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TOC-Measurements

By Paul Lawson,2014-12-01 16:19
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TOC-Measurements

Tell Me How You Will Measure Me

    It has been said; “Tell me how you will measure me, and I will tell you how I will behave (1).”

    The measurements in any organization are the No. 1 formal feedback system in that

    organization. So let‟s start with measurements in order to better understand our current

    approach to business, and to help us do that let‟s also return to our simple model that we first saw in the introduction.

    How would you be measured in such a system? If you recall it was likely that you were in work up

    to your eyeballs. Is that an issue? It certainly shows that your position is important and necessary and that you have lots of work to get through. If others have even larger piles of work it might lead you to believe that they are not as efficient as you are. Is relative efficiency an issue?

    It would seem so.

    Near-the-endBeginningMiddleEnd

    What if it was actually another department or section that wants the work next or that should have provided you with the work by now, rather than someone from your own department. Somehow

    the issue is always greater or at least a great deal more noise is generated when one department is waiting upon another. Does that every reach a stage from time to time that might be described as frustrating? Probably around about the time one department is yelling at you to provide something that is still stuck in another department somewhere else. The matter is essentially beyond your control and yet, somehow, you are apparently responsible none-the-less.

    Does this frustration ever look like becoming despair? Well probably annually if your company has performance reviews. Maybe even more frequently if you are accountable for departmental performance. Accountability for departmental performance might be some derived efficiency

    report, it might be some sort of derived profit or cost report.

Reductionist / Local Optima Approach

    The whole internal business performance measurement system is based upon local optimization, either in the form of departmental utilization/efficiency measures or as departmental cost/profit

    performance measures - or both! And we don‟t need to limit ourselves to departments within a business. It could equally be businesses within a company, or companies within a corporation.

    It takes some conscious effort to realize that the formalization of local efficiency measures through the activities of “scientific” management Taylorism is only about 100 years old (2, 3).

    Scientific management is such a seductive idea because it legitimizes the actions that we as

    individuals find so effective in our local settings (family, friends etc) and applies it directly to our work processes.

    We assume that the total performance of the system is the sum of all the local performances. In fact it is so common that we probably don‟t even give it much thought.

    This approach then is the reductionist/local optima approach; departmental cost or efficiency is just a symptom or an output of this method.

    Let‟s look at local profit centers a little closer.

    ExpensesExpensesExpensesExpenses

    ProfitProfitProfitProfit

    BudgetBudgetBudgetBudget

    Each department has a budget, representing a flow of money into the department (even if it is only a credit in a set of numbers in a management account somewhere). Money also flows out of the department in the form of expenses (again, even if it is only a debit to those same management

    accounts). The difference is the profit for that department. At the period end if you “make your numbers” there is no problem. If you don‟t make your numbers there is no other problem. We assume then that the sum of the profits for each department is the same as the total profit for the system as a whole.

    However there is condition that must be met in order to sum the local profits as we have just done. The condition is that there is independence between departments. Let‟s examine that condition.

    ExpensesExpensesExpensesExpenses

    ProfitProfitProfitProfit

     InputInputInputInput

    Output Output Output Output

    BudgetBudgetBudgetBudget

    In order to sum the local profits, indeed the local optima, the inflow of work into each department must be truly independent of the other departments. An independent input and output has been

    drawn in. If I owned a franchise for a no-names fast food shop in several different towns, then I would meet these conditions and I could sum the local profits because my input/output (customers) are geographically isolated from each other. Does this reflect reality for most

    process systems? Probably not. Let‟s have a closer look.

    ExpensesExpensesExpensesExpenses

    ProfitProfitProfitProfit

     Input Input InputInput

    Output OutputOutputOutput

    BudgetBudgetBudgetBudget

    For most systems that we are thinking of there is no real independence of the work flow from department to department. Oh, we might fool ourselves, and say yes, we have so much

    work-in-process that the work flow behaves as though it is independent (as we have drawn above) but we all know that when that urgent job needs to move through the system there are dependencies for sure. So, let‟s draw the system as it really is.

    ExpensesExpensesExpensesExpenses

    ProfitProfitProfitProfit

     Input

     Output

    BudgetBudgetBudgetBudget

    This is quite a different diagram to the earlier one. We have in reality full dependence; we can‟t sum the local profits to get the profit of the system because each department is coupled by the work flow. This is why we suffer frustration, we want to do something, but we can’t because

    we depend upon someone else doing something else first. Moreover, the output from this

    system is always less than we expect that we are capable of given the sum of the local outputs.

