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untermeasures:

    ;ACaseofShandongProvince

    ;WangChengxin’,

    ;WangGefang.,

    ;YaoShimou

    ;1.CollegeofPopulation,ResourcesandEnvironment,ShandongNormalUniversity,Jina

    nShandong250014,China

    ;2ResearchCenterofCycleEconomyofShandongProvince,JinanShandong250001,Chin

    a;

    ;3.PartySchooloftheShandongCommitteeofCPC,JinanShandong250021,China;

    ;4.NanjingInstituteofGeographyandLimnology,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Nanjing

    Jiangsu210008,China

    ;Abstract:Energyisnowbecomingthebottleneckofurbanand ;regionaldevelopment.ThepapertakesShandongProvince,one ;ofthemostenergyconsumingprovincesinChina,asanexam

    ;pie,usesquantitymethodssuchasSPSS(StasticsPackagefor ;SocialScience)clustersamplingandregressionanalysis,and ;appliesquantityanalysis,toanalyzethesituationofenergyis

    ;suesinShandongprovince.Theconflictsbetweenthequickin

    ;dustrializationandincreasingextensiveeconomicdevelopment, ;betweenurbanpopulationandenergyconsumingperhead,be

    ;tweentheinfiniteenergyconsumingdesireandthelowlevelof ;managingsystem,andbetweentheunstableworldenergysup- ;plyandthelimitedenergystorageinChinaarethemainfactors ;ofenergycrisisinShandong,whichnotonlyresultsinenergy ;shortage,butalsobecomesthebarrierofeconomicandsocial ;development.Inordertoensuresufficientenergysupplyfor ;Shandongprovinceinthe21stcentury,weshouldtakecounter- ;measures,suchaschangingtheeconomicdevelopmentmodel, ;pursuingamultipleandhighqualityenergystrategy,improving ;theintensiveurbanizationstrategy,andbuildingascientificen

    ;ergysystem.

    ;Keywords:energy,effects,countermeasure,ShandongProvince ;1Introduction

    ;Asoneofthecountrieswiththetensestrelationship ;betweenhumanbeingsandtheland.Chinaanditsregions ;arefacingthebigchallengeofitsweakresourcesbasesfor ;sustainabledevelopment(ZhangandLiu,2006).Energy ;resources,thebasicenergysourceforeconomicandsocial

;development,isbecomingthekeyintheprocessofsustain

    ;abledevelopmentbecauseofitsdominatingpositionamong ;variousnaturalresources(Yan,1997).whichhasbeen ;testedduringtheurbanizationprocessinChina.Inthepast ;tenyears,energyconsumptioninChinahasbeenincreasing ;Correspondingauthor:腑增Chengxin(wcx315@yahoo.corncn) ;88ChineseJournalofPopulati0n,ResourcesandEnvimnment2008Vo1.6No.4

    ;quicklywiththehighspeedurbanizationandindustrializa

    ;tion.Energycrisisismoreandmorerigorousasthemain ;energyresourcesareexhaustinginthenearfuture,suchas ;petroleumandcoa1.Ensuringenergysupplyisnotonlya ;keyjssueofthesustainabledevelopmentinthe21stcentury ;inChinabutalsoafocalpointintheworldfZhangandLiu, ;2006).Chinaissufferingfromtheenergyproblemof’whocan

    ;warmChina’aftersuccessfuIlysolving’whocanfeedChina’.

