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Section I Market Analysis

By Ashley Moore,2014-03-13 10:47
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In an attempt to determine the feasibility of building a wellness and sports complex in the City of Waterloo, Iowa, a market analysis that looks at the

     Waterloo Wellness & Sports Complex Market Analysis

    Section I Demographic Summary & Market Review

    In an attempt to determine the feasibility of building a wellness and sports complex in the City of Waterloo, Iowa, a market analysis that looks at the demographic realities of the region and reviews the existing sports and recreation facilities in the market area has been undertaken.

    The following is a summary of the basic demographic characteristics of the greater Waterloo area and a comparison with basic sports participation standards as produced by the National Sporting Goods Association.

    Service Area: The focus of the wellness and sports complex will be to serve the residents of the Cedar Valley. However, depending on the amenities that are included in the facility the market area could vary dramatically. As a result a primary, secondary and tertiary service area has been identified. The primary service area consists of the City of Waterloo, Elk Run, Hudson and Evansdale. The secondary service area expands the primary market to include Cedar Falls. The tertiary service area is even larger and includes most of the Cedar Valley. Use by individuals outside of these identified service areas will be limited to special events or visitors to the area.

    Primary and secondary service areas are usually defined by the distance people will travel on a regular basis (a minimum of once a week) to utilize a recreation facility or its programs. Use by individuals in the tertiary service area will be more limited and specialized in nature.

    Service areas can also vary in size with the types of components that are included in a facility. A center with an indoor pool and other active elements (weight cardiovascular equipment area, gym, track, etc.) will generally have a larger primary service area than a more passively oriented facility. Specialized facilities such as a sports field house will have even larger service areas that make them more of a regional destination.

Based upon the facility’s proximity to major thoroughfares, along with amenities included in the

    facility, the market may increase or decrease. Another factor impacting use is the presence of alternative service providers in the greater Waterloo area. Alternative service provides can have an impact upon membership, daily admissions and the associated penetration rates for programs.

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     Waterloo Wellness & Sports Complex Market Analysis

    1Service Area Statistics and Comparison:

Population Comparison:

     2000 Census 2008 Estimate 2013 Projection Primary Service Area 77,533 76,747 76,907 Secondary Service Area 113,177 113,472 114,304 Tertiary Service Area 184,395 186,180 187,915

    Number of Households Comparison:

     2000 Census 2008 Estimate 2013 Projection Primary Service Area 31,601 32,172 32,445 Secondary Service Area 44,235 45,801 46,424 Tertiary Service Area 71,393 74,293 75,486

Number of Families Comparison:

     2000 Census 2008 Estimate 2013 Projection Primary Service Area 20,273 20,181 19,974 Secondary Service Area 27,722 27,997 27,813 Tertiary Service Area 47,389 48,257 48,183

    Average Household Size Comparison

     2000 Census 2008 Estimate 2013 Projection Primary Service Area 2.40 2.34 2.33 Secondary Service Area 2.42 2.36 2.34 Tertiary Service Area 2.46 2.40 2.38 United States 2.59 2.59 2.59

    Source U.S. Census Bureau and ESRI

     1 Information is based upon the 2000 Census Data and then estimates for 2008 and 2013. The estimates for 2009

    and 2014 have not been released to date. Ballard*King & Associates Page 2 of 51

Waterloo Wellness & Sports Complex Market Analysis

Primary Service Area Map:

Ballard*King & Associates Page 3 of 51

     Waterloo Wellness & Sports Complex Market Analysis

    Population Distribution by Age: Utilizing census information for the Primary Service Area, the following comparisons are possible.

