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International Macro Lectures October 2012(100

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International Macro Lectures October 2012(100

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    Tsinghua University

    Topics in International Macroeconomics

    开放型宏观经济的若干专题

    主讲人;魏尚进教授

    Teaching Assistant: Liu Yangyang, liuyy.10@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn

Target audience: Phd students in economics + advanced undergraduate students + interested

    faculty members

Lecture 1 Current Account Economics

    October 14 Sunday 9:30 am-12:00 noon

    ; Overview of the entire set of lectures

    ; Three ways to look at the current account

    ; General equilibrium effect versus partial equilibrium effect

    Readings:

    1. If you need to review the basic concept about current account and its relationship with

    other macroeconomic variables such as GDP and trade balance, you might check it

    out from a standard undergraduate textbook such as Caves, Frankel, and Jones‟ World

    Trade and Payments: An Introduction, or a standard graduate-level textbook such as

    Obstfeld and Rogoff‟s Foundations of International Macroeconomics.

    2. “Trade Reforms and Current Account Imbalances,” by Jiandong Ju, Kang Shi, and

    Shang-Jin Wei, 2012

Lecture 2 Equilibrium Exchange Rates

    October 14 Sunday 2-5:00 pm

    ; Conventional views on the current account and exchange rate

    ; Conventional determinants of the real exchange rate

    ; The competitive savings motive

    ; Darwinian perspective on the real exchange rate

    Readings:

    1. “The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings

    Rates in China,” by Shang-Jin Wei and Xiaobo Zhang, Journal of Political

    Economy. 2011, 119 (3): 511-564.

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    2. “A Darwinian Perspective on „Exchange Rate Undervaluation‟,” by Qingyuan Du

    and Shang-Jin Wei, NBER working paper 16788,

    http://www.nber.org/papers/w16788.

    3. “Methodology for CGER Exchange Rate Assessment,” IMF Research

    Department, 2006, http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2006/110806.pdf

Lecture 3 Equilibrium Exchange Rates (continued)

    October 15 Monday, 15:30-18:00

    ; Additional non-conventional determinants of the real exchange rate

    ; Nominal exchange rate regimes and current account adjustments

    Readings:

    1. A Faith-based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate

    Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?” Menzie Chinn and Shang-

    Jin Wei, Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012. http://www.nber.org/papers/w14420

    2. Roads and the Real Exchange Rate, Qingyuan Du, Shang-Jin Wei, and Peichu Xie,

    2012.

Lecture 4 Structural Adjustments in China and the World

    October 17 14:00 18:00

    Venue: 伟伦楼报告厅

    Panel discussion featuring Justin Y Lin, David Li, Jiandong Ju, Shang-Jin Wei and others

Lectures 5 Imbalances in Economic Development (a)

    October 18 Thursday, 8:30am-noon

     Attend any two sessions of the Columbia-Tsinghua conference on international economics; Read one paper to be presented ahead of the time.

Lectures 6 Imbalances in Economic Development (b)

    October 19 Friday, 8:30am-noon

     Attend any two sessions of the Columbia-Tsinghua conference on international economics; Read one paper to be presented ahead of the time.

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    Suggestions on readings and research report:

    1. Do the readings before the class. If you do not have the time to fully digest the content,

    you may read the introduction and spend some time getting a broad idea about the

    readings.

    2. Since this is not a course for credit, there will be no exam or mandatory research report.

    However, for those who wish to submit a research paper, you are welcome to submit

    one (about 10-14 pages including all tables and graphs) by December 31.

    Try to make the report analytical, empirical, novel, and interesting to read. It can be on

    any topic related to open-economy macroeconomics, finance or trade. You could

    choose to write something about China, but you are also welcome to write about a

    comparison of China with other countries.

    The report should use 12-point font but can be single spaced or 1.5 line spaced; the

    page length includes tables and graphs. The report can be in either Chinese or English.

    You can choose to do it alone, or form a team of up to three persons.

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    Appendix:

    The 2012 Columbia-Tsinghua Conference on International Economics

    Imbalances in Economic Development: International Perspectives

    October 18-19, 2012

    Organizers:

    The Chazen Institute of International Business at Columbia Business School The Center for International Economic Research at the Tsinghua University National Institute for Fiscal Studies at the Tsinghua University

    Banque de France (Bank of France)

    Keynote Speakers:

    Jean-Pierre Landau (former Deputy Governor of Banque de France)

    Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe (Columbia University and NBER)

    Robert Staiger (University of Wisconsin, Madison and NBER)

    Martin Uribe (Columbia University and NBER)

    Journal of Development Economics special issue

    A subset of the presented papers will be considered for a special issue of the Journal of Development

    Economics, with the same high standard as regular submissions to the journal, though an effort will be made to expedite the review process.