    ;Numerousscholarshavedoneresearchesonthiskey ;issue(ZhouandTang,2003;Zhangeta1.,2004;Guanet ;a1.,2006;Zhang,2006).Studiesshowthatthereisaclose ;relationshipbetweenenergycrisisandthequickurbaniza

    ;tioninChina(Yu,2001;Zheng,2006).ShandongProvince ;isabiglocalitywithalargepopulationinChina,outr)utting ;andatthesametimeconsumingahugeamountofenergy ;everyyear.Sincethe’reformandopening-up’policywas

    ;implementedinl978,Shandonghasmaderapidgrowthand ;significantprogressinitsurbanizationandindustrializatiOn. ;Therapidprogressinurbanizationandindustrializationhas ;broughtgreatdrivetostimulatetheeconomicandsocial ;developmentofShandongwhiletheconflictsinenergy ;scaleandstructurebecomemoreandmoreacutebecause ;ofthefastdevelopment.Alongwiththecontinuousgrowth ;inGDP,therapidgrowthinenergyconsumptionisthe ;mostsignificantissueandbringsaverybigtroubletothis ;province.Asaneconomicallydevelopedprovincealongthe ;coastofChina.populationinShandongaccountsfor7.1% ;ofthatofthewholecountrywhileitslandaccountsfor ;1.64%andGDPl0_2%.However,italsoconsumed11.2% ;ofthegrossamountofenergyin2005.Theenergyissues ;thathaveemergedinShandongaretypicalandrepresenta

    ;tiveofsomephenomenawidelyexistinginChina.Besides. ;theeconomicstructureandpatternofShandongalsohave ;somesimilaritieswithmostoftheotherdevelopedorrap- ;idlydevelopingregions.Therefore,theresearchintoenergy ;issuesarisingfromtheurbanizationinShandongwillnot ;onlyhelptoresolvetheactualproblemsinShandong,but

    ;canalsobeusedforreferencewhenresearchesaretobe ;conductedintootherregionsorthecountryasawhole. ;2Currentstateofenergyissues

    ;2.1Decreaseofself-sufficiencyrateandmoreacute ;conflictbetweendemandandsupply

    ;Shandongisrichinenergyresource.Howeveralong ;withthecontinuousincreaseintheenergyconsumption ;ofShandong,theself-supplyhasfailedtomeetitsneed. ;Since2000,Shandonghasturnedfromaprovinceexport

    ;mgenergyintoaprovinceimportingenergy.Especially ;duringtheTenthFiveYearPlanperiod(2001-2005),the ;energyconsumptionincreasedsharplywhileitsenergy ;outputremainedstable.thusresultinginahigherlevelof ;dependenceonoutsideenergy(Fig.11.In2005,theself- ;sufficiencyrateofcoalwas58.3%andthatofnaturalgas ;was62%.Accordingtothedatafortheprevious20years,it ;canbepredictedthattheenergyconsumptionofShandong ;willremaininasharpup-?goingmomentumwiththefollow-? ;ingfiveyears(Table1)usingSPSSstatisticalmode.The ;conflictbetweendemandandsupplywillbemoreacute. ;2.2Monotonousstructureofoutputandconsumption ;withlowstability

    ;Thestructureofenergyconsumptionandoutputisquite ;monotonous.focusingoncoal,whilecrudeoilconstitutesa ;minorpartandalmostnorenewableenergyisbeingdeve1. ;opedorused.Solarwaterheatertechnologyisverymature. ;butonly3%ofhouseholdsareitsusers.Generationbypho. ;tovoltaiccells.solarheatandotherhigh.endsolartechno1. ;ogyhasnotbeenrealizedinShandong.Thedevelopmentof ;Table1ForecastforoutputandconsumptionofenergyinShan- ;dongattheendofthelltbFiveYearPlanperiod(2006-2010) ;Source:StatisticalYearbookofShandongof2006 ;Note:SCE-StandardCoalEquivalent

    ;30000

    ;25000

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    ;Fig.IMovementofontputandconsu-mptionofprimaryenergy ;inShandongduringthepast15years

    ;windenergy,oceanenergy,andgeothermalenergyremain ;atthestartingpoint,andgasificationaswellasliquefac