    Of course we can always fudge this to some extent in our annual budget round by under promising in order to ensure that we perform adequately. Overall, however, if we are measured against some standard that assumes independence such as efficiencies or cost/profit centers then the

    frustration will turn to despair.

So, How Do We Measure Success Here?

    We typically determine success in several ways. In absolute terms by net profit, in relative

    terms by return on investment, or in survival terms by cash flow (4). But how do we relate our

    on-going operational decisions our departmental decisions to overall system success? How

    do we bridge between our operational decisions and system success? Goldratt and Fox have coined this bridge the “cost” bridge (4).

    Let‟s draw it.

     IncreaseIncreaseIncrease

    Net ProfitReturn on InvestmentCash Flow

    Cost Bridge

    Local Actions

    Any local actions that has a positive effect on cost (reduces it) will increase net profit, increase return on investment, and increase cash flow. In fact, in the section on the bottom line we

    essentially accepted this without question. Remember? We calculated that a 10% decrease in operating expense at current output would result in a 13% increase in net profit in our example. The only thing in contention was whether we should be satisfied by such an increase. Such a

    cost saving would increase net profit, return on investment, and cash flow. In fact why stop there? If we could get our vendors to shave 10% off their prices as well, we could increase these bottom line measures even further. Clearly decreasing cost always has a positive impact on the

    bottom line right? Let‟s investigate this a little further.

The P & Q Analysis

    In the Haystack Syndrome, Goldratt presented a small thought experiment, known as the P & Q problem (5). It is named after the two products it produces “P‟s” and “Q‟s.” This elegant little

    example, strictly educational, seems to have taken on a life of it‟s own as it turns up in various examples to illustrate concepts as broad as total preventative maintenance. Often the numbers

    and the story have mutated somewhat in the process, but at the heart is the P & Q problem.

    Because the example is educational, I have split it out here into separate pages (you wouldn‟t cheat but you might accidentally see the answer before you see the question). The P & Q

    question is here. Try to work through it first. The first part of the answer is here. Check

    the answer after your first attempt.

    The P & Q is important. Please try to do it before you go any further.

    What happen in the P & Q when you worked through it based upon your experience? You

    probably tried to optimize it following some fairly rational arguments, you probably also got a less than desirable answer. What went wrong?

Saving Cost Alone Is Not Enough

    Saving cost is synonymous with local optimization. However, we have seen from the example

    above that saving cost alone is not a sufficient bridge between local actions and the bottom line measures of; net profit, return on investment, and cash flow. In fact neither is maximizing labor utilization nor any other of the local optimizations.

    Maybe the P&Q was an exceptional example? However if you want to believe this, then please read Debra Smith‟s war stories in “Unbelievable decisions by companies you would know if I could name them (6).” In fact to do justice, please don‟t stop at the end of the first chapter of that book, read the whole book.

    What then if you were to observe the financial manager of a large business or the owner/manager of a small business over a period of time? Then, I think that you will see that decisions based

    upon cost are indeed undertaken up to a point. That point is where the person‟s intuition takes over and the cost based decision is overturned or moderated (moderated by common sense as it happens). The important point is that intuition should at some point take over. The danger is

    that non-operational people, or financial people who “believe” the numbers but don‟t have access to their composition, may make erroneous decisions as a consequence. Cost-based decisions

    often give rise to the wrong answers.

    Thus the bridge between local actions and the bottom line results of net profit, return on investment, and cash flow must be based on cost + intuition, and not on cost alone (4).

     IncreaseIncreaseIncrease

    Net ProfitReturn on InvestmentCash Flow

    Cost (+ Intuition) Bridge

    Local Actions

    Is this satisfactory? Well I don‟t think so, but we can save that for the section on accounting for change. Let‟s leave the last word at the moment to Schragenheim and Dettmer “Operational decisions based on traditional cost concepts can be confidently considered unreliable (7).”

How Did We Get Into This Mess?

    Well human endeavor sort of “grew” into this mess. Think about it for a moment. It‟s not all that long ago that there were no process-based businesses. Certainly the industrial revolution the

    steam powered one that is is only about 200 years old. And the earlier phase of the industrial revolution that waterwheel powered one extends that time frame back about another 100

    years. Before the industrial revolution there were no process industries only cottage industries.

    In a cottage industry even where whole towns were involved, there were many small parallel systems of few parts fulling, spinning, dyeing, and weaving wool spring to mind. In fact they are rather like the first profit/cost system diagram that we drew with totally independent inputs and

    outputs in each department. With the onset of the industrial revolution there was a move from many small parallel systems to a smaller number of larger serial systems of many parts. The first processes industries grew out of linen milling and similar agricultural based processing. The rest, as they say, is history.

