talks on the configuration participating countries
As for North Korean nuclear issue, China's key Party claimed that North Korea and other countries need bilateral dialogues. The U.S. has shown the need for dialogue. However, the U.S. bilateral dialogue with North Korea refused to claim multi-party talks to recognize the inevitable, three-party talks and the six-party talks to make it happen was actively deploying foreign intervention. Since April 2003 three-party talks, China and the United States once again held multi-party talks held this claim suggesting larger consequences of show entry, a compromise position of North Korea and the United States in the form of bilateral dialogue and six-party talks that North Korea, Russia and Japan preferred to was held in Beijing. North Korea claimed that bilateral talks with the strong opposition of the United States can not achieve, and five-party dialogue the United States claimed that the U.S. side unilaterally favorable composition aspects, because there is difficult to induce North Korea's participation, as well as Japan's role on the Korean Peninsula issue could enhance the excessive discretion to Russia, with rather more informative six-party talks was concluded.
2) Attitude on the reasonableness of the six-party talks
China estimated that the purpose of the United States participating in the six-party talks is to isolate North Korea from the international community and during nuclear problem-solving process to require responsibilities for the participating countries in East Asia ,but the following six-party talks believe has not been the same rationality. First, the nuclear issue of the one, because it matches significant position in talks sense. The resulting report what was a balanced approach is possible. In other words, the United States six-party talks as opposed to the idea of isolating North Korea will not work only with composition has been considered. In fact, held four times in the six-party talks on North Korea's unilateral deployment was not adverse to the composition. Second, the North Korean nuclear issue, the North Korea and America relation is not just the problem of peace in Northeast Asia. Prosperity and related issues, the six-party talks in Northeast Asia, because it involved all the key countries of Northeast Asia a better position to understand and be reflected as a reasonable mechanism are perceived to be functional. In other words, and even security issues in Northeast Asia that is considered an ideal model. Third, the U.S. six-party talks.
Japan and the U.S, South Korea and the U.S bilateral security alliance and the existing system to include a new collective security system with existing security systems with new security system to resolve the contradiction between the reports is able to function effectively. Therefore, the nuclear issue, China and Northeast Asia as a key goal of the policy setting, and actual performance is not important. Nuclear issue is not the type of important issues open to participating countries meeting held six-party talks were to continue the momentum of the dialogue.
2. The goal of China’s policies
1) Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
China's domestic economic construction, creating a favorable environment for foreign policy and because of the key objectives set by the North Korean nuclear weapons and want to cause instability in Northeast Asia has not. The Korean Peninsula, China and 1300 kilometers over the border and past Maritime Power have invaded marine forces to China because China experienced utilized as a stepping-stone to being recognized as the most important strategic. In other words, China's leaders about the security of the Korean peninsula is still in China has reported a buffer zone.
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In addition, North Korea's nuclear program North Korea vs. US relations to deteriorate including Japan and the countries of the arms because they can act as stimulating factors and China on North Korea's nuclear weapons development is negative. Suspicions about its nuclear facilities if North America some areas, even if limited to the bombing of 1961. Military alliance treaty with the North Korea has an obligation to support the North Korea can make China fall into a dilemma. North Korea's nuclear weapons development U.S. forces stationed in the region continued to build the MD system and the American military influence in East Asia as an excuse to strengthen could be used is determined. North Korea does not close the old from the North Korea nuclear weapons state, which is a direct threat to the security of China's capital, will be. North Korean nuclear weapons to secure support from China for various public pressures could be utilized as a means, even by North Korea's nuclear separatist and dissident groups in China, the possibility can not get into a flow. And North Korea's nuclear weapons is to stimulate Japan's nuclear armament, such as in East Asia and China have enjoyed a nuclear monopoly to be losing is concerned.
Therefore, China's consistent emphasis on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula have opposed North Korea's nuclear program.
2) Diplomatic mediation with a peaceful resolution
China argued that the United States to resolve the nuclear issue with international community against North Korea as a means to pressure the military is not desirable. U.S. and North Korean nuclear issue, UN Security Council to use military measures against North Korea China can exert diplomatic role will be limited. In other words, whether or U.S. relations and China's security thinking about the demilitarized zone with North Korea will need to prioritize the relationship between the fall can be a dilemma. Sanctions and take military action, even if the negative effect on North Korea to maintain the socialist system in North China, the burden of the increase could be in China. Furthermore, the U.S. and North Korean nuclear issue can bring economic pressure or military means to solve the case and let the Korean peninsula and seriously worsen the situation surrounding Northeast Asia and China's economic development and social stability can lead to an inhibition.
Therefore China wants the North Korea nuclear issue peacefully through dialogue, resolve to maintain peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, China's policy direction is reported to be consistent.
3) Resolve North Korea's security concerns
Carrying out its nuclear card is crucial because the U.S. military threat and the regime change in North Korea because of the pressure to judge North Korea's reasonable security concerns about the resolve to be" fundamentally resolve the nuclear issue have shown a possible position. North Korea's security needs must be acceptable to a certain point of entry and an important reason for China's nuclear issue, the U.S. military presence in East Asia by strengthening the cause, and has the intent to destroy the regime and the terms this view would have. China, North Korea to scrap nuclear program instead of a security threat to the United States needs to give "rational" aspects think people are watching. Therefore, the United States claimed North Korea, China and North Korea to agree with the principle of simultaneous actions are the position.
North Korea to freeze nuclear program, rather than destroy, the United States and North Korea off the state sponsors of terrorism list, North Korea politics. Withdraw from military sanctions and blockade and heavy fuel oil North Korea. The power to give it support, and the corresponding action was preferable to see there is.
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In contrast, if the socialist system in North Korea collapses numbers of North Koreans
will flee to northeast China. Currently about 50,000 people in China, at least within the North Koreans are believed to have traveled and raised in the Northeast Region of the many powerful people involved in the case said the North has appeared.
Therefore, China will resolve the North Korea's international isolation; economic difficulties have been mitigated by U.S. politicians. Maintaining social stability is hope.3. China as a more responsible stakeholder
China, North Korea and the United States compromise the position to serve as a mediator to resolve the nuclear crisis in North Korea at the same time continue to influence and to improve relations with the United States was. In addition, the six-party talks in China by the Sacraments in the international community are to strengthen its position as a responsible great power is rated as one. First, China has an influence on North Korea through North Korea to participate in a larger multi-party talks were to convince. North Korea to continue nuclear program is under attack from China, the United States