October 18 Morning:

    Opening remarks

    8:20-9:20 Keynote presentation by Martin Uribe (Columbia University) 9:20-9:40 Coffee break

    9:40-12:10 Plenary session:

    1. Understanding Household Savings in China: the Role of the Housing Market and Borrowing

    Constraints

    Matthieu Bussiere (Bank of France), Yannick Kalantzis, Romain Lafarguette, and Terry Sicular

    2. Emerging Economies, Trade Policy, and Macroeconomic Shocks

    Chad Bown and Meredith Crowley (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

    3. Roads and the Real Exchange Rate

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    Qingyuan Du (Monash University), Shang-Jin Wei and Peichu Xie Lunch Break 12:15-13:15

    October 18 Afternoon

    13:20-15:00 Parallel session 1: Capital flows

    4. Two-Way Capital Flows and Global Imbalances: A Neoclassical Approach

    Pengfei Wang, Yi Wen and Zhiwei Xu (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

    5. Financial structure, corporate savings and current account imbalances

    Zhibo Tan (Peking University), Shang-Jin Wei, Yang Yao, and Yue Zhao 13:20-15:00 Parallel session 2: Trade Impact

    6. The Impact of Trade Liberalization in Intermediate Inputs on Wage Inequality in China

    Bo Chen, Miaojie Yu and Zhihao Yu (Carleton University)

    7. How You Export Matters: Export Mode, Learning and Productivity in China

    Xue Bai (The Pennsylvania State University), Kala Krishna and Hong Ma Break 15-15:15

    15:20-17:00 Parallel session 3: Open-economy Macroeconomics

    8. Exports and Equity Flows With Financial Frictions

    Meixin Guo (Tsinghua University) and Huiran Pan

    9. Manufacturing-Finance Comparative Advantage and Global Imbalances

    Rui Mao (Peking University) and Yang Yao

    15:20-17:00 Parallel session 4: Export prices

    10. China’s competition and the export price strategies of developed countries

    Giorgia Giovannetti and Marco Sanfilippo (European University Institute)

    11. Chinese Exports and US Import Prices

    Benjamin R. Mandel (NY Fed)

    17:10-18:10 Keynote speaker: Robert Staiger (University of Wisconsin, Madison)

October 19 morning:

    8:30 10:10 Parallel session 5: Exchange Rates and International Currencies

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    12. When did the dollar overtake sterling as the leading international currency? Evidence from the

    bond markets

    Livia Chițu, Barry Eichengreen and Arnaud Mehl (European Central Bank)

    13. The Emergence of an International Vehicle Currency

    Edwin LAI and Jing Zhou (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) 8:30 10:10 Parallel Session 6: Institutions

    14. Legal reform, contract enforcement and firm size in Mexico,

    Sean M. Dougherty (OECD Economics Department)

    15. Globalization and the (Mis)Governance of Nations

    Arthur Blouin , Sayantan Ghosal and Sharun W. Mukand (University of Warwick)

    10:10-10:30 Coffee Break

    10:30 12:10 Parallel Session 7: Credit Constraint and Exports

    16. Credit Distribution and Export: Theory and Evidence from China

    Yao Amber Li (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology), Kalina Manova and Chen Zhao

    17. Monetary policy, credit constraints, and firm exports: Evidence from China,

    Jiandong Ju, Shu Lin (Fudan University) and Shang-Jin Wei

    10:30 12:10 Parallel session 8: Commodity Prices and FDI

    18. Oil Price Stabilization and Global Welfare

    Qing Liu (Tsinghua), Kang Shi and Juanyi Xu

    19. Foreign Acquisitions and Multinationals' Global Market Strategy

    Qing Liu, Larry D Qiu (University of Hong Kong) and Zhigang Li 12:10-13:10 Lunch

    October 19 Afternoon

    13:10-15:40 Plenary session:

    20. Firm Heterogeneity, Vertical Market Linkage and Regional Trade Barriers: Theory and Evidence

    Jiandong Ju and Li Su (University of Oklahoma)

    21. Is Corruption in China “Out of Control”? A Comparison with the U.S. in Historical Perspective

    Carlos D. Ramirez (George Mason University)

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    22. Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets

    Era Dabla-Norris, Raphael Espinoza (IMF) and Sarwat Jahan

    15:40-16:00 Coffee break

    16:00-17:00 Keynote speaker: Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe (Columbia University) 17:00-18:00 Keynote speaker: Jean-Pierre Landau (Banque de France) 18:00 Conference adjourns

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