    Of course a large number of parallel systems in a loose network is an extremely robust form of process (8). However, as we will learn in later pages, there are also ways to create very robust

    serial systems as well.

    In all pre-industrial history local optimization equaled global optimization they were one and the

    same. However, as a process becomes more serial in nature it is less likely that local optimization can equal global optimization. We outgrew local optimization in serial (industrial) processes, but we forgot to replace local optimization with something else.

What To Do Rules Of Engagement

    Let‟s turn to natural systems for a moment for some guidance, “Living systems have integrity.

    Their character depends on the whole. The same is true for organizations; to understand the most challenging managerial issues requires seeing the whole system that generates issues (9).”

    Let‟s start again from scratch then or if we want to be more proper first principles. It seems

    that we need to know what the system is that we are dealing with, where does it start, and where does it end. We need to know what the system exists for, and we need to know how to measure

    progress towards the reason for its existence.

    Scheinkopf expresses this as (10);

    (1) Define the system and its purpose.

    (2) Determine the system‟s fundamental measurements.

    Why do we have this particular order? Well, the organization in fact defines the measurements

    rather than the other way around the measurements define the organization. Margaret

    Wheatley is more articulate. She argues that in too many organizations “… the measures define

    what is meaningful rather than letting the greater meaning of the work define the measures. As

    the focus narrows, people disconnect from any larger purpose, and only do what is required of

them (11).” We can‟t afford to have people disconnect from the larger purpose, we are not going

    to let that happen here.

    So, let‟s expand this expression out a little more to get the following;

    (1) Define the system.

    (2) Define the goal of the system.

    (3) Define the necessary conditions.

    (4) Define the fundamental measurements.

    This is going to be our basis, our rules of engagement. Let‟s look at each facet in turn.

Define The System

    Let‟s return to our simple model of a system again. It seems that we are defining our systems as

    something like the beginning + middle + near-the-end + end. We will call it “our system” for short.

    BeginningMiddleNear-the-endEnd

Our system could, for instance, be a process within a business.

    AssemblyProcurementFabricationDispatch

It might be a business stream within a company.

    DesignManufactureDistributionSales

It might be a company within a division, or it might be a division with a corporation. All that we

    need to know is that they are bound together by some commonality of process. Consider a car manufacturer as the ultimate version of our simple system.

    And let‟s not leave out not-for-profit. How about a public health system as an example?

    InterventionReferralAssessmentDischarge

    And what ties the dependencies in this system together? Us, the general public, the patients. Public health systems have tremendous WIP waiting lists. Equally, they have lots of ways for

    pretending that they don‟t have waiting lists, such as sending referrals back to their General Practitioners until they are really very ill.

Define The Goal Of The System

    “‟The owners have the sole right to determine the goal.‟ If we are dealing with a privately held company, no outsider can predict its goal. We must directly ask the owners (12).” For a company whose shares are traded in the open market “a company’s goal is to make more

    money now as well as in the future.”

    I underlined the word “open” because in some instances publicly held companies are not traded in

    the open market. Consider Japan for instance. Many publicly listed companies in Japan have tightly held multiple cross-shareholdings (and often considerable debt finance). In instances like this we might expect that these companies will behave more like a private company would in other parts of the world. It is not enough to assume that making money is the goal of these organizations.

Returning to our definition of the goal in openly traded companies; most often we find that the

    “more money” has been dropped from the definition, and that is what we will adopt here. However, the word “more” indicates that the goal is in fact open-ended. This highlights that fact

    that in contrast to a “necessary condition” you can‟t have enough of the goal. Maybe in the

    context of money therefore, the word “more” is redundant. You can test this, ask someone, anyone, whether they wouldn‟t like to make more money now and in the future or whether they are contented with what they currently receive.

    Let‟s write the goal for a public company traded on the open stock exchange.

    Make money now and in

    the future

    We must make sufficient money to reward the owners of the capital after meeting all of our expenses, and we must make sufficient money to continue to profitably reinvest in the business.

Define The Necessary Conditions

    Once we have defined the goal, we must define any necessary conditions. Necessary conditions are minimum levels of other entities that must be present in order to satisfy the goal. In this

    respect necessary conditions can be viewed as having limits. Once a necessary condition is satisfied, additional levels of input will not result in an increased attainment of the goal.

    The two most generic necessary conditions are (12);

    (1) Provide employees with a secure and satisfying workplace now and in the future.

    (2) Satisfy customers now and in the future.

    Let‟s add these to our goal.

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