    ;tionofbiomassenergYisstillattheinitialphase.In2005. ;theglobalconsumptionstructureofprimaryenergycould ;bespecifiedas:crudeoilaccountedfor36.4%.naturalgas ;23.5%.coal27.8%waterelectricity6.8%,andnuclear ;energy6.0%.ButmeanwhileinShandong.coalaccounted ;for80.2%.crudeoill8.8%andothers1%.Comparedto ;theglobalstructure,Shandongishighlydependentoncoal, ;resultinginacharacteroflowqualityandmonotonous ;consumptionmix.Andsincetenyearsago.thischaracter ;hasbecomemoreprominent.Owingtothis,thecompeti. ;tiveedgeofindustrialgoodsmadeinShandongisgradually ;weakenedowingtotheirhighcostsincu~edbysuchenergy ;consumption.andShandong’seconomyiseasilyaffected

    ;bythefluctuationindomesticorforeignenergymarkets. ;2.3Backwardconsumingmodeswithlowefficiency ;TheenergyconsumptionofShandongismainlyconcen- ;tratedinthemanufacturing.especiallyintraditionalmanu

    ;facturingwithhighenergyconsumptionandlowoutput. ;ThatiswhyShandongalwaysconsumessomuchenergy. ;Thevalueaddedwhichisrealizedfromelectricimeta1. ;1urgy,chemicalindustry,manufactureofbuildingmaterials, ;paper.makingandotherfivetraditionaltradesrepresentsa ;halfofthegrossamount,buttheenergyconsumptionby ;themaccountsfor88%.Besides.theutilizationefficiencyof ;energyinShandongisverylow.Accordingtothestatistics ;publishedbytheBureauofStatisticsofShandong,theraw ;coalusedbypowerplantsinShandongin2005amounted ;ChineseJ.uma1ofP.pulation,ResourcesandEnvimnment2008Vo1.6No489

    ;u?0?00000—

    ;0O4milliontons(76milliontonSofSeE).butthepower ;theygeneratedwasonlyequa1to23.40milliontonsofSCE. ;i.e.iust30%oftheenergyofthecoalwastransformedto ;electricpower.Theenergylossduringthegenerationpro- ;cesswasequivalentto30%ofthegrossamountofenergY ;consumptionbylargeindustrialenterprisesaboveacertain ;scale.Wecanclearlyseethatfromthemovementofelas. ;ticityratioofenergyconsumption.Theelasticityratiore. ;mainedfarabovelf0rthepastfiveyearsinarow(in2002. ;itevenreached1.56).over200%higherthantheaverage ;valueofthe1980sandl990s(seeFig.2.

    ;2.4BadeffectsonenvlronmentandIowIeveIofdevel- ;opmentofenvironmentalprotection

    ;Sincecoalburningbringsmuchpollutiontotheenviron

    ;ment,anenergyconsumptionstructurewithcoaloccupying

    ;adominantpartisnotfavorabletoenvironmentalprotec. ;tion.Thesuddenlyincreasedomissionofsulfurdioxidein ;Shandongprovinceinthepasttwoyearsmustbearesult ;oftheoveruseofcoa1.Asweknow.rawcoalcausesvery

     ;badeffectsonenvironment.soscreeningrawcoalisareq

    ;uisiteconditiontousecoalproperly.However,thescreen

    ;ingrateofrawcoalinShandongisverylow.In2005.the ;screenedrawcoa1onlyaccountedforaround3O%ofthe ;grossamountoftheindustrialprimarycoalconsumed ;whilethescreeningrateofthedevelopedcountriesreached ;70%-80%then.Furthermore.therawcoalthatwouldbe ;processedorconverteddoesnotmakeahighpercentage.At ;present.only72.0%ofrawcoalcanbeprocessedandcon

    ;vertedbymeansofelectricitygenerationorotherprocesses. ;MuchrawcoaIisiustdirectlyconsumedbyterminalusers. ;Yea

    ;Fig.2Movementofelasticityratioofenergyconsumptionin ;ShandongandChinaduringthepast20years

    ;90CbineseJournalofPopuIati0n.ResourcesandEnvironmf2008Vol6No.4

    ;Thiskindofconsumingmodenotonlyresultsinalowlevel ;ofcomprehensiveutilizationofenergy,butalsocauses ;verybadeffectsonenvironment.Astotheenvironmental

    ;protectionenergy,sizableandformalizedutilizationhasnot ;beenachievedinShandongProvince.