Table A 2008 Primary Service Area Age Distribution

    (ESRI estimates)

    Ages Population % of Total Nat. Population Difference

    -5 5,309 6.9% 7.0% -0.1%

    5-17 12,759 16.8% 17.3% -0.5%

    18-24 7,040 9.1% 9.9% -0.8%

    25-44 20,793 27.0% 27.4% -0.4%

    45-54 10,889 14.2% 14.6% -0.4%

    55-64 8,660 11.3% 11.1% 0.2%

    65-74 5,160 6.7% 6.4% 0.3%

    75+ 6,137 8.0% 6.2% 1.8%

    Population: 2008 census estimates in the different age groups in the service area. % of Total: Percentage of the service area population in the age group.

    National Population: Percentage of the national population in the age group.

    Difference: Percentage difference between the service area population and the national population.

Chart A 2008 Primary Service Area Age Group Distribution

    30

    25

    20

    Primary Service Area15

    National Population10

    5

    0-55yrs-1718-2525-4445-5455-6465-7475+

    The demographic makeup of the Primary Service Area, when compared to the characteristics of the national population, indicates that they are slightly different, with a larger population in the

    55-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups and a smaller population in the -5, 5-17, 18-24, 25-44 and 45-

    54 age groups. The greatest positive variance in percentage is in the 75+ age category with 1.8%

    and the greatest negative variance is in the 18-24 age category with -0.8%.

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     Waterloo Wellness & Sports Complex Market Analysis

    Population Distribution Comparison by Age: Utilizing census information from the Primary

    Service Area, the following comparisons are possible.

Table B 2008 Primary Service Area Population Estimates

    (U.S. Census Information and ESRI)

    Ages 2000 2008 2013 Percent Percent

    Population Population Population Change Change Nat’l

    -5 5,414 5,309 5,292 -2.3% 18.1%

    5-17 13,877 12,759 12,527 -9.7% 3.4%

    18-24 8,031 7,040 6,972 -13.2% 20.1%

    25-44 21,247 20,793 19,951 -6.1% 0.7%

    45-54 10,714 10,889 10,360 -3.3% 27.6%

    55-64 6,563 8,660 10,037 52.9% 69.3%

    65-74 5,648 5,160 5,666 0.3% 25.7%

    75+ 6,040 6,137 6,104 1.1% 24.5%

Chart B Primary Service Area Population Growth

    25000

    20000

    150002000

    2008100002013

    5000

    0-55yrs-1718-2425-4445-5455-6465-7475+

    Table-B, looks at the growth or decline in age group numbers from the 2000 census until the year 2013. It is projected that the age categories of -5, 5-17, 18-24, 25-44 and 45-54 will see a decrease, while the 55-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups will experience an increase. It must be remembered that the population of the United States as a whole is aging and it is not unusual to find negative growth numbers in the younger age groups and net gains nearing 70% in the 45 plus age groupings in communities which are relatively stable in their population numbers. Ballard*King & Associates Page 5 of 51

     Waterloo Wellness & Sports Complex Market Analysis

    Below is listed the distribution of the population by race and ethnicity for the Primary Service Area based on 2008 population estimates.

Table C Primary Service Area Ethnic Population and Median Age

    Ethnicity Total Population Percentage of Median Age

    Population

    2Hispanic 2,583 3.4% 23.5

    White 61,823 80.6% 40.4

    Black 10,829 14.1% 27.6

    American Indian 173 0.2% 29.3

    Asian 948 1.2% 32.5

    Pacific Islander 48 0.06% 26.4

    Other 1,361 1.8% 23.9

    Multiple Races 1,561 2.0% 15.9

2008 Primary Service Area Total Population: 76,747 Residents

Source U.S. Census Bureau and ESRI

     2 The Census Bureau and ESRI do not define “Hispanic” as an ethnicity, therefore if you add the percentages you will find them to be great than 100%. Hispanic is included because it is the opinion of Ballard*King & Associates that it important to have as broad of an understanding of the make-up of your service area as possible. Ballard*King & Associates Page 6 of 51

     Waterloo Wellness & Sports Complex Market Analysis The pie-charts below simply provide a graphical representation of the information contained in

    Table C on the previous page.