    ;3Multipleeffectsimposedbytheenergyprob-

    ;lem

    ;Energyconstitutestobeacrucialmaterialfoundationfor ;economicandsocialdevelopment.Onceanenergycrisis ;comesup,itwillimposeafull-fledgedimpactontheeco- ;nomicandsocialdevelopment.Theenergycrisisresulting ;fromthefast-growingurbanizationinShandongnotonly ;restrictstheeconomicdevelopmentofthisprovince.but ;alsobringsaboutaseriesofrelatedeffectsontheenvironment, ;socialcommtmityandotherfields.Ithascastavastshadowonthe ;processoftheoveralldevelopmentofShandong. ;3.1Restrictingthehealthydevelopmentoftheregional ;economy

    ;Energynotonlypromoteseconomicgrowth,butalsois ;theimportantbasicmaterialformanyindustries.Thecapa

    ;bilityandtheoperationstateofmodemenergysupplysecu

    ;ritysystemsareplayingamoreandmoreimportantrolein ;howfastthenationalorregionaleconomygrowsandwhich ;levelitcanreach(Zhangeta1.,2004).Infact,theenergyis

    ;suesinShandongreflecta’sub.healthy’stateofitseconom—

    ;icdevelopment.First,thevaluesofenergyconsumption ;elasticitycoefficientsfortheprevioussevera1years(above ;1inarow)indicatethatindustrialprogressinShandongis ;principallybasedonthedevelopmentofindustriesconsum

    ;ingalargeamountofenergy.Suchalowgradeindustrial

    ;mixwouldnotbehelpfultoreachtheprovincialstrategic ;goalofbeinganeconomicallystrongprovince,nottospeak

    called’worldmanufacturingcenter’,which,es. ;oftheso

    ;tablishedonthebasisofsuchanindustrialmix.wouldnot ;besustainable.Second.theproductioninterruptionresult

    ;ingfromaninsufficientenergysupplybringsagreatdealof ;economiclOSS.Owingtosuchinsumciency,theproductive ;capabilityoflotsofindustria1enterprisesisunabletobe ;madefulluseof.Alargeamountofequipmentandlabor ;areputinanidiestate(sometimesinastateof’working

    ;OOO0O05O5O?_.

    ;.c_|00【】?Il0I1??

    ;forfourdaysandstoppingforthreedayswithinaweek’),

    ;whichleadstoagreatwasteinmanpower,materials,and ;financialresources.Third,thecontinuouslyup-goingen? ;ergypricesincreasetheproductioncostsandreducethe ;competitiveedgeofproductsinthemarket.Thehighlevel ;ofenergyconsumptiondirectlyreducestheearningability ;ofindustrialenterprisesinShandong.In2004,thelargein- ;dustrialenterprisesaboveacertainscaletogetherachieved ;atotalamountofprofitof138.6billionyuanRMBwhile ;theproductionscostsarisingfromuseofcoal,coke,electric ;power,gasoline,anddieseloilalsoincreased50.75billion ;yuanRMBcomparedto2003.

    ;3.2Ag8:ravatingenvironmentalpollution

    ;Thebiggestside-effectbroughtbyenergyconsumption ;isenvironmentalpollution.Shandong’senergyconsump-

    ;tionstructurewithcoalconsumptionmakingthebiggest ;parthasbroughtustwomajorproblems:oneisrelatively ;lowutilizationeciency;theotherisseriousenvironmental ;pollution.SincetherearemanysmalIandmedium.sizeden. ;terpriseswithbackwardtechnologyandprocesses,alarge ;amountoffluedustandharmfulgasareusuallydirectly ;emittedtotheairwithoutanytreatment.Froml952to ;2000.thelevelofcarbonemissionofShandonggradually ;increasedfromtherankofamiddleplacetotheNo.1place ;inChina(Zhang,2006).InShandong,90%ofSO2and ;85%ofCOareemittedfromcoalburning.Accordingto ;theocialjournalaboutenvironmentalstateofShandong

    ;of2005.thetotalamountofS0,emittedwas2.003mil. ;1iontons,lO%higherthanthatin2004.And.industria1SO, ;emissionrepresented85.7%ofthetotalamountwhilethat ;fromthegenerationorsupplyofpowerandheataccounted ;for61.5%oftheindustrialemission.Thetotalamountof ;fluedustemittedwas6l9thousandtons.7.5%higherthan ;thatin2Oo4.And.industriafluedustemissionrepresented

    ;78.4%ofthetotalamountwhilethatfromthegeneration ;orsupplyofpowerandheataccountedfor46.8%ofthe ;industrialemission.In2002theeconomiclossarisingfrom ;atmosphericpollutionreached12.6379billionyuanRMB. ;equivalentto1.2%ofGDPofShandongofthatyear(Xu ;andZhao.2004).AstheleaderoftheNationalLeading ;GrouptoAddressClimateChangeandEnergyConserva. ;tionandEmissionReductionemphasized,Chinamustfully ;understandtheextremeimportanceandurgencytostrength. ;enourworkonenergyconservationandemissionreduction ;andaddressclimatechangesfromanoverallandstrategic ;pointofview..

    ;3.3Affectingtheurbanizationprocess

    ;Asanoutcomeofhumancivilization,urbanizationisan ;importantindicatortothesocialprogress.Fromnowon,the ;nextdecadewillbeacriticalphaseforShandong’surban—

    ;ization.Accordingtothel1thFiveYearPlanofShandong. ;theurbanizationrateofShandongwillreachabove50% ;bv2010.Atthiscriticalphase.acertainlevelofurbaniza

    ;tionspeedbesidesqualitymustbesecuredandimproved. ;However,theshortageofenergyandtheextensivecon? ;sumptionmodewillbeanegativefactorhinderingnotonly ;thehealthyeconomicdevelopmentofcitiesbutalsothe ;urbanizationofthewholeprovince.Meanwhile.theshort- ;ageofoil,gasandcoalandtheincreaseinpriceswillaffect ;thenaturaloperationofcitiesandalsolowertheworking ;conditionsandlivingqualityofurbanresidents.Inthe2lst ;century,thecityistheprincipallocalitywherepeoplelive ;together.Ifshortageandimproperuseofenergyresultina ;worseconditionofeconomy,communityandenvironmentin ;cities.theurbanizationwilllosethesignificanceitshouldhave. ;3.4Wideningthegapsbetweendifferentregionsand ;betweenruraIandurbanareas

    ;Theconstructionofredundantprojectsinhighenergy ;consumptionindustriesinShandongandotherdeveloped ;provinceswillnotbefavorabletooptimizingandupgrad

    ;ingindustrialstructuresintheseprovinces.Meanwhile,

    ;thesamestructureinthecentralandwesternregionswill ;nothelptorealizeareasonablearrangementandindustry ;divisioninChina.Furthermore,itwilladverselyaffect ;theeconomicdevelopmentincentralandwesternregions. ;Besides,lowgradedevelopmentofurbanindustriesisalso ;harmfultoruralareas.Asaresult,thegapsbetweendiffer- ;entregionsandbetweenurbanandruralareaswillbecome ;widerandwider,makingconflictsincurredbysuchgaps ;moreacuteandseriouslyaffectingtheconstructionofthe ;harmonioussociety.

    ;Energyisthe’food’forindustrialdevelopment.Onthe

    ;analogyofthis,wetrytoraiseaconceptcalled’Industrial

    ;Engel’sCo

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