Table C, Illustration 1 Hispanic Community

     3.40%

     Hispanic Other

     96.60%

Table C, Illustration 2 White v. Other

     19.40%

     White Other

     80.60%

Table C, Illustration 3 Black, American Indian, Asian, Pacific Islander, Other and

    Multiple Races

    Black1.80%2.00%American Indian0.06%Asian 1.20%Pacific Islander

    Other0.20%Multiple Races

    14.10%

    Ballard*King & Associates Page 7 of 51

Waterloo Wellness & Sports Complex Market Analysis

Secondary Service Area Map:

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     Waterloo Wellness & Sports Complex Market Analysis

    Population Distribution by Age: Utilizing census information for the Secondary Service Area, the following comparisons are possible.

Table D 2008 Secondary Service Area Age Distribution

    (ESRI estimates)

    Ages Population % of Total Nat. Population Difference

    -5 6,962 6.1% 7.0% -0.9%

    5-17 16,956 15.1% 17.3% -2.2%

    18-24 16,697 14.7% 9.9% 4.8%

    25-44 29,351 25.9% 27.4% -1.5%

    45-54 15,214 13.4% 14.6% -1.2%

    55-64 12,399 10.9% 11.1% -0.2%

    65-74 7,170 6.3% 6.4% -0.1%

    75+ 8,724 7.7% 6.2% 1.5%

Population: 2008 census estimates in the different age groups in the service area.

    % of Total: Percentage of the service area population in the age group.

    National Population: Percentage of the national population in the age group.

    Difference: Percentage difference between the service area population and the national population.

Chart C 2008 Secondary Service Area Age Group Distribution

    30

    25

    20

    Secondary Service Area15

    National Population10

    5

    0-55yrs-1718-2525-4445-5455-6465-7475+

    The demographic makeup of the Secondary Service Area, when compared to the characteristics of the national population, indicates that they are different, with a larger population in the 18-24 and 75+ age groups and a smaller population in the -5, 5-17, 25-44, 45-54, 55-64 and 65-74 age groups. The greatest positive variance in percentage is in the 18-24 age category with 4.8% and the greatest negative variance is in the 5-17 age category with -2.2%. When compared to the Primary Service Area the Secondary Service Area displays a greater variance in each age category. The demographic characteristics of the Secondary Service Area are heavily impacted by the presence of University of Northern Iowa.

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     Waterloo Wellness & Sports Complex Market Analysis

    Population Distribution Comparison by Age: Utilizing census information from the

    Secondary Service Area, the following comparisons are possible.

Table E 2008 Secondary Service Area Population Estimates

    (U.S. Census Information and ESRI)

    Ages 2000 2008 2013 Percent Percent

    Population Population Population Change Change Nat’l

    -5 6,959 6,962 7,021 0.9% 18.1%

    5-17 18,715 16,956 16,525 -11.7% 3.4%

    18-24 18,976 16,697 16,628 -12.4% 20.1%

    25-44 28,515 29,351 28,867 1.2% 0.7%

    45-54 15,009 15,214 14,261 -5.0% 27.6%

    55-64 9,082 12,399 14,261 57.0% 69.3%

    65-74 7,572 7,170 8,000 5.7% 25.7%

    75+ 8,345 8,724 8,744 4.8% 24.5%

Chart D Secondary Service Area Population Growth

    30000

    25000

    200002000150002008

    100002013

    5000

    0-55yrs-1718-2425-4445-5455-6465-7475+

    Table-E, looks at the growth or decline in age group numbers from the 2000 census until the year 2013. It is projected that the age categories of 5-17, 18-24, and 45-54 will see a decrease, while the -5, 25-44, 55-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups will experience an increase. It must be remembered that the population of the United States as a whole is aging and it is not unusual to find negative growth numbers in the younger age groups and net gains nearing 70% in the 45 plus age groupings in communities which are relatively stable in their population numbers. Ballard*King & Associates Page 10 of